Earl Advisories

[Guest]

On top of Earl, we have the triplets from hell! 2 strong low pressures about to exit Africa with Danielle in front! these coul take a chraley path if they dont strenthen too quickly!

[Guest]

Looking at the accompanying graphic product on the projected path, it looks like Jamacia is in for some rough stuff again.

[dhweather]

Then the Yucatan channel, then ........... hmmmmm.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Right off the SW FL Coast...

I know it's just a long range prediction but it's still somewhat disturbing to see.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... oplant.gif

[Patrick99]

Everyone always says that Florida is going to pay the piper sooner or later, and it looks like it may be happening. People seem to forget that from 1900-1965, Florida was *routinely* hit by hurricanes, many of them major.

You know, I think that big dearth of Florida hurricanes from the 70s through the 80s, and most of the 90s, was somewhat anomalous, and not likely to happen again in our respective lifetimes. For a state sticking out in a super-warm ocean like a sore thumb, with all those miles of coastline and barrier islands, you better *expect* hurricanes.

[frankthetank]

Patrick hit it on the head. skinny land mass surrounded by 80-90 hurricane breeding degree water.

[Guest]

the NOGAPS at 72 out of landfall of hurricane charley were on board with GFs and UKMET with a talahassee landfall. better luck next time

[Hurricane Cheese]

Unfortunately we could have our next Hurricane in the Carribean by late night Sunday, or early Monday...


Lots of red convection showing up now with good banding and wrapping occuring. I hope they've taken precautions for a strong Tropical Storm in the Leeward Islands...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Thunder44]

It doesn't take to Florida this time. It takes through the Yucatan or just north of it, into the Central Gulf of Mexico.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... au=144sn't

[southerngale]

Oh boy...

Btw...link gave me "page cannot be displayed"

[OtherHD]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=144

[CajunMama]

ewwwww....i don't like that at all ohd!

[LaBreeze]

I don't like it either CajunMama, but at least we would be on the west side of it.

[ColdFront77]

It doesn't take to Florida this time. It takes through the Yucatan or just north of it, into the Central Gulf of Mexico.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... au=144sn't

A system in the central Gulf of Mexico can make landfall along any portion of the coast.

[LaBreeze]

Don't I know it ColdFront77. I've lived on the coast of the GOM all of my life and have experienced many tropical systems. It's just that according to CajunMama's post, we would be west of Earl. I've lived according to the saying, "Never turn your back to the sea." Hope you are well in Florida.

[washington]

Look at the lastest runs NOGAPS takes it towards west FL again while GFDL brings the hurricane across the YUCATAN.

[ColdFront77]

Hope you are well in Florida.

Thanks, LaBreeze.

I am about 45 miles northwest of Orlando so it wasn't that bad here at my location.

I got some gusty winds and some rain, but nothing that was expected if it tracked further north (over water longer) up Tampa Bay and then inland, like was forecast late Thursday night into Friday morning.

[Anonymous]

I think it may be much stronger. When it gets in the Gulf, the enviornment appears to be favorable for a 145 mph storm (SARCASUM)... No.... IT REALLY DOES. If Charley can, Earl can. Watch Earl. My forecast of the bad ones being Charley, Earl and Ivan may come true......

[PurdueWx80]

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 7
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 15, 2004

While the overall convective cloud pattern remains elongated
slightly east-west...the amount and quality of deep convection near
the center has increased significantly this morning. The Dvorak
satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and SAB is a consensus
t3.0...or 45 kt. The initial intensity is only increased to 40 kt
based on the lack of consistent banding features. Air Force recon
will be investigating Earl later this morning.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/22. Most of
the conventional and microwave satellite position estimates suggest
that Earl is moving more westward and is...therefore...south of the
previous positions and forecast track. As mentioned in previous
discussions...Earl is expected to move basically west-northwestward
under the influence of the strong subtropical ridge located to the
north of the Caribbean islands and into the Gulf of Mexico. The
initial track was adjusted a little south of the previous track
through 72 hours to account for the more southerly location. After
72 hours...the track forecast becomes a little more complicated.
The NHC model guidance is fairly evenly split between taking Earl
west-northwestward into the Yucatan or northwest and northward into
the east central Gulf or even near the Florida Panhandle. All of
the models agree on another trough digging southeastward from The
Rockies into the Southern Plains by day 5...causing the subtropical
ridge to retreat eastward to Florida and the eastern Gulf. This may
result in Earl slowing down significantly and turning more
northwestward. The official track is in the middle of the model
guidance envelope and is close to a blend of the GFS...
NOGAPS...and UKMET solutions...only much slower than the UKMET.

With little or no shear expected to affect Earl...some slow
intensification is forecast through 48 hours since the cyclone is
expected to continue moving at a fairly fast forward speed. After
Earl slows down in the later time periods...more significant
strengthening is possible as the cyclone will be moving over much
warmer water in the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea.


Forecaster Stewart

Forecast positions and Max winds


initial 15/0900z 11.7n 59.1w 40 kt
12hr VT 15/1800z 12.7n 62.3w 45 kt
24hr VT 16/0600z 13.9n 66.5w 50 kt
36hr VT 16/1800z 15.0n 70.6w 55 kt
48hr VT 17/0600z 16.1n 74.4w 60 kt
72hr VT 18/0600z 18.3n 80.3w 70 kt
96hr VT 19/0600z 20.5n 84.5w 80 kt
120hr VT 20/0600z 24.0n 87.0w 90 kt

[ChaserUK]

Looking at the latest IR image I would suspect Earl will strengthen quicker than initially forecast. Anyone else think this could be a possibility?