Charley Advisories

#1581 Postby **seahawkjd** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:53 am

Just watched a radar loop on the weather channel and it now has a very very clear eye forming. Definetely looks like its intensifying.

** a visible eye ** thanks for the correction lol

weatherFrEaK · #1582 Postby **weatherFrEaK** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:55 am

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html

The Dark Knight · #1583 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:55 am

TWC mentioned that flood watches may go as far north as cape cod.....Hmmmm.......

Josephine96 · #1584 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:56 am

All Central Florida schools will be closed tomorrow with the expeted arrival of Hurricane Charley..

The only exception is the coastal counties on the Atlantic side. There is no word yet on if those schools will also close..

More details later..

http://www.local6.com

Website · #1585 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:56 am

It had an eye yesterday, we just couldn't see it. :wink:

#1586 Postby **wx247** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:57 am

Yep, there he is... the preview of what is to come.

#1587 Postby **Trader Ron** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:57 am

I believe the last time Tampa has been hit is 1921.

Josephine, are you saying storm surge could reach Kissimmee? I hope you don't mean that.

Josephine96 · #1588 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:57 am

Maybe it doesn't want us to see it's eye lol

Josephine96 · #1589 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:58 am

LOL.. That's not what I said

Josephine96 · #1590 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:58 am

The storm could come this way.. but not the surge

Thunder44 · #1591 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:59 am

URNT12 KNHC 121516
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1516Z
B. 19 DEG 52 MIN N
81 DEG 14 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2949 M
D. 40 KT
E. 319 DEG 027 NM
F. 049 DEG 80 KT
G. 332 DEG 007 NM
H. 980 MB
I. 9 C/ 3081 M
J. 18 C/ 3072 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/7
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF966 0603A CHARLEY OB 17
MAX FL WIND 89 KT NE QUAD 1336Z.

Anonymous · #1592 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 11:00 am

Josephine96 wrote:Maybe it doesn't want us to see it's eye lol

Oh what is he? Shy?

#1593 Postby **MWatkins** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 11:01 am

Just a couple of quick hits...please don't get mad if you have a question and I don't get to it...I'm extreemly busy and probably wont check on here until 3 or 4PM. There are tons of folks here who can answer questions better than I can so go ahead and ask/answer away.

1. Charley seems to be developing the beginnings of a true eye in visible imagery as 1515Z (11:15AM). Also...a period of rapid deepening may already be underway.

2. I'm a bit concerned that Charley could continue to move more rapidly than currently forecast. Pressure heights over Cuba/South Florida are eroding, this will allow Charley to start moving more northward almost immediately. With Bonnie's tail swinging through central FL the ridge may open up and allow Charley to pop out...connect wih the sw flow and end up on a faster track toward west/central Florida.

Again, I would urge here than anyone in a watch/warning area should be watching the forward speed. So far...Charley is only a tad to the left of the 24 hour position forecast from this time yesterday.

More as time permits...

MW

Guest · #1594 Postby **Guest** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 11:01 am

said this word for word two days ago

DoctorHurricane2003 wrote:After analyzing satellite pictures, recon data, and reading the output from the NHC on Charley, I believe that there is a 45% chance of a rapid intensification process initializing...probably sometime overnight tonight as the ULL to the west has less influence on him. Here are some more percentages:

---INTENSIFICATION PROBABILITIES---
(2-4 mb/hour drop or wind increase 10-20 mph in 6-9 hours) Rapid Intensification Process: 45% Chance
(4-6 mb/hour drop or wind increase 20-30 mph in 6-12 hours) Rapid Deepening Process: 39% Chance
(>6 mb/hour drop or wind increase >30 mph in 9-18 hours) Explosive Deepening Process: 27% Chance

---MAXIMUM STRENGTH PROBABILITIES---
Category 3: 87%
Category 4: 52%
Category 5: 29%

debbiet · #1595 Postby **debbiet** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 11:01 am

I'm from SE Virginia, and the approach of Hurricane Isabel last year caused much the same scenario by piling up water into the Chesapeake Bay. It caused catastrophic flooding, far worse than anyone would have expected...and I think that she was just barely a Cat 2 at landfall. (might be mistaken) Winds were never even hurricane force inland, but because the ground had been previously saturated, we lost millions of trees too ...so you don't have to have a massive storm to cause massive damage...I hope the Tampa area is prepared for that possibility.

HouTXmetro · #1596 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 11:02 am

Trader Ron wrote:I believe the last time Tampa has been hit is 1921.

Talk about a hurricane drought. I need to quit complaining.

Hyperstorm · #1597 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 11:02 am

WHAT! This thing is going to BOMB! 3mbs in 1 HOUR! Oh, God....

Josephine96 · #1598 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 11:02 am

LMAO.. maybe..

Maybe he is trying to impress Bonnie lol

#1599 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 11:02 am

OH my!!

Guest · #1600 Postby **Guest** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 11:04 am

Bumping this important piece of info up.

Charley Advisories

Charley Has an eye

BREAKING NEWS:CENTRAL FLORIDA SCHOOLS TO CLOSE..

Charley Pressure down to 980mb

Charley Concerns

Re: Thoughts on Rapid Intensification for Charley

Who is online