Earl Advisories
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- HeatherAKC
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I really dont care what any shear map says. Those shear forecasts have been completely worthless for the 3 storms this year. Which model showed the NE shear over Alex at the start? I'm still waiting for the shear to decrease on Bonnie, and no model had the UL that hindered Charley until it moved into the GOM
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- Tropical Wave
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EARL ?
where u guys think earl go? PENSACOLA FL HERE RIGHT ON THE BEACH AND HOW STRONG U GUYS THINK?
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Unfornatey no rest in the worry after we are geting done with Charly new Problems are on are faces near the ilands with Earl geting better formed.Not a very good thing to see after all of us geting through Charly these last few days.Any body from the western and Centure and Eastern gulf needs to be paying attation over the next week for the track of Earl and the intentey.
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- Steve Cosby
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The weightlifter
The body builder/wrestling champ was talking about the fact that Bonnie was traveling with the shear and could have been enhanced by the jet.
Could it be the storms are just heading in the right direction and in the perfect spot to benefit?
Could it be the storms are just heading in the right direction and in the perfect spot to benefit?
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Very good point!!!!
Derek Ortt wrote:I really dont care what any shear map says. Those shear forecasts have been completely worthless for the 3 storms this year. Which model showed the NE shear over Alex at the start? I'm still waiting for the shear to decrease on Bonnie, and no model had the UL that hindered Charley until it moved into the GOM
Very point Derek Ortt.
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- Aquawind
- Category 5
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Re: The weightlifter
Steve Cosby wrote:The body builder/wrestling champ was talking about the fact that Bonnie was traveling with the shear and could have been enhanced by the jet.
Could it be the storms are just heading in the right direction and in the perfect spot to benefit?
LOL..nice description of JB ...Absolutely..Often is the case when they make the NE turn..
Glad to see the track is a tad further south Derek..
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- stormchazer
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Batten down the hatches and report to us when it is safe. Take Care!
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Opinions my own.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Opinions my own.
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11pm Earl
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT AUG 14 2004
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES...AND ST. LUCIA. INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 225 MILES... 360 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WILL BE DETERIORATING TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
EARL.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 56.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT AUG 14 2004
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES...AND ST. LUCIA. INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 225 MILES... 360 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.
EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WILL BE DETERIORATING TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
EARL.
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 56.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.
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