Charley Advisories

[ncweatherwizard]

Conditions look ripe. Please, if you are in or near the Tampa area, begin preparing now if you haven't already, and consider evacuations--particularly if emergency management officials order them..I know the storm is a long ways away, but we know it's moving fast...act now.

http://www.geocities.com/weatherwizard88/charley.html

[jlauderdal]

From the satellite pictures that I'm looking at I still see a NW movement. IF it contunues, the center should go over that small island and then across the western most portion of Cuba, that is if the NW movement contunues for say the next 6-8 hours.

That small island would be the Isle of Youth. The Isle of Youth has been punded by hurricanes the last few years and twice in about 10 days a few years ago. It is also the place where Fidel Castro was imprisoned before the revolution.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Charley as I type this update is intensifying as an defined eye has appeared and the pressure has dropped 6 mbs from early this morning.Charley is moving NW 310 degrees away from a weak upper low that had restricted the outflow in the western part of the hurricane but now that the influence of the upper low is not a factor the proccess of getting stronger has started this afternoon.I am concerned that Charley may get up to major hurricane status prior to landfall in western Cuba and after that making landfall as a major hurricane in the western Florida coast.All the people in the watch and warning areas should rush to completion the preparations because if the hurricane moves more faster than forecasted then the effects would be felt earlier than anticipated.The most concern to me is the storm surge that will go if a cat 2 or cat 3 hurricane makes landfall near the Tampa Bay area as tides from 5-10 feet and above would invade the beaches and coastlines not only in the Tampa area.Also I want to say that further inland around Orlando and other cities inland those areas if the hurricane gets into Florida form south to north will have tropical storm force winds apart of the tremendous amounts of rain it will fall in the path of Charley.Stay tuned to your local authorities about evacuations in your area and if it is nessesary that evacuation plese do it because you will save your life and of your whole family.

Forecaster Luis Martinez (Cycloneye)

[Scott_inVA]

The CITY of Tampa? Is mandatory? Someone just said in another thread they were waiting.

I saw MANDATORY on the wire @ WREL...but I can NOT confirm that.

[Trader Ron]

TWC Cone moved South.

[Derek Ortt]

troughs can also intensify systems, as was the case with Bonnie for a short time yesterday

[RichG]

trdron do you mean landfall? did the twc cone move east also?

[TexasStooge]

Fox News: We Report, You Correct

LOL!!

[pavelbure224]

MW- I dont know if you noticed this but the clouds just NW of Cuba is moving NE. I dont think its from Bonnie but maybe the trough is coming faster and more south. comments welcome

[MGC]

Looking at the situation this morning I've come to the conclusion that the trough currently digging into the GOM is way stronger than I ever imagined for August. The trough is currently pushing Bonnie on a close to ENE track towards the Florida Big Bend area, a sparcely populated area. Bonnie looks to have begun the extratropical transition. Now on to Charlie. Charlie is getting his act together slowly. An eye is now visible and slow intensification will occur until landfall in Cuba tonight. I expect a NNW track later today with a north track tomorrow morning. Charlie should pass west of Key West. I expect landfall between Sarasoda and Ft Myers as a stong cat 2 hurricane or miminal cat 3.......MGC

[WeatherEmperor]

Interesting. No matter where Charley goes whether it hits Tampa head on or goes north or south it will be huge trouble. If you look closely at the visible pics now you can see Charley's eye forming. Try to use that as an indicator where he is truly going.

<RICKY>

[Aquawind]

Well ..This is gonna be interesting...

[Aquawind]

Told everyone this earlier! Don't be surprised to se Ft meyers back on the target list!

I get Blasted then...

[WeatherEmperor]

You can see from the latest visible Floater over Charley, that the system is beginning to move almost NNW not NW anymore. Perhaps this is just a temporary jog but who knows. But if this is a true NNW motion, then the turn has already begun. So does this mean that he turned sooner then anticipated?

<RICKY>

[Dmetal81]

I would have to disagree with you on that. Charlie is already even with FT. Meyers and if you look at latest water vapor loops you can see his out flow expanding northwestward in response to the evacuating ULL. Motion continues to be NW, which means hes still going to get further west. At this time he seems on track with NHC guidance. Bonnie is not moving ENE, the center has just been difficult to fix on radar, by my estimates she has had a NE track all morning, with a wobble as she tries to cross the coast. The front itself is slowing down and becoming more pole aligned with a N/S axis. I was still stay the landfall for charlie will be north of Sarasota.

[Josephine96]

Yes it will be interesting..

I think Tampa is still going to be getting a direct hit.. or St. Pete..

[mf_dolphin]

This is a dangerous assumption to be posting. Sarasota is just south of the bay area and well within the scope of Charley...

[Dmetal81]

I fail to see how anyone could interpret 2-3 satellite images (with the eye having JUST appeared to boot) and then extrapolate its movement based upon this. It just doesnt seem sound. When hes been moving NNW for a good 2-3 hours I will believe it. A temporary jog as the system attempts to reorganize a bit IMO.

[Josephine96]

True Dolphin..

We just have to wait and see where he goes..

[NorthGaWeather]

Charley is gonna come closer to Tampa then you think.