Charley Advisories

[Brent]

Looks like a Cat 3 is becoming more likely. 10 to 15 feet storm surge will occur. If it slips in just a little north of Tampa, it's going to be a disaster. Better hope it goes south.

[weatherSnoop]

6' is more than the bay can handle in most areas

[Anonymous]

Yes, but while it is ways away from the trough (Like just getting out of Cuba and passing the Keys), the trough could enhance its outflow causing it to deepen quickly.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

NOTE: Also, the emerging eye on satellite pictures shows how the ULL is lessening its effect on Charley.

[Dmetal81]

NHC only puts chance at cat 4 at 10%... where are you getting your numbers from???

[Stormchaser16]

Prolly his own personal analyzation

[Josephine96]

Just looking at the possibility of Charlie making it to Cat 3 status along with a 10-14 ft storm surge and being on east side even this far inland has me thinking..

This could really be a catastrophic storm for a Cat 2 or Cat 3.. It's been a long time since Tampa's seen a storm.. and it's been since 1960 where a hurricane has entered on the Gulf side and may stay a hurricane till it exits on the Atlantic side..

I must say that if anyone on this board from Florida is either close to me or even near the Gulf Coast.. BE VERY CAREFUL..

Stay safe, enjoy the storm if you can.. but be VERY CAREFUL ABOUT IT..

[x-y-no]

I checked some more locations and actually the low tide seems to be a little later than I wrote in most locations - 8-10 pm or so.

That's a bit of good news if the landfall is as forecast.

[wx247]

I am thinking Charley will be a Cat 3 when it arrives.. if it's any stronger.. I hate to say it.. but not only will it be a catastrophe.. but I also think there could be mass casualties since a lot of people in Tampa/St Pete probably think it's no big deal

According to Ed Lavendera of CNN, most people in that area say they think it will miss them and aren't taking appropriate precautions.

[cycloneye]

Bumping as it falls way down rapidly and it is important for those who live in the watch or warning areas.

[Dmetal81]

Worst case scenario would be for it to go inland JUST north of Tampa Bay, maximizing the sw/ne orientation of the bay and really piling that water up. 20ft storm surge in the bay would be possible I think.

[wx247]

Thanks Luis. I hope people in the warned area are taking this thing seriously. It might prove deadly if they don't.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Based on the chances for Rapid Intensification/Deepening.....personal forecasts.

Also, the NHC has a conservative bias.

Plus, as I have explained before, I use actual percentages based on current strength, SSTs, Upper-Air Environment, etc. (not including climatology), whereas the NHC uses modified percentages based on current strength and climatology.

Climatology def = storms in similar locations at similar times with similar strengths and similar possible paths.

[Brent]

Worst case scenario would be for it to go inland JUST north of Tampa Bay, maximizing the sw/ne orientation of the bay and really piling that water up. 20ft storm surge in the bay would be possible I think.

Yes.

[Josephine96]

20 feet of water would not only put parts of Tampa underwater.. it would cause mass damage too

[Guest]

I am thinking Charley will be a Cat 3 when it arrives.. if it's any stronger.. I hate to say it.. but not only will it be a catastrophe.. but I also think there could be mass casualties since a lot of people in Tampa/St Pete probably think it's no big deal

My grandmother is a little north of Tampa and I'm having trouble convincing her of how serious this is. She doesn't want me to come pick her up just yet. She wants to wait and hear more advisories before she makes a decision on whether or not to evacuate.

I have nothing to add as to thoughts about this intensifying. They only thing I can offer is my prayers. Everyone stay safe.
...Jennifer...

[Dmetal81]

When is the last time Tampa bay has seen a direct hit? I know they have a tropical storm almost every year, but I cant seem to remember a hurricane going directly in.

[Anonymous]

After seeing what Andrew did, how can people in Florida just ignore a hurricane? Especially one that could potentially be really powerful when it hits? Astounding.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Yes, If I remember correctly, the Weather Channel did a special on vulnerable cities. Tampa was one, and they showed the worst case scenario...for a Cat 3/4/5 to make landfall between St. Petersburg and Tarpon Springs which would send enormous amounts of water up Tampa Bay, flooding many areas.

[Josephine96]

I'm stuck in the middle here guys.. I'm about 50 miles from Melbourne and 65-70 from Tampa lol..

I'm staying right where I am.. but will be on the lookout for the dangerous weather and be prepared to huddle into my bathroom if it appears necessary..

This is starting to ever so slightly scare me now..