Ivan Advisories

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 9, 2004 5:15 a.m.


As of 5 a.m. EDT, the remnants of Frances were located 100 miles south of Buffalo, NY. Frances is moving to the north at about 25 mph. An upper-level system will cause Frances to pick up forward speed to the north-northeast today. Heavy rainfall and bands of severe weather will continue to be the main problems with this system, from Virginia northward into Pennsylvania and New York State Wednesday night and into southern New England today.

.
Hurricane Ivan is a dangerous and rare Category 5 hurricane. As of 5 a.m. EDT, Ivan was centered at 13.7 north, 69.5 west, or about 535 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. Ivan is moving west-northwestward at 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 160 mph. The central pressure in Ivan is 921 millibars or 27.21 inches. We expect Ivan to continue on a west-northwest course for the next 2 days. Ivan is passing just north of the Dutch Netherland Antilles and will be over or close to Jamaica on Friday. Ivan will probably continue to undergo fluctuations in its strength as it undergoes changes in the eyewall structure but will remain a major hurricane for the next few days. The track that Ivan takes past the end of the week is very uncertain. Model output is showing a gradual turn to the northwest and then to the north toward Florida Sunday and Monday. However, this far out we cannot be sure of the track. All interests in the northern and northwest Caribbean, as well as all interests in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. should keep a close eye on Ivan.

A new depression has formed southwest of the Azores in the eastern Atlantic and was located near 35.8 north and 34.1 west. The depression was moving northeast near 10 mph and this motion is expected to continue and on this path it could track across the Azores tomorrow. Maximum sustained winds are 35 mph. Little change in strength is expected but if it does strengthen into a tropical storm it would be named Jeanne.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, we have a tropical wave along 32 west, and about 15 north, east of the Cape Verde Islands, moving west. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, along 47 west, south of 17 north, moving west. There is a tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula, moving westward. These three features appear to be too disorganized to be considered for any possible development for the next couple of days.

[yoda]

Wha? NM then....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _114.shtml

[Anonymous]

Kind of interesting, but if you draw a line of his current movement, he will pass ever so slightly south of Jamaica. he is still farther west than those crazy models put him yesterday.

[ncbird]

Been watching that track get moved eastward also. So much rain here the past month that the thought of even a TS right now makes me worry about the flooding it would cause.

Anyone see any chance of this moving east far enough that it could just come up the coast and make it up to the Carolina's?

NCBird

[yoda]

Been watching that track get moved eastward also. So much rain here the past month that the thought of even a TS right now makes me worry about the flooding it would cause.

Anyone see any chance of this moving east far enough that it could just come up the coast and make it up to the Carolina's?

NCBird

Hmm.. we will have to see how hard that turn is... but IMO.. a slight chance the way you state it.

[Nimbus]

Ivan is now a Cat 5 hurricane and looks as though he is starting to build his own environment. The ridge building over Ivan can be clearly seen in water vapor imagery pushing WNW over Jamaica. The "channel" Ivan is creating is along the NHC forecast track and does not indicate an early recurve east of Jamaica.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Been watching that track get moved eastward also. So much rain here the past month that the thought of even a TS right now makes me worry about the flooding it would cause.

Anyone see any chance of this moving east far enough that it could just come up the coast and make it up to the Carolina's?

NCBird

Unfortunately....anything is possible right now!

[ColinD]

How long will Ivan remain a category 5?

[Lebowsky]

Where the heck to evacuate to? I'm going to make multiple hotel reservations in different counties.

[otowntiger]

Don't be surprised that he may have already begun to cycle down a bit. He could already be back to a cat 4 right now. People don't seem to understand that just a quickly or even quicker he can weaken.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

The upper level low, should dissolve in one form or another within 72 hours. The Nogaps even agrees with this. The effect it has on the high will take time, and then more time before Ivan will respond to the weakness.

Going out on a limb i would guess that this more NW movement should occur sometime after lunch to dinner... tomorrow. Sorry i'm getting hungry. Depending on how strong it builds, it could really hamper the high, allowing the trough to expand deeper, wider, and stronger. This would exert more force on Ivan possibly resulting in his turn to a 300-330 degree course.

This other scenario is very unlikely but not ruled out... Ivan could begin to turn early, and then pass through the bahamas instead of fla, and out to sea. If that were to occur, i don't see anywhere on the CONUS having to deal with Ivan.
-Eric

Sorry i am half asleep.. having trouble remember thoughts, and what i am typing... so things may not have been conveyed to well.

Local met says low is dissolving as we speak!

[yoda]

The upper level low, should dissolve in one form or another within 72 hours. The Nogaps even agrees with this. The effect it has on the high will take time, and then more time before Ivan will respond to the weakness.

Going out on a limb i would guess that this more NW movement should occur sometime after lunch to dinner... tomorrow. Sorry i'm getting hungry. Depending on how strong it builds, it could really hamper the high, allowing the trough to expand deeper, wider, and stronger. This would exert more force on Ivan possibly resulting in his turn to a 300-330 degree course.

This other scenario is very unlikely but not ruled out... Ivan could begin to turn early, and then pass through the bahamas instead of fla, and out to sea. If that were to occur, i don't see anywhere on the CONUS having to deal with Ivan.
-Eric

Sorry i am half asleep.. having trouble remember thoughts, and what i am typing... so things may not have been conveyed to well.

Local met says low is dissolving as we speak!

I am guessing that this is not good news, but for whom?

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

The upper level low, should dissolve in one form or another within 72 hours. The Nogaps even agrees with this. The effect it has on the high will take time, and then more time before Ivan will respond to the weakness.

Going out on a limb i would guess that this more NW movement should occur sometime after lunch to dinner... tomorrow. Sorry i'm getting hungry. Depending on how strong it builds, it could really hamper the high, allowing the trough to expand deeper, wider, and stronger. This would exert more force on Ivan possibly resulting in his turn to a 300-330 degree course.

This other scenario is very unlikely but not ruled out... Ivan could begin to turn early, and then pass through the bahamas instead of fla, and out to sea. If that were to occur, i don't see anywhere on the CONUS having to deal with Ivan.
-Eric

Sorry i am half asleep.. having trouble remember thoughts, and what i am typing... so things may not have been conveyed to well.

Local met says low is dissolving as we speak!

I am guessing that this is not good news, but for whom?

That ULL is what protected us from a direct hit from Frances....I didn't expect it to stick around FOREVER!

[yoda]

The upper level low, should dissolve in one form or another within 72 hours. The Nogaps even agrees with this. The effect it has on the high will take time, and then more time before Ivan will respond to the weakness.

Going out on a limb i would guess that this more NW movement should occur sometime after lunch to dinner... tomorrow. Sorry i'm getting hungry. Depending on how strong it builds, it could really hamper the high, allowing the trough to expand deeper, wider, and stronger. This would exert more force on Ivan possibly resulting in his turn to a 300-330 degree course.

This other scenario is very unlikely but not ruled out... Ivan could begin to turn early, and then pass through the bahamas instead of fla, and out to sea. If that were to occur, i don't see anywhere on the CONUS having to deal with Ivan.
-Eric

Sorry i am half asleep.. having trouble remember thoughts, and what i am typing... so things may not have been conveyed to well.

Local met says low is dissolving as we speak!

I am guessing that this is not good news, but for whom?

That ULL is what protected us from a direct hit from Frances....I didn't expect it to stick around FOREVER!

So, does that mean that the EC of FL should be on guard for Ivan to make landfall?

[Aquawind]

alright.. who was the meanie and said 2-3 days..lol..

[rjgator]

There is nothing to buy. I am in Florida in an area that only lost power for five hours in broward County and there is no Milk or meat on the shelves at any of my local grocery stores.

[quickychick]

How long will Ivan remain a category 5?

Too long.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

So, does that mean that the EC of FL should be on guard for Ivan to make landfall?

I don't want to panic anyone, but to be safe I would make sure your things are in order...I feel FL. might get some effect of this whether directly or not....oh and BTW I stayed at a holiday inn last night....
<just jokin>

Just be prepared!

[yoda]

So, does that mean that the EC of FL should be on guard for Ivan to make landfall?

I don't want to panic anyone, but to be safe I would make sure your things are in order...I feel FL. might get some effect of this whether directly or not....oh and BTW I stayed at a holiday inn last night....
<just jokin>

Just be prepared!

Ok and agreed!

[rjgator]

I live in Parkland and have not been able to find milk or meat in Publix oin Days. Does anyone know any of these stores that have any food???