Alex Advisories

[dixiebreeze]

News overload, Brent. S2K is good therapy.

[The Dark Knight]

Anything is.....

[Dan]

If I was a resident of the Costal Carolinas, I would be concerned with the fact that Alex is not moving all that much. There's a cold front hung up back in the mountains of North Carolina and the overall opinion is that the front and associated trough would turn Alex towards the north and northeast with some acceleration. The front looks to have all but died out over the mountains with the high still blocking in the Atlantic.

All of this leads to two potentials:

1. It allows more and more time for Alex to become more organized.

2. The longer it stays stationary, it allows the blocking high to become a more dominate steering pattern and could allow Alex to slowly head inland instead to making that expected curve.

All in all, if I am a person with interest in the South Carolina Low Country, I would want to see Alex begin to move sometime soon.

And as SF just said, this could be of benefit to the South Carolina Low Country, but on the otherhand, it's not moving much, so having heavy rains parked over an area would be too much of a good thing.

The 12-24 hours are going to be interesting, IMO...

[Stormchaser16]

Yikes- way too much news goin on today, ADD to ALL of this the 3 bomb blasts in Baghdad today!

[Stormchaser16]

I personally feel that Alex will top out around 50-55 MPH, and most likely right before it starts to go extratropical after it passes by the OBX.

[DerekOrtt]

Its not impossible.

However, one of the SHIPS predictors is how much the system has intensified in the previous 12 hours. Since there has been a 10KT increase, this RI parameter has been met, allowing for a greater increase in the SHIPS forecast

[Stormchaser16]

Good point Derek, I think we will get a better handle on the future strength of this system later tonight as the ridge clears out and the system can maybe pull together a little bit before becoming absorbed into the front.

[The Dark Knight]

Maybe..... THey still have too update some models.... they're still the old ones....

[dixiebreeze]

Yes, SC, not to mention a very active GOM.

[Stormchaser16]

It seems that some afternoon heating combined with some outflow energy from Alex and remnant energy of 90L are firing up some interesting clusters of convection in the GOM.

[DerekOrtt]

After looking at some close up vis loops, I have to say that it appears as if the center under the convection is starting to become dominant. It looks as if the centers to the north are weakening and that the inflow is starting to converge around the new center

[Aquawind]

Geesh I wake up early and watch it pop all morning only to take a nap and wake up to ALEX...Ahhh it feels so goooood..The pain is gone now..

[Stormchaser16]

See my post "Early signs of wrapping"

[Aquawind]

I agree..Alex might actually become worthy of a name according to some..

[DerekOrtt]

Didnt see you post, sorry about that


In any event, I am starting to get concerned about Alex. I am well aware of what usually happens when storms take this track in this area. I want this thing inland by tomorrow morning as I dont even want the possibility of a brief favorable UL period over the Gulfstream

[Brent]

Didnt see you post, sorry about that


In any event, I am starting to get concerned about Alex. I am well aware of what usually happens when storms take this track in this area. I want this thing inland by tomorrow morning as I dont even want the possibility of a brief favorable UL period over the Gulfstream

Dang, we go from a pathetic TD that's barely alive this morning to a strengthening tropical storm stalled and forecasted to hug the coast over the Gulf Stream.

[Stormchaser16]

O no Derek i wasnt trying to say that you repeated my post or anything, we posted at the same time, i was just hoping you could take a look at my post which goes into some detail of some other things that i have noted, and maybe give a response to it.

[ColdFront77]

Corpusbreeze, the 2:00 Intermediate Advisory was issued no later than 1:45pm Eastern
Time, which was exactly a half hour after you made your post/created this thread.

[USAwx1]

Nice pics... Where do you get them?? Is it some pro met program....

Not really, anyone can use it. Same with AWIPS/GEMPAK or PCGRIDDS. All are really great only problem is you have to have a linux OS---it does not run under windows.

[Dan]

After looking at some close up vis loops, I have to say that it appears as if the center under the convection is starting to become dominant. It looks as if the centers to the north are weakening and that the inflow is starting to converge around the new center

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kclx.shtml

Charleston's Doppler also supports the increased inflow towards the blob of precip offshore.

This is going to be an interesting next 12-18 hours.