Earl Advisories

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HeatherAKC
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#161 Postby HeatherAKC » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:09 pm

Take care!
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perk
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EARL LOOKING GOOD!

#162 Postby perk » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:11 pm

Check out the latest infrared loop.
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#163 Postby Aquawind » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:14 pm

Yep..some good convection around the LLC now..I would agree with strengthening..
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Derek Ortt

#164 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:14 pm

I really dont care what any shear map says. Those shear forecasts have been completely worthless for the 3 storms this year. Which model showed the NE shear over Alex at the start? I'm still waiting for the shear to decrease on Bonnie, and no model had the UL that hindered Charley until it moved into the GOM
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CoyoteUglyGurl
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EARL ?

#165 Postby CoyoteUglyGurl » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:16 pm

where u guys think earl go? PENSACOLA FL HERE RIGHT ON THE BEACH AND HOW STRONG U GUYS THINK?
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#166 Postby weatherfan » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:18 pm

Unfornatey no rest in the worry after we are geting done with Charly new Problems are on are faces near the ilands with Earl geting better formed.Not a very good thing to see after all of us geting through Charly these last few days.Any body from the western and Centure and Eastern gulf needs to be paying attation over the next week for the track of Earl and the intentey.
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Steve Cosby
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The weightlifter

#167 Postby Steve Cosby » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:21 pm

The body builder/wrestling champ was talking about the fact that Bonnie was traveling with the shear and could have been enhanced by the jet.

Could it be the storms are just heading in the right direction and in the perfect spot to benefit?
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Stormcenter
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Very good point!!!!

#168 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:22 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I really dont care what any shear map says. Those shear forecasts have been completely worthless for the 3 storms this year. Which model showed the NE shear over Alex at the start? I'm still waiting for the shear to decrease on Bonnie, and no model had the UL that hindered Charley until it moved into the GOM


Very point Derek Ortt.
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~SirCane
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#169 Postby ~SirCane » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:24 pm

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Re: The weightlifter

#170 Postby Aquawind » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:26 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:The body builder/wrestling champ was talking about the fact that Bonnie was traveling with the shear and could have been enhanced by the jet.

Could it be the storms are just heading in the right direction and in the perfect spot to benefit?


LOL..nice description of JB ...Absolutely..Often is the case when they make the NE turn..

Glad to see the track is a tad further south Derek..
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#171 Postby stormchazer » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:27 pm

Batten down the hatches and report to us when it is safe. Take Care!
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.

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#172 Postby GalvestonDuck » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:28 pm

Brent wrote:That's 5 named storms in the last 14 days.

I can't get that song out of my head "Goodbye Earl" LOL

It sounds nerdy and rednecky.


Darn! Ya beat me to it!

I can't wait til we sing "...cuz Earl had to die!! Na na na na naaaaa naaaaa naaaaa, bye Earrrrrrrrrrrrl!"
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#173 Postby bahamaswx » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:33 pm

Any shear will diminish and remain generally favorable for development within the Caribbean through 72hrs.
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Brent
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11pm Earl

#174 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:33 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SAT AUG 14 2004

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST.
VINCENT...THE GRENADINES...TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES...AND ST. LUCIA. INTERESTS AROUND THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST
OR ABOUT 225 MILES... 360 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
WILL BE DETERIORATING TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
EARL.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...11.3 N... 56.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
AST.
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#neversummer

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#175 Postby Stormchaser16 » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:34 pm

Shear MAPS show it, but as Derek told me, look at WV..... favorable favorable favorable

These shear maps have really been blowing chunks
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#176 Postby Ixolib » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:35 pm

nikolai wrote:Summing up everyones thoughts currently, Earl could be a major cane when it landfalls some where between Baton Rouge and the Florida Keys. People need to watch this carefully.


When did Baton Rouge move to the coast??? LOL...
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#177 Postby Renata » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:35 pm

Nice periodic heavy showers on the west coast ... nice and cosy :)
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#178 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:46 pm

Earl's 11 PM Discussion is the shortest I have ever seen. Also, I doesn't say if the storm is better organized or not, but by just looking at the images you can say it's getting its act together, I can't wait for the RECON tomorrow!
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#179 Postby amawea » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:46 pm

Thanks for the real time update. Take care
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#180 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:48 pm

On top of Earl, there is also the triplets from hell! Danielle is one, which isn't likely to hit, but there are also two other strong low pressures gearing up to head into the Atlantic!!!
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