Ivan Advisories

[AussieMark]

when they have reconnaissance flights going in.

Dvroak intensity estimates are less of a issue.

[yoda]

when they have reconnaissance flights going in.

Dvroak intensity estimates are less of a issue.

ah ok. thanks.

[yoda]

Hurricane Ivan Forecast/Advisory Number 28


Statement as of 09:00Z on September 09, 2004



a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the guajira peninsula of Colombia...for the entire northern
coast of Venezuela...and for the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti
from the border of the Dominican Republic westward...including Port
au Prince.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for Jamaica
later this morning.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the southwestern
coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo westward to
pedernales. Tropical storm warnings may be required for a portion
of this area later today.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

Hurricane center located near 13.9n 70.0w at 09/0900z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 13 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 922 mb
eye diameter 10 nm
Max sustained winds 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt.
64 kt....... 50ne 25se 25sw 50nw.
50 kt.......100ne 75se 35sw 100nw.
34 kt.......140ne 125se 75sw 140nw.
12 ft seas..300ne 140se 140sw 200nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 13.9n 70.0w at 09/0900z
at 09/0600z center was located near 13.7n 69.5w

forecast valid 09/1800z 14.8n 72.0w
Max wind 140 kt...gusts 170 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 30se 30sw 60nw.
50 kt...100ne 80se 40sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 130se 75sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 10/0600z 16.2n 74.3w
Max wind 135 kt...gusts 165 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 40se 40sw 60nw.
50 kt...100ne 80se 50sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 130se 90sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 10/1800z 17.6n 76.4w
Max wind 135 kt...gusts 165 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 45se 45sw 60nw.
50 kt...100ne 80se 60sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 140se 100sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 11/0600z 19.1n 78.3w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
50 kt...100ne 90se 60sw 100nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 110sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 12/0600z 21.0n 80.2w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.
50 kt...100ne 100se 60sw 90nw.
34 kt...150ne 150se 120sw 130nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 13/0600z 24.0n 81.0w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.

Outlook valid 14/0600z 28.0n 81.0w...inland over Florida
Max wind 80 kt...gusts 100 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.9n 70.0w

next advisory at 09/1500z

forecaster Stewart

[yoda]

WAHH?

TRACK SHIFTS EAST? WHAT??

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Now over EC FL... may miss the ENTIRE EC OF FL... and go up East Coast..

again... WHA?

I can't wait to see the discussion on this...

[ericinmia]

WAHH?

TRACK SHIFTS EAST? WHAT??

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Now over EC FL... may miss the ENTIRE EC OF FL... and go up East Coast..

again... WHA?

I trust this MUCH more than others....

STEWART WROTE IT!
Hands down i would follow it!

YIKES.... need more sugar...
need more caffines....... aaaahh

haha, lets all keep a calm head.

WE KNOW this will SHIFT again...







as soon as Avila gets his sneeky hands at forecasting again... lol
-Eric

[yoda]

WAHH?

TRACK SHIFTS EAST? WHAT??

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Now over EC FL... may miss the ENTIRE EC OF FL... and go up East Coast..

again... WHA?

I trust this MUCH more than others....

STEWART WROTE IT!
Hands down i would follow it!

YIKES.... need more sugar...
need more caffines....... aaaahh

haha, lets all keep a calm head.

WE KNOW this will SHIFT again...







as soon as Avila gets his sneeky hands at forecasting again... lol
-Eric

Yeah.. I agree with everything you said Eric... but my big question is why the LARGE shift EAST?

[birdwomn]

Before we panic here in Florida, we must remember that Ivan will likely go over Jamica and Cuba mountains before getting to Florida. Both of these are likely to take a bit out of it's strength.

That said, I think the entire of Florida is Hurricane weary, particuarly those folks in areas like Lake Wales that got a double wallop from Charley and Frances. Any tropical disturbance is likely to cause major problems in our already fragile recovery.

I do have to admit, I keep thinking of that "joke forecast" posted before Frances that wiped out FL.

[mobilebay]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this very simular to the GFS? The GFS might be smarter than we think although it shifted about 200 miles on the last run.

[chris_fit]

uhh thats over melbourne

[yoda]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this very simular to the GFS? The GFS might be smarter than we think although it shifted about 200 miles on the last run.

I think you are right.. I think we are having NHC basing their forecast off the tropical instead of the global models... but as Eric said above this is Stewart posting.. and he/she usually writes great discussions for the reason why the track shifted...

[mobilebay]

Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't this very simular to the GFS? The GFS might be smarter than we think although it shifted about 200 miles on the last run.

I think you are right.. I think we are having NHC basing their forecast off the tropical instead of the global models... but as Eric said above this is Stewart posting.. and he/she usually writes great discussions for the reason why the track shifted...

True. They may have seen something in the synoptics we havn't.

[birdwomn]

I'm interested in seeing the discussion on this one...

[ericinmia]

The GFDL is running straight up the center of FL... with the Euro doing something similar. The FSU superenxemble which we can't see is off the west coast as is the ukmet... the GFS is off the east...

It is about the centerline... and as we get closer and closer to landfall.. its better to warn the many, and surprise the few than to warn the few, and surprise the many!

Stewart is also very known for using a great deal of synoptic reasoning in his discussions, and descion making. I can't wait for the discussion.

WE are lucky the storm attained Cat5 while he was on the desk. Avila might have pissed his pants, and claimed it was headind for the north pole... if that is what his "model" was telling him. lol sorry had to add that... i can't stand avila.

hope that helps a little.
look at my steering currents thread...
-Eric

[mobilebay]

If it is off the GFDL I sure don't understand, because it has been running way to for north and east.

[Thunder44]

Damm, these advisories should be 4:30am not 5am. They are coming out more than a half hour early!

[yoda]

Yeah, but what's got me worried is that the marine advisory and 5 day track came out at 4:18 AM... WAY BEFORE the usual time of 4:45 ish....

I am expecting a LONG, but very through and GREAT discussion...

[tronbunny]

Interesting..
days 4 and 5 appears to do a "frances-like" weakening,
not to mention the same kind of track.

[yoda]

**Matt goes to get coffee before the discussion comes out... and sees if anyone else wants some... **

[ericinmia]

probabilites went up to double digits for miami as i thought...
not looking to good...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0816.shtml?
-Eric

[DAVE440]

Euro run I mentioned earlier was the 12UTC (8am EDT) run showing Ivan skirting fl coast. The updated run 00 UTC (8pmEDT) now shows a 10 pin strike right down the center... http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004090900!!!step/

This will change as models will vary over the next few days....but scarey to see... and now from what Im reading here...922mb with lightning in the eyewall? I don't know exactly what implication that has but if I had to guess I would say cloud tops are not being blown off allowing Tstorms to build up to higher tops and giving electrons a chance to build up and discharge. But I'm no weatherman...just guessing here.

Interesting read on hurricane lightning I found...

Hurricane lightning is muted
A hurricane research campaign in 1998 showed that hurricanes typically don't produce much lightning, but sometimes they can.

"What we want to know is why," said Monte Bateman of the Universities Space Research Association. "Some longtime hurricane pilots have reported that when a hurricane does produce lightning, intensification often follows."

more from same site here....http://science.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd16jun99_1.htm[/url]