Frances Advisories

[Brent]

Wow..Impressive agreement.. I pray the UK is wrong..It want's my Roof..

Yeah... if you could see beyond those other models aiming at South Florida they probably want your roof too.

[Brent]

Brent, I think that is a little old... am I mistaken?

No. Look at the top. The ones with 12z beside them are the brand new runs.

The only one that is old is the UKMET.

lol, ok...duh!

But the thing is that NONE of them have this thing currently moving west.

Exactly.

[cycloneye]

This 275 movement will be very important not only for the islands but for places ahead like northern Hispanola,Northern Cuba,The southern Bahamas and yes South Florida,The keys and the GOM?

[BonesXL]

Once the recon flight info. starts coming in we may start to see the models track a little more to the left.

[Derecho]

Brent,based on present movement those tracks are way off

Incorrect.

The GFDL had a turn to basically West about now...and it ends as one of the more northerly models.

This isn't a mass panic "all the models have to be thrown out" moment. It may not even last as due W movement. and it isn't currently a massive deviation from the NHC track or the track of most of the models.

[JPmia]

I remember some of the models did project a more west motion at this point and closer to PR. Or, could this be a jog, temporary west motion? What do we have to verify the consistency of this motion?

[wx247]

Maybe Frances is jealous of the attention Gaston is getting so she is wobbling to get some headlines.

[AlabamaDave]

Larry Cosgrove of WXAmerica is predicting Savannah, Georgia as Ground Zero.

[wx247]

Larry Cosgrove of WXAmerica is predicting Savannah, Georgia as Ground Zero.

What is WxAmerica?

[caneman]

Larry Cosgrove of WXAmerica is predicting Savannah, Georgia as Ground Zero.

Larry Who?

[Guest]

I guess its weatheramerica... but just looking at the models, the worst case scenario model at this point is the cmc... has it making the turn nnw as it hits florida and grazing the whole coastline... the eyewall passes over most of the east coast of florida. Then it turns it into sc/ga.

[Derecho]

Also, if Frances IS following the NHC track perfectly (Which would be movement just N of due W) the trochoidal wobbles of Frances now would mean the left wobbles would cause movement SOUTH of due W for a few hours (which we may have just seen.)

[sunflowerkist]

I guess its weatheramerica... but just looking at the models, the worst case scenario model at this point is the cmc... has it making the turn nnw as it hits florida and grazing the whole coastline... the eyewall passes over most of the east coast of florida. Then it turns it into sc/ga.

Hi I am new to this site and this is my first post. However, I am very actively interested in the outcome of this particular storm since I live in Central Florida. Most everything is speculative up until its too late to prepare. I have been seeing a swirl in a series of pictures that has become less and less pronounced as time has gone by. I was hoping that this was something that eventually would turn Frances away from the East Coast and have her just muddy up the water going north. Since this is not happening I am going to go out this morning to replenish the batteries and water that we used in the last go around. I can always use the batteries later and the water is good to go anytime. Can anyone predict how the eye wall of the hurricane going up the east coast would effect the Tampa Bay area? Tropical Storm winds etc, this is important in terms of people planning for being without electricity.

[Dean4Storms]

It is not out of the question that Frances could track a little farther south of due west and threaten the very northern isalnds. Folks must keep an eye on her.

[AlabamaDave]

YEs, it's Weather America. Here is his discussion on Frances, which was e-mailed out early this AM:

If you watch satellite images of the Greater Antilles closely, you will see persistent south and west flow present at upper levels. These winds should act to shear the advancing Hurricane Frances, stopping the gradual intensification seen with the compact, powerful storm for the past four days. However, this disorganization will be temporary, and only lessening the core velocities to perhaps 100-110 mph as the eye passes north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tomorrow.

Then, with SSTs around 30 C near and just north of the Turks and Caicos Chain, Frances will begin to regroup. Strong high pressure advancing into the Northeast and eventually the northern Atlantic Ocean (1032MB) will steer Frances west-northwest along the rim of the Commonwealth of the Bahamas by Thursday. Keeping in mind that the anticyclone is forecast to be pushed eastward by the a) weakness covering the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and b) the potent, full-latitude trough complex moving from the West Coast into the Corn Belt and Mid-South around late week, light steering winds will pull Frances north-northwest into the Savannah Valley of GA/SC by Saturday morning. That is a "distance" call, subject to change of course. I should note that since the hurricane will be moved more by the atmospheric weakness and NOT the trough when it makes landfall, a solid argument for mature, intense gyre with 130 mph or higher winds can be made. It is my feeling that Frances may only brush the FL East Coast but deliver its full impact over the cities of Savannah GA....Greenville SC....Spartanburg SC, much like Hugo (1989) did to Charleston SC, Myrtle Beach SC, and Charlotte NC. The 0z Aug 29 GGEM and 12z Aug 28 ECMWF versions support this sequence of events, although I would urge caution for two reasons: both of those baroclinic equations seriously underestimate the core pressures of the hurricane and one (the Canadian scheme) has a very obvious progressive (too fast) bias. Saturday morning at 7 AM ET just south of Savannah GA is my call for the arrival of a storm that, if numerical predictions are correct, will be the equal of this season's Charley and perhaps that of Hugo in 1989.

[golter]

shes been stair stepping like this for 3 days now, yesterday she did the same thing. Lets not freak about a 2 hour movement. Look at 4 - 6 hour movements and make judgements.

[snowflake]

The Baton Rouge weatherman said this morning that they expect the High Pressure to the north to weaken. He also said that Gaston would not move to quickly. This could turn it more to the north. The Hurricane Alley website has a long range model track and everytime I check it out it gets pushed futher to the east.

[Derek Ortt]

major shift in track

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

will have the graphic available shortly and will let you know when its available

also, the whole u.s. east coast is vulnerable

[Air Force Met]

Think that is a good forecast. Given how good the GFS has done over the last few days...and that it was spot on with the turn DUE west 48 hours ago...I think the NHC track will also have to be shifted south.

[B-Bear]

So, major shift in track yet we don't know any more than before where this might impact the U.S.

Forecasting hurricanes is so much fun.