Frances Advisories

[Derek Ortt]

yep

this is all timing, unless of course this stays south of this forecast and gets tangled up with hispaniola. Then we have a whole new scenario

[Derecho]

(Sarcasm off.)

Well, it really did....

Probably don't need a new frantic thread for each wobble proclaiming the models and forecast all shot to hell, etc.

Storms have a trochoidal wobble, which traces out a sine wave type path around their actual path.

Frances appears to be very gradually turning closer to due W, basically right along the NHC forecast path. However, the left portions of the wobbles are going to result in a couple hours of west or even south of west movement.

You can't tell an actual turn from a wobble without at least 6 hours of motion or so....

NHC did use 275 for its init motion in the 12Z models; they use a longer term motion for advisories, so don't expect 275 in the advisory.

[golter]

agreed, 6 hours is better window to look at direction. But. I too look at every loop. I still think she will move north of 20 - 60

[Frank P]

hehe, funny

ya gonna cause the people in GA, SC and NC to have a heart attack... I noticed the wobble to the north as well viewing the IR loops....

[Guest]

remember that this probably wont follow the track as close anymore, due to its ability to create its own environment, so it can move where it wants.

[Derek Ortt]

pressures need to become a lot lower for this to create its own environment and alter the steering flow, much like mitch and the ridge it formed due to its 905mb pressure (or Linda and its 900)

[canegrl04]

I expect alot more scratching of heads by the forecasters with each new projection because Frances is in her own enviornment now.Since they all are saying S.Florida or SC,I will say GOM

[simplykristi]

What if she hits Hispaniola? How does that change things?

Kristi

[Brent]

What if she hits Hispaniola? How does that change things?

Kristi

Hispanola would weaken the hurricane significantly. There are mountains over 10,000 feet tall there. Georges crossed the entire length of the island, made landfall as a 120 mph Cat 3 and was just barely a hurricane when it moved back over water.

[simplykristi]

Thanks for the explanation. Maybe that is what will happen. But what about the warm or almost hot waters of the GOM if Frances goes there?

Kristi

[Brent]

Thanks for the explanation. Maybe that is what will happen. But what about the warm or almost hot waters of the GOM if Frances goes there?

Kristi

The chances of that are slim to none. As long as it moves back over warm water and favorable conditions, it would restrengthen.

[B-Bear]

The chances of Frances actually hitting Hispaniola dead on are likewise rather remote, aren't they?

[Brent]

The chances of Frances actually hitting Hispaniola dead on are likewise rather remote, aren't they?

Yes. It would have to go south of the NHC track to go over the island.

[simplykristi]

Let's hope for the best and that some cold front forms out of nowhere and pushes Frances away from the US.

Kristi

[Deenac813]

So, major shift in track yet we don't know any more than before where this might impact the U.S.

Forecasting hurricanes is so much fun.

we know alot more bear. we know the quick turn west and even some south movement leaves florida much more vulnerable even if a weakness develops in the ridge.

Ok, now I can tell I am really a novice. I thought this shift meant it is better for south florida as it could go under us. Boy do I have alot to learn!

[Aquawind]

LOL..Agreed a NW wobble/jog/motion..lol in the last couple frames..

This watching the Wobbles stuff is agonizing and so much more to come..

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

Of course, I'm to the left now, but I'm also saying that the islands are in the clear--granted they will get some wind, rain, and heavy surf, but they'll be safely on the south side of the circulation...expect tropical storm conditions. By stroke of luck with the situation, the track forecast kind of mends itself in the later forecast periods, basically, I'm still coming to the same general spot later, despite the movement farther south...i.e. errors may easily be larger in the short term than in the long term---I do that a bit too much.

Now for Florida...do watch the storm, but you know I'm going to tell you to relax..as it's looking more and more like an FL hit is unlikely...it could obviously still happen, but areas farther up the coast should really keep an eye peeled.

At least I'm confident enough to have cancelled my vacation for next weekend.

[SouthernWx]

Frances will be a close call for the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the northern Leewards.....IMO T.S. force winds will be experienced in those areas.

My reasoning hasn't changed much....still projecting a strong cat-4 hurricane into the Bahamas by Thursday....and into SE Florida by Friday night/ Saturday as a large and extremely dangerous hurricane.

Please listen closely to official NHC forecasts and your EMA/ EOC officials.

Here's my latest forecast track:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts

[das8929]

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 19

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 29, 2004

...Frances moving slowly westward...reconnaissance plane expected to
to reach the hurricane later today...

a tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the northern
Leeward Islands later today.

Interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and the northeastern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Frances over
the next several days.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Frances was located near
latitude 18.6 north...longitude 54.7 west or about 550 miles...
885 km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Frances is moving toward the west near 9 mph...15 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. An Air Force plane will check the intensity of Frances this
afternoon. Some fluctuation in intensity are likely during the next
24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb...27.99 inches.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...18.6 N... 54.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 948 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM AST.