Frances Advisories

[jlauderdal]

So, major shift in track yet we don't know any more than before where this might impact the U.S.

Forecasting hurricanes is so much fun.

we know alot more bear. we know the quick turn west and even some south movement leaves florida much more vulnerable even if a weakness develops in the ridge.

[Brent]

Good forecast. I'm worried about the islands as well.

[Frank P]

I also think that was an excellent forecast DO and the GFS has performed quite well to date... Frances for the past hour has tracked almost due west, but BBear I don't see a major shift to the south just yet... any shift by the NHC will be sutle at best...

[Dean4Storms]

AVN 06..........

Turns Frances very close to islands........

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avn ... =Animation

[B-Bear]

So, major shift in track yet we don't know any more than before where this might impact the U.S.

Forecasting hurricanes is so much fun.

we know alot more bear. we know the quick turn west and even some south movement leaves florida much more vulnerable even if a weakness develops in the ridge.

True, true. But then there are new questions: How would a hit on the islands affect her track and intensity? How long does she stay due west? Is she going to come in to the west of Florida and become a Gulf threat rather than a southeast U.S. threat?

My only point was the commical nature of hurricane forecasting--that even with such a significant change in track, everybody from west Texas to Maine is still a possible target. That's all. Nothing against Derek's forecasting. He's one of my favorites.

[Derek Ortt]

graphics are now available at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004graphics.html

[B-Bear]

Derek, you seem like you're starting to get a little nervous. I can see your fingers starting to tremble a little as you type.

Hang in there. We all appreciate the fine work you're doing.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm actually starting to lean towards this clearing Miami... but that is mere speculation and should <b><u>NOT</b></u> be taken as a forecast at all

[B-Bear]

I'm actually starting to lean towards this clearing Miami... but that is mere speculation and should <b><u>NOT</b></u> be taken as a forecast at all

Clearing it to the east or west?

[Derek Ortt]

very slightly to the east, but even if I had to do a 7 day, it would still be touch and go. I do feel better than I did yesterday, though

[Patrick99]

All I can say is "typical." We'll keep seeing these little N and E adjustments to the track, and pretty soon, it will be headed for SC/NC. Just like Floyd, Isabel, Fran, et. al.

[B-Bear]

Here's my concern. She's going west. She wasn't supposed to be doing that this early, but she is. Why? What is it that is causing her to do that when she should be going more north to northwest? I just can't see what's causing it, other than that is what she wants to do. And now there is a ridge building across the U.S. and it is hard for me to believe that this ridge is going to cause her to want to go more northerly all the sudden.

I'm not disagreeing with you Derek. You're the pro and I have the utmost respect for your forecasts. I just don't see what laws of physics are going to suddenly cause Frances to do something she obviously doesn't want to do.

[Jevo]

Larry Cosgrove of WXAmerica is predicting Savannah, Georgia as Ground Zero.

Gotta wonder where Larry Cosgrove lives.... Face it; the NHC is splitting the 5 models pointing at So Fla with the 2 outliers right now to be safe....

We should know tonight once the Gulfstreams get out there and sample the upper levels

[Derek Ortt]

the UL's are simply moving out of the way. This doesn't show up as well oin the NHC sats, helps having GARP where I can assign the domain I want and see these features

[B-Bear]

the UL's are simply moving out of the way. This doesn't show up as well oin the NHC sats, helps having GARP where I can assign the domain I want and see these features

So do you think this is all going to come down to a timing issue and the strength of the building ridge?

[frederic79]

Two things I noticed this AM are:
1- Frances is NOT going to make 19N by 55W as projected. In fact, its been DUE WEST for several hours now. Either 10am tracks will have to be adjusted or Frances is going to have to pull a rabbit out the hat to get back on track.
2- Frances' larger ragged eye is now contracting again to a smaller, more symetrical eye. Could this be the beginning of an eye wall replacement cycle and intensification?

[B-Bear]

Two things I noticed this AM are:
1- Frances is NOT going to make 19N by 55W as projected. In fact, its been DUE WEST for several hours now. Either 10am tracks will have to be adjusted or Frances is going to have to pull a rabbit out the hat to get back on track.
2- Frances' larger ragged eye is now contracting again to a smaller, more symetrical eye. Could this be the beginning of an eye wall replacement cycle and intensification?

Agreed. This westward track is a bit disconcerting. I kind of thought we would see an eyewall replacement cycle today, so I wouldn't be surprised. She's getting into warmer waters and hasn't increased much in speed lately, so maybe she's figured out she needs to shed her eye in order to eat more warm water and get bigger.

[Guest]

Frances was mentioned for the first time in the forecast here- please read.

While many locations topped 90 degrees yesterday - Dulles hit 91 - Washington"s official recording station at Reagan National Airport again came up short. The high temperature there was officially 87. There will be another opportunity today to reach 90 as hot and humid conditions will continue. There is a slight chance of a late day thunderstorm, but the greater likelihood of showers will come tomorrow afternoon and evening. The approach of a frontal boundary is expected to set off showers tomorrow afternoon. Tropical Storm Gaston, now coming ashore in South Carolina, is expected to bring heavy rain to areas as close as the Virginia Tidewater. The Eastern shore and lower southern Maryland could also see significant rain from the storm. Our weather is expected to cool off by midweek with temperatures in the low 80s under mostly sunny skies. Hurricane Frances, a powerful Category 4 storm now in the eastern Atlantic, could threaten the southeastern US by Labor Day weekend

Meteorologist Dave Zahren

[Derecho]

Two things I noticed this AM are:
1- Frances is NOT going to make 19N by 55W as projected. In fact, its been DUE WEST for several hours now. Either 10am tracks will have to be adjusted or Frances is going to have to pull a rabbit out the hat to get back on track.
2- Frances' larger ragged eye is now contracting again to a smaller, more symetrical eye. Could this be the beginning of an eye wall replacement cycle and intensification?

1) Ooops.....last hour Frances clearly wobbled NW. So much for the due west movement for all eternity.

2) Over the last hour the eye has gotten less symettrical, and convective cloud tops have warmed and gotten a little ragged.

[Frank P]

last 30 pix from GOES IR Loop showed a little wobble to the north, not much mind you, but not the due west motion it had maintained during the prior hour or so of loops.... still at best its moving just north of due west, obviously we need some more loops to verify motion..