Bonnie Advisories

[Dean4Storms]

Hey Dean, I am in Destin with ya. With all the rain we have had in the past two days the ground is super saturated. Hope the winds dont get too strong or some locals could loose a few trees due to the wet conditions.

I'm hoping she gets pulled further east toward Appalachicola, which could be the case. Holding my fingers crossed.

[Stormchaser16]

Agreed... too weak

And theres a little more convection now then just some around the center

[jlauderdal]

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA...AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42001
...INDICATE TROPICAL STORM BONNIE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED
AND HAS STRENGTHENED. BUOY 42001 LOCATED ABOUT 45 NMI NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 41 KT WITH A GUST
TO 52 KT. GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING A 10 MB PRESSURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BONNIE AND BUOY 42001 INDICATE NEAR 50-KT WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY
INCREASED TO 45 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/05. IT APPEARS THAT BONNIE HAS
PASSED NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM
SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BONNIE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TURN
MORE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...IF IT HASN'T DONE SO ALREADY. THE
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LANDFALL
OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE MAIN
CONCERN IS THAT WITH THE MID-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME
SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY 24 HOURS...BONNIE COULD MAKE A
SHARP TURN MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR EAST JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL OCCURS. THIS WOULD BE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK AND THIS SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY EVALUATED FOR THE NEXT
ADVISORY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND
INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL STROM WATCH AREA.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH THE BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION...TOPS AS COLD AS -83C...THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
CENTER THIS MORNING. IF RECON FINDS AN EYE OR EYEWALL FORMING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BONNIE COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR TIME PERIODS...BEFORE
WEAKENING OCCURS DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.
FACTORS SUPPORTING POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE INTENSITY
ARE -- BETTER INNER-CORE WIND FIELD ORGANIZATION CURRENTLY
ONGOING...DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTER...LOW SHEAR
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND BONNIE PASSING OVER A
WARMER GULF EDDY IN 12-18 HOURS DURING THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 25.9N 90.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 29.6N 86.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 32.3N 83.4W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 13/1200Z 36.0N 79.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/1200Z 45.5N 70.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

Stacy Stewart writes the finest discussions of anyone. Tells you what has and what could happen and why and what NHC is planning.

[Dmetal81]

One thing to keep in mind with both of these is the eastern side as it accelerates is going to be much stronger. With them becoming entrained into the troughs, they may hold a great deal of their wind speed on the eastern side. Look at the forecast maps and the distance bonnie is going to move over 72hours. By the end of the forecast period bonnie will be trucking along! Although this will help to speed them into the extratropical genre, remember what happens to fish storms as they accelerate northeast like that.

[Crankin]

NHC mentioned the possibility of Bonnie being pulled more to ene or e due to upper flow in the latest discussion, so this is a potential change.

[Derek Ortt]

the forecaster wants to see mroe organization before being more aggressive. One burst does not equal organization

[tallywx]

For my sake, I hope she does NOT get pulled east toward Apalachicola. Especially with models on Charley trending back westward, two hurricanes in two days is too much. At that rate, my house is going to begin feeling like a recon. flight.

[Guest]

Like I said TPC is way under done with Bonnie


Buoy reporting 57mph 10-min winds and gust to 76mph!! Over hurricane gusts!!

11/15 42001 25.8 -89.7 24.3 23.9 190 49 G 58 190 66 1009.7 -1.0 29.7 3.5 8 * 42001

[Air Force Met]

Beat me to it. I was looking for a good place to paste it rather than start a new thread

42001 25.8 -89.7 24.3 23.9 190 49 G 58 190 66 1009.7

hehehe

[rtd2]

I agree....

[CalmBeforeStorm]

So I guess that means Nader wins the presidency.

[Brent]

So I guess that means Nader wins the presidency.

about Bonnie

[cebers01]

Let's see how winds pick up this afternoon while the sun helps deepen her convection...

[Thunder44]

According to this vortex message it's not anywhere near hurricane strength

URNT12 KNHC 111508
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1508Z
B. 25 DEG 53 MIN N
89 DEG 55 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1456 M
D. 30 KT
E. 282 DEG 009 NM
F. 346 DEG 51 KT
G. 240 DEG 003 NM
H. 1004 MB
I. 22 C/ 1517 M
J. 24 C/ 1524 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF984 0802A BONNIE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 51 KT W QUAD 1504Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 850MB.

[Stormsfury]

ACTUALLY..... it only shows a 94 knot storm at the 950 level.... NOT surface winds....

DOnt know the ACTUAL calculation to get to surface, but thats actually not that signifigant

ON the GFDL runs at PSU ... I believe those are 100M winds ... and use an average reduction of 20% ... still talking roughly between 85-95 mph ...

[frankthetank]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=42001

[soonertwister]

Thunder, that's from almost 4800 msl, way above the surface. Let's see what they find when they go down low.

[HURAKAN]

Station 42001
9:50 am S ( 187 deg ) 49.0 kts
9:40 am S ( 190 deg ) 50.7 kts
9:30 am S ( 184 deg ) 44.5 kts
9:20 am S ( 184 deg ) 43.5 kts
9:10 am S ( 182 deg ) 39.0 kts
9:00 am S ( 189 deg ) 37.7 kts

[Josephine96]

what's all this about Nader being president? lmao

[MGC]

A cat 1 bonnie at landfall looks like a real possibility this morning. Bonnie was given up for dead yesterday and is still being ignored on this board. Landfall a day away and all I read about is Charlie....MGC