Charley Advisories

[Bane]

The image definitely isn't working.

[CaluWxBill]

Correction 101.1 MPH 87.8 knots

[dixiebreeze]

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO

GMZ089-100330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004
CORRECTED SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPSIS
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE NEAR 23.2N 88.7W 1007 MB AT
2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 10 KT. BONNIE WILL MOVE TO NEAR 24.3N
90.0W AT 0600 UTC AUG 10...NEAR 25.3N 90.3W AT 1800 AUG 10...
26.5N 90.2W AT 0600 UTC AUG 11...27.4N 89.5W AT 1800 UTC AUG
11...30.0N 86.5W AUG 12...THEN INLAND NEAR 34.0N 80.5W AT 1800
UTC AUG 13. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N83W TO 1015 MB
LOW CENTER NEAR 30N91W. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL WEAKEN WHILE
MOVING N OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE
INTO THE NW GULF WATERS THU. BONNIE WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE FRONT
AND N OF AREA FRI AS THE FRONT STALLS FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO
E TEXAS AND DISSIPATES BY SAT. A HURRICANE IN THE SE CARIBBEAN
FRI MAY MOVE NW INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO SAT.



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GMZ080-100330-
NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W
INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
430 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 26N E OF 91W

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXPECTED FROM 25N TO 28N TUE NIGHT AND
WED...

TONIGHT
N OF 27N E OF 95W WIND VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2
TO 3 FT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.

TUE THROUGH WED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS S OF 28N E OF 92W
WITH HIGHEST WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT AND HIGHEST SEAS 17
FT NEAR CENTER OF BONNIE. ELSEWHERE E OF 94W WIND NLY 20 TO 25
KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA WIND NE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4
TO 7 FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS E PART.

WED NIGHT
E OF 92W WIND W TO NW 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
ELSEWHERE WIND VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

THU
WIND SW TO W 10 KT SHIFTING NLY 10 KT N OF FRONT. SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG FRONT.

FRI
N OF FRONT WIND N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. S OF
FRONT WIND VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

SAT
WIND NE 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.



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GMZ082-100330-
SW GULF S OF 25N W OF 90W
430 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 23N E OF 91W

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXPECTED TUE NIGHT N OF 24N E OF
91W...

TONIGHT
N OF 22N E OF 93W TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH
HIGHEST WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT AND HIGHEST SEAS 15 FT
NEAR CENTER OF BONNIE. ELSEWHERE E OF 94W WIND NLY 20 TO 25 KT
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. REMAINDER AREA WIND NE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7
FT. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS E PART.

TUE AND TUE NIGHT
N OF 24N E OF 92W WIND SW TO W 20 TO 25 KT.
SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE E OF 94W WIND W TO NW 10 TO 15 KT.
SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. REMAINDER AREA WIND NE TO E 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT. LOCALLY HIGHER WIND AND SEAS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS NEAR BONNIE.

WED
WIND VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT WITH N SWELL.

WED NIGHT AND THU
WIND BECOMING SE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 TO 2
FT.

FRI AND SAT
WIND VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING N TO NE 10
KT BY SAT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.



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GMZ084-100330-
MIDDLE GULF BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
430 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 88W

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXPECTED FROM 25N TO 27NW OF 89W TUE
NIGHT AND WED...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT AND THU N OF
27N...

HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE S OF 23N E OF 86W SAT


TONIGHT AND TUE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHEST WIND
45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT AND HIGHEST SEAS 17 FT NEAR CENTER OF
BONNIE. ELSEWHERE S OF 26N WIND SLY 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11
FT. N OF 26N WIND VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. NUMEROUS TSTMS
S PART AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ELSEWHERE.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH HIGHEST
WIND 50 KT GUSTS TO 60 KT AND HIGHEST SEAS 20 FT NEAR CENTER OF
BONNIE. ELSEWHERE N OF 25N WIND 20 TO 30 KT SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. S
OF 25N WIND SLY 15 TO 20 KT SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. NUMEROUS TSTMS N
PART.

FRI
S OF 24N E OF 87W WIND WIND VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.

SAT
HIGHEST WIND 70 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 85 KT NEAR CENTER OF
HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS OVER THE SE PART. ELSEWHERE S OF 25N WIND NW TO N 20 TO 30
KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. FROM 27N TO 25N WIND NLY 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS
2 TO 4 FT. N OF 27N WIND VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SPIRAL BANDS
WITHIN 180 NM OF HURRICANE.



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GMZ086-100330-
E GULF BETWEEN 81W AND 85W
430 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004

HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT S OF 23N W OF 82W


TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT
N OF 28N WIND VARIABLE 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. FROM 26N TO 28N WIND SE 10 KT. SEAS 1 TO 2
FT. S OF 26N WIND E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ELSEWHERE.

WED
N OF 25N WIND S TO SW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. S OF
25N WIND SE TO S 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 27N.

THU
N OF 26N WIND S 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. S OF 26N
WIND VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS N OF 27N. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 27N.

FRI
N OF FRONT WIND NE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. S OF FRONT
TO 27N WIND SW 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. FROM 27N TO 25N WIND
VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT. S OF 25N WIND ELY 10 KT. SEAS
2 TO 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N.

SAT
HIGHEST WIND 70 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 85 KT NEAR CENTER OF
HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS ELSEWHERE OVER THE S PART. ELSEWHERE S OF 25N WIND NE TO E
20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. N OF 25N WIND N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT.
SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. SPIRAL BANDS WITHIN 180 NM OF HURRICANE.



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FORECASTER NELSON

[cycloneye]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

Here is another grafic for TD#3 models.

[Deenac813]

Thanks Stormchaser. I know they are very far apart but I was wondering if one would have an effect on the other. Weather is a tricky thing

[goodlife]

thanks!!

[bahamaswx]

Those are winds at 950mb; take off ~20%

[CaluWxBill]

Those are winds at 950mb; take off ~20%

well okay then it is 81 mph.

[Bane]

Wow, 110 KTS. That is certainly possible.

[Aquawind]

MW just mentioned this on the Radio and it's more of a indirect influence..Bonnie could erode the Ridge over the Atlantic and the changing the mean layer stearing for a quicker turn..it's really is all to hard to tell being the strenght of both sytems is unknown..

Here is MW earlier post...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=35817

[tracyswfla]

That model brings it knocking on my door! Ughhhh.

[Derek Ortt]

if anything, I feel as if I'm being conservative

[Dean4Storms]

Looks very reasonable and something very serious for someone.

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[tallywx]

...which makes sense, considering the predicted landfalling pressure of 983 MB. That, coupled with the small size of the system, would produce roughly an 80 mph storm.

Geez, I don't like that bullseye on Panama City, FL.

Also note how the GFDL initially takes Bonnie on a WNW track, moving west of 90W at 23.5N. Seems like that still doesn't bother the GFDL in predicted a FL landfall.

[goodlife]

so long as it stays away from MY door.....

[stormernie]

No doubt given recent developments the last few hours we will have TS Charley at 11 PM.

I say at least 45 -50 mph...

What do the rest of you think

[dixiebreeze]

Bump for NRL site getting updated.

[Dean4Storms]

I have to say that outside of intensity, the GFDL has been very consistent with bringing Bonnie toward the Panhandle. I was just a bit surprised to see the intensity that high. Looks like we might get an early break from all the tourists, Yiippeeee!!!

[rainstorm]

headed for panama city