Ivan Advisories

[Derek Ortt]

one should never use a single estimate (especially when there are two others that are used) when real data is available

[BUD]

that would put SC and NC in for a Hurricane also I work for a grocery store so I have to be on my toes.

[yoda]

Here you can see the upper-level low on WV beginning to form.
It could weaken the mid-atlantic high, allowing Ivan to move more freely poleward.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

-Eric

BTW:
He wrote a great discusion explaining what he sees as possibilities, and his reasoning for the forecast track change.

To bad by the time i awake tomorrow Avila will most likely have screwed things up again.

hehe, yup, don't worry.

So before ya go Eric.. are you saying that a more NW movement is possible later today?

[yoda]

that would put SC and NC in for a Hurricane also I work for a grocery store so I have to be on my toes.

Not yet. However, keep watching it VERY closely. Are you the manager of the store? Just wondering...

[yoda]

one should never use a single estimate (especially when there are two others that are used) when real data is available

again.. thanks Derek.

[Jetman]

000
URNT12 KNHC 090844
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0844Z
B. 13 DEG 53 MIN N
69 DEG 58 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2391 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 232 DEG 134 KT
G. 138 DEG 5 NM
H. 921 MB
I. 11 C/ 3100 M
J. 20 C/ 3062 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C11
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF866 1009A IVAN OB 17
MAX FL WIND 154 KT N QUAD 0525Z.

;

[yoda]

Hmm.. how does that correspond with the extrap 916 MB in Stewart's discussion? I am wondering here...

[BUD]

that would put SC and NC in for a Hurricane also I work for a grocery store so I have to be on my toes.

Not yet. However, keep watching it VERY closely. Are you the manager of the store? Just wondering...

Training leadstocker which means ordering product.water,ect.I also give my opinion to the other mangers we all work as a team before a storm hits.

[yoda]

that would put SC and NC in for a Hurricane also I work for a grocery store so I have to be on my toes.

Not yet. However, keep watching it VERY closely. Are you the manager of the store? Just wondering...

Training leadstocker which means ordering product.water,ect.I also give my opinion to the other mangers we all work as a team before a storm hits.

Ah ok.. keep watching closely.. you should be able to get an idea by Friday or Saturday...that is IMO...

[ericinmia]

The upper level low, should dissolve in one form or another within 72 hours. The Nogaps even agrees with this. The effect it has on the high will take time, and then more time before Ivan will respond to the weakness.

Going out on a limb i would guess that this more NW movement should occur sometime after lunch to dinner... tomorrow. Sorry i'm getting hungry. Depending on how strong it builds, it could really hamper the high, allowing the trough to expand deeper, wider, and stronger. This would exert more force on Ivan possibly resulting in his turn to a 300-330 degree course.

This other scenario is very unlikely but not ruled out... Ivan could begin to turn early, and then pass through the bahamas instead of fla, and out to sea. If that were to occur, i don't see anywhere on the CONUS having to deal with Ivan.
-Eric

Sorry i am half asleep.. having trouble remember thoughts, and what i am typing... so things may not have been conveyed to well.

[yoda]

That's alright and I understood all you just posted. Go get some sleep...

[Janie34]

Senor....How much stronger could it really get?? Being that is has not found the warmest SST's...

Well, we do have Camille and the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as comparisons as well. I'm not saying Ivan will reach those levels of intensity, but it is possible. Camille had sustained winds of 190 mph at landfall.

Edited to add: We also have Gilbert and Mitch as comparisons. We may not yet have seen Ivan's full potential unfortunately.

[quickychick]

FYI
TPC Staff:
National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Specialists
<snip>

* Stacy Stewart -- Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM)

<snip>
And our pal Stewart could have a feminine first name.

and

When Stewart said these two things in her Discussion:

Stacy's a dude. http://www.fiu.edu/orgs/w4ehw/w4ehw-nhc-conf-2003.htm and scroll 1/3 down. Nothing feminine about that guy. [/fangirl]

The upper-level outflow pattern is impressive and well-established
...And if anything...will only get better for the next 72-96 hours.
Therefore...the future intensity will likely be modulated by inner-
core convective changes and land interaction since th water ahead of
Ivan is only forecast to get warmer...as warm as 30c south of Cuba
and over the Florida Straits.

AND

In addition...and eyewall
dropsonde recorded a wind speed of 175 kt at about 630 ft above sea
level. Based on this information...Ivan is easily upgraded to a
140-kt category 5 hurricane. As I write...a new recon report
indicates an extrapolated pressure of 916 mb.

It makes me want to do this:

Concur. No rest for the weary. A terrifiying prospect...finally got through the discussion. Boy, that 5 AM track sure surprised me, I thought for sure it would be a shift to the west like Ortt has been saying.

-qc

[tronbunny]

Thanks,
now I can picture the "Smart Guy" there.

[BReb]

Ivan is moving NW right now- check the IR loops. This monster won't ever hit the US and thank goodness for that.

[yoda]

Ivan is moving NW right now- check the IR loops. This monster won't ever hit the US and thank goodness for that.

HUH? Why is that, may I ask?

[BReb]

according to the IR loops this monster has dramatically shifted to the NW and looks more likely to miss the US than it did 6 hours ago, and thank heavens for that.

[quickychick]

Thanks,
now I can picture the "Smart Guy" there.

Sure thing, tronbunny--I got the link from some other wise S2K poster but I can't recall his/her name.

[abajan]

...From listening to the radio, 167 houses (and at least a couple of hotels) have sustained significant damage but, believe me, that toll is sure to rise. 600 houses were damaged in Tropical Storm Lili a couple of years ago and IMO this was much worse than that. In addition to property damage, many utility poles and trees were downed, thus many of the roads are blocked.

Thankfully, it appears that my initial fears that the toll of damage would rise significantly were unjustified. It seems that Lili damaged or destroyed most of the weaker structures because the final tally wasn't much higher than the 167 stated above.

Also, most of the roads have been cleared of debris and electricity has been restored to most (if not all) of the island.

All in all, Barbados feared very well. We now need to focus our attention on Grenada, where the news seems to get worse by the minute. One of the newspapers this morning speaks of people there walking about in a state of shock.

[yoda]

Are you just basing this of IR loops?