Ivan Advisories

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chris_fit
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#1801 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:39 am

LOL
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#1802 Postby tronbunny » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:39 am

Don't take the bait!
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Matthew5

#1803 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:39 am

The models said it would any way! A west-northwest or 290 to 295 it is moving right now. The nhc expect this.
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#1804 Postby ericinmia » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:39 am

even on the current 300 or so degree wnw-nw course... it would still take Ivan into Jamaica or just east there of.
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#1805 Postby Dave C » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:40 am

Notice Stewart said warmer water upstream(85-87) We can only hope this goes into a down-cycle when it nears Jamaca and the Caymens. As Steve Lyons mentioned earlier, they need nearly perfect environment to maintain cat 4-5 status, let's hope for shear,dry air, something!!!!!!
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Death Toll now 20 in Grenada

#1806 Postby Cyclone Runner » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:42 am

Hurricane Ivan Kills 20 in Grenada, Heads West
Thu 9 September, 2004 03:19


By Frances Kerry

MIAMI (Reuters) - Hurricane Ivan killed at least 20 people as it laid waste to the tiny spice island of Grenada, where looting hampered relief efforts on Wednesday as the storm swept through the Caribbean heading northwest.

Ivan, a dangerous Category 4 storm on a five-step scale of hurricane intensity, slammed into Grenada, a volcanic island of 90,000 people in the southeastern Caribbean on Tuesday, flattening or badly damaging homes and cutting power.

"Our diplomats are reporting that there are 20 confirmed deaths," said a State Department official in Washington.

The airport in the former British colony was closed and phone service was interrupted, so the extent of the damage began to emerge only on Wednesday.

A videotape shot from a British naval helicopter showed widespread destruction with buildings flattened, roofs ripped off houses and major flooding.

Grenada's capital, St. George's, was devastated. The storm destroyed the island's emergency operations center, the prime minister's residence, the prison, many schools, and damaged the main hospital.

"I can estimate about 85 percent devastation," Kenrick Fullerton, a member of parliament in Grenada, told a radio station in Trinidad.

Crews cleared the airport runway so emergency flights could land, but looting broke out and the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency urged aid groups to send only essential personnel until police could guarantee their safe passage.

Police, troops and ham radio operators were en route from neighboring islands to help relieve what CDERA called a serious security situation. "There is some looting in the capital city, so I think that is causing some concern," said a CDERA manager Donovan Gentles.

The latest in a busy Atlantic hurricane season, Ivan prompted storm alerts for the Dutch islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao, the north coast of Venezuela, Colombia's Guajira peninsula, Jamaica and parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Its winds hit 145 mph (232 kph) and it was expected to strengthen.

Britain's Royal Navy sent in medical teams from the HMS Richmond and an auxiliary vessel to help relief efforts, said a Navy spokesman, Cmdr. Richard Buckland, in London.

Grenada's prime minister, Keith Mitchell, whose residence was blown away, was moved to the Richmond.

HOMES, LIVELIHOODS FLATTENED

Grenada is a major nutmeg producer with an area of just 132 square miles. A local television journalist told a Trinidad radio station that one area of nutmeg production was completely destroyed.

"Here in (St. Andrew), the nutmeg industry in Grenada is gone. This is one of the nutmeg belts in the country and people are wondering about their livelihood," said Ejenny Mason. "Most of the houses have either been flattened or have lost their roofs."

Trinidad prepared to send two ships with relief supplies and troops to help rebuild on the island, which became known when the United States invaded it in 1983.

Ivan also swiped at islands near Grenada in the southeastern Caribbean on Tuesday, killing two people. On the resort isle of Tobago, sister island to Trinidad, the storm killed a woman when a tree fell on her house, ripped off dozens of roofs and knocked out power.

In Barbados, a 75-year-old woman was killed as she searched for her cats during the storm, and 220 houses were damaged.

At 8 p.m. EDT, Ivan was about 95 miles north-northeast of the island of Curacao, at latitude 13.4 north and longitude 68.4 west, the National Hurricane Center said. It was racing west-northwest at 17 mph on a course that would take it over Jamaica on Friday.

The hurricane center's longer-term forecast, with a wide margin for change, had the storm passing over Cuba on Sunday and off Florida's southwest coast on Monday.

It was too soon to predict if the storm would become the third hurricane to hit Florida in a month. Hurricane Charley slammed into southwest of Florida on Aug. 13, followed by Hurricane Frances, which hit the east coast over the weekend. (Additional reporting by Linda Hutchinson-Jafar in Port of Spain, Trinidad; Pascal Fletcher in Caracas, Saul Hudson in Washington and Jane Sutton in Miami)
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#1807 Postby BReb » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:42 am

Yeah, I just woke up and saw what was due west at bedtime become NW in 5 hours. So I'm assuming this validates the eastsiders. But then I saw the discussion and they say the US is still a possibility.

But let's put it this way: the chances of it missing the US are far less now than if I were still seeing westward motion.
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#1808 Postby BReb » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:43 am

Err- I meant to say chances of it missing the US are GREATER in light of the NW movement.
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#1809 Postby BReb » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:44 am

"A west-northwest or 290 to 295 it is moving right now."

Not by my eyes they aren't- clearly NW.
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#1810 Postby tronbunny » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:44 am

Glad to hear Abajan,

Yes, it is tragic about Granada.
Let's turn our thoughts for better fare for Jamaica.
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#1811 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:45 am

BReb wrote:"A west-northwest or 290 to 295 it is moving right now."

Not by my eyes they aren't- clearly NW.


We will see... we will see...
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#1812 Postby ObsessedMiami » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:45 am

debbiet wrote:I can certainly understand the anxiety and near panic...if I were in FL I would be doing the same thing...but maybe it will help to remember that we ALL thought that Frances was going to hit as a Cat 4 too...nothing predicted her rather dramatic weakening (that I was aware of) just a day or so before landfall...so let's all just hope and pray that a similar scenario occurs with Ivan. In fact...same thing happened with Isabel last year...from a Cat 5 to Cat 4 then a Cat 2 at landfall...so maybe it won't be the monster we THINK it will be if and when it does make landfall.


Good Point.... 8-)
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#1813 Postby ericinmia » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:46 am

It sure would be nice if Ivan could just dissapear... :oops:
-Eric
Last edited by ericinmia on Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1814 Postby KBBOCA » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:46 am

BReb... wishing your first post could be correct and that this would miss the US (and Jamaica, etc...) there's NO good place for a monster like this storm to hit. Only "less bad" places... feeling sick as I watch this.
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#1815 Postby Aquawind » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:48 am

Geesh..whata baloney post..your heading is it will miss florida and you don't even know what direction it is moving..and all of this by sattelite..5 days out..
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#1816 Postby Dave C » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:48 am

The long. of Cape Hateras NC is 75deg. currently it's at 69.5 and moving WNW or maybe NW short term, even if it turned north before Florida the Bahamas(yikes) and the Carolinas would still be threatened unless a sharp NE turn followed.IMHO
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#1817 Postby southerngale » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:49 am

Dang that's sad. :(
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#1818 Postby BReb » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:50 am

"The sad thing is, this post may alter someones ideas who in turn may go to work tomorrow believing this scenario and pushing it on others. "

Even worse, the NHC may see the post, change their official forecast and then we're all doomed. My post will destroy south Florida. Lighten up.

But to remedy my threat to south Florida I will restate:

IT IS MERELY MY OPINION THAT THE THREAT TO THE US HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE NW MOVEMENT, I AM A RANK AMATEUR AT THIS AND NO ONE SHOULD LISTEN TO ME. AND IT IS STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION AND ONLY AN IDIOT WOULD NOT EVACUATE FROM EVEN A POTENTIAL CAT 5 LANDFALL.

There, happy now?
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#1819 Postby KBBOCA » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:50 am

Debbie, Yes, thanks for the reminder about Frances. That was a wonderful answer to prayer and a faith-builder. I'm asking God for faith to believe and pray that Ivan will do the same thing. I'm confident of His goodness and His power over this storm. But I find it hard not to doubt when my family and friends are directly in harm's way. Oh me of little faith...
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#1820 Postby yoda » Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:51 am

Lets calm down everyone...
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