Frances Advisories

[tampastorm]

If you are correct, here in Tampa we will get 120 MPH winds? OUCH!!!!

[das8929]

Wow its moving west now! I dont think this was predicted by the NHC!

[Wnghs2007]

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 19

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 29, 2004


the hurricane is in steady state and has a rather impressive
representation on satellite images with a large eye. Because there
is less intense convection surrounding the eye...the T-numbers have
decreased a little bit...suggesting that the hurricane may not be
as strong as a few hours ago. However...the initial intensity is
kept at 115 knots until direct measurements from the reconnaissance
plane become available later today. At this point...Frances could
either intensify a little bit more or could experience some
fluctuations in intensity. Nevertherless..it is expected to remain
as an intense hurricane.

As the GFS global model has been forecasting...Frances is now moving
slowly westward. The best estimate of the initial motion is 280
degrees at 8 knots. It appears that the expansion of the developing
subtropical ridge north of the hurricane is already occurring. This
pattern would steer the hurricane between the west and
west-northwest over the next five days. This forecast is
consistent with the GFS...UK...Canadian and the ECMWF global models
which are in very good agreement in building a strong subtropical
ridge and moving the hurricane dangerously north of Puerto Rico and
across the Bahamas to just east of Florida. The GFDL model is
beginning to show a little more northwesterly motion by the end of
the forecast period. This track would be less threatening for South
Florida and the Keys.


Forecaster Avila


forecast positions and Max winds


initial 29/1500z 18.6n 54.7w 115 kt
12hr VT 30/0000z 18.8n 56.1w 120 kt
24hr VT 30/1200z 19.5n 58.5w 120 kt
36hr VT 31/0000z 20.0n 61.0w 120 kt
48hr VT 31/1200z 20.5n 63.5w 120 kt
72hr VT 01/1200z 21.8n 68.7w 120 kt
96hr VT 02/1200z 23.5n 72.6w 125 kt
120hr VT 03/1200z 25.5n 76.5w 125 kt




$$

[snowflake]

Has anyone been to the Hurricane Alley website?

[Derecho]

Wow its moving west now! I dont think this was predicted by the NHC!

The NHC advisory movement is 280 degrees. DUE west is 270 degrees.

In public advisories "West" is 260-280 degrees.

It's moving 10 degrees N of due W.

And over the last 1 1/2 hours (basically since the advisory was written) the movement is actually NW (due to wobble.)

People really need to get over the idea that somehow the NHC forecast is now horribly blown...they had it bending gradually closer to due W at this time.

[Derek Ortt]

gfs and an experimental model that I have been looking at does bring this very close to hispaniola.

Storms that cross the entire island do NOT recover

[dixiebreeze]

LOL..Agreed a NW wobble/jog/motion..lol in the last couple frames..

This watching the Wobbles stuff is agonizing and so much more to come..

Which is exactly why I seldom watch the loops. Plus it takes forever to download.

[golter]

You must have dialup, broadband downloads them in seconds. I love the loops, its adicting

[Brent]

So far the NHC track is right on.

[Brent]

[HollynLA]

That's a pretty bold statement telling FL to relax. I disagree

[paulvogel]

Francis moving at florida in 5 days at that angle, will look a lot like Charley. a last hour swerve in direction will mean a large change in landfall. Everyone from Miami to hatteras needs to be aware

[MWatkins]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/2004/frances.html

Of course, I'm to the left now, but I'm also saying that the islands are in the clear--granted they will get some wind, rain, and heavy surf, but they'll be safely on the south side of the circulation...expect tropical storm conditions. By stroke of luck with the situation, the track forecast kind of mends itself in the later forecast periods, basically, I'm still coming to the same general spot later, despite the movement farther south...i.e. errors may easily be larger in the short term than in the long term---I do that a bit too much.

Now for Florida...do watch the storm, but you know I'm going to tell you to relax..as it's looking more and more like an FL hit is unlikely...it could obviously still happen, but areas farther up the coast should really keep an eye peeled.

At least I'm confident enough to have cancelled my vacation for next weekend.

Please note that no one is saying this officially. There is still time to watch this system...but NO ONE is any safer or less safe now than before this post went up.

MW

[schmita]

Funny you saying that NC. We on island do not feel that we are in the clear quite yet.
irina

[paulvogel]

A small change in direction of movement will mean huge changes
in real world results. Just ask residents of tampa and punta gorda.

You need to be aware of Francis from the tip of Fla to Myrtle beach at the least

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I, for once, am not that concerned with it coming here.....

[rainstorm]

its moving awful slow

[HurricaneLover]

Well at least some models are trending further north. Even the NHC said it on their discussion

The GFDL model is
beginning to show a little more northwesterly motion by the end of
the forecast period. This track would be less threatening for South
Florida and the Keys.

[B-Bear]

Well at least some models are trending further north. Even the NHC said it on their discussion

The GFDL model is
beginning to show a little more northwesterly motion by the end of
the forecast period. This track would be less threatening for South
Florida and the Keys.

Yeah, they said the GFDL is tracking it further north. And that was irresponsible of them, IMO, because GFDL is the exception to most of the other models. By focusing in on that one model they seem to be giving it more credit than it deserves, as evidenced by some of the recents posts on the forum.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

THE HURRICANE IS IN STEADY STATE AND HAS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
REPRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A LARGE EYE. BECAUSE THERE
IS LESS INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE...THE T-NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED A LITTLE BIT...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY NOT BE
AS STRONG AS A FEW HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 115 KNOTS UNTIL DIRECT MEASUREMENTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE BECOME AVAILABLE LATER TODAY. AT THIS POINT...FRANCES COULD
EITHER INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE OR COULD EXPERIENCE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. NEVERTHERLESS..IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AS AN INTENSE HURRICANE.

AS THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING...FRANCES IS NOW MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280
DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPANSION OF THE DEVELOPING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS
PATTERN WOULD STEER THE HURRICANE BETWEEN THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UK...CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS
WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND MOVING THE HURRICANE DANGEROUSLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFDL MODEL IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/1500Z 18.6N 54.7W 115 KT
12HR VT 30/0000Z 18.8N 56.1W 120 KT
24HR VT 30/1200Z 19.5N 58.5W 120 KT
36HR VT 31/0000Z 20.0N 61.0W 120 KT
48HR VT 31/1200Z 20.5N 63.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 01/1200Z 21.8N 68.7W 120 KT
96HR VT 02/1200Z 23.5N 72.6W 125 KT
120HR VT 03/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 125 KT
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