Frances Advisories

[BonesXL]

Gaston will not be a player in the future track of Frances. Frances is moving to slow, by the time Frances reaches the Bahamas. Any effects of gaston will be gone. Gaston will be a rain sprinkle in the shipping lanes. The question is how far west/north will the ridge be?

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040829 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040829 1200 040830 0000 040830 1200 040831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.5N 54.3W 19.0N 56.4W 19.4N 58.6W 19.7N 61.0W
BAMM 18.5N 54.3W 18.7N 56.4W 19.0N 58.9W 19.3N 61.4W
A98E 18.5N 54.3W 18.6N 55.9W 19.2N 57.9W 20.1N 60.2W
LBAR 18.5N 54.3W 18.9N 56.0W 19.4N 58.3W 19.8N 60.7W
SHIP 115KTS 112KTS 111KTS 111KTS
DSHP 115KTS 112KTS 111KTS 111KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040831 1200 040901 1200 040902 1200 040903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.2N 63.6W 21.5N 68.4W 23.1N 72.0W 24.2N 74.6W
BAMM 19.6N 64.1W 20.7N 69.2W 22.0N 72.8W 22.8N 75.1W
A98E 20.9N 63.0W 23.4N 68.4W 25.8N 72.7W 28.0N 75.7W
LBAR 20.2N 63.4W 21.0N 68.7W 22.6N 72.6W 23.8N 74.8W
SHIP 111KTS 106KTS 98KTS 88KTS
DSHP 111KTS 106KTS 98KTS 88KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.5N LONCUR = 54.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 53.0W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 51.6W
WNDCUR = 115KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 948MB

[AlabamaDave]

Out of curiosity, do hurricanes of this magnitude normally keep their intensity for the number of days between now and an anticipated landfall?? Within the past few years, we have had Floyd and Isabel on this similar track...both much feared...and both turned toward the Carolinas and weakened considerably before landfall.

I know that's only two examples and atmospheric conditions may be different for Frances. Just wondering whether there is a precedent for a hurricane to hold on to Cat-4/5 status for over a week?? I guess I could stop being lazy and go look up tracks for Allen, Gilbert, etc.

[caneman]

Luis this is too close for comfort for you.

[wx247]

oh boy... I have a feeling the surprises are not over yet.

[LCfromFL]

WOW

[msbee]

ok
so what does this eman?
what postion is PR at?
we are at 18.1 63.1
the models still have it north of us
but does that mean more tropical force winds for us?
and what about PR?

[Stormcenter]

oh boy... I have a feeling the surprises are not over yet.

Yes you are right wx247.

[Aquawind]

The 11am track update should be interesting...

[cycloneye]

Msbee this movement will be a more close passage of the eye more closer to the islands than thought before.So expect a watch issued later today.

[wx247]

ok
so what does this eman?
what postion is PR at?
we are at 18.1 63.1
the models still have it north of us
but does that mean more tropical force winds for us?
and what about PR?

Assuming Frances were to continue straight west... the eye would pass not too far north of your coordinates if I am not mistaken.

[Weatherboy1]

After reading the HPC discussion and looking at a couple of things, it seems like the models are picking up on an eastward moving front/trough that will help shunt the ridge eastward late in the forecast period (day 5 - 7). That would allow Frances to start curving a bit more NW late in the period. I assume that's why the NHC's track is showing what it's showing. This development could be good news for South FL IF IT PERSISTS, but bad news further up the coast. We'll have to see how today progresses.

[HURAKAN]

Although is early to say, what impacts will this not forecast westward motion have at the end? Like in 5 days?

[Brent]

[wx247]

Brent, I think that is a little old... am I mistaken?

[hial2]

Brent,based on present movement those tracks are way off

[msbee]

wx247
that's the answer I didn't really want to hear

[Brent]

Brent, I think that is a little old... am I mistaken?

No. Look at the top. The ones with 12z beside them are the brand new runs.

The only one that is old is the UKMET.

[Aquawind]

Wow..Impressive agreement.. I pray the UK is wrong..It want's my Roof..

[wx247]

Brent, I think that is a little old... am I mistaken?

No. Look at the top. The ones with 12z beside them are the brand new runs.

The only one that is old is the UKMET.

lol, ok...duh!

But the thing is that NONE of them have this thing currently moving west.