Frances Advisories

[B-Bear]

Why do you keep starting new threads saying the same thing. We saw the other ones.

[Burn1]

Just basing on latest model runs

[Nimbus]

Is there any objective evidence that the zonal upper level flow will kink up and allow a trough to dig south to weaken the ridge? All I saw in the water vapor imagery was a zonal flow all the way to a low east of Japan?

[MBryant]

How about telling everyone from Florida to North Caroline to be prepared (Hurricane Kit prepared) and informed (don't go 24 hours without getting an update on Frances' position and strength) but not to panic (evacuate a week out from possible threat).

Would this cover the bases?

[MBryant]

How about telling everyone from Florida to North Caroline to be prepared (Hurricane Kit prepared) and informed (don't go 24 hours without getting an update on Frances' position and strength) but not to panic (evacuate a week out from possible threat).

Would this cover the bases?

[Lindaloo]

And the models could change again.

[Rainband]

I hope this stays away from land I know florida doesn't want or need it

[wx247]

Just basing on latest model runs

You sounded awful confident to be basing it on one set of model data.

[B-Bear]

Just basing on latest model runs

You sounded awful confident to be basing it on one set of model data.

That how you can most easily tell who the professional mets are around here. They are usually the ones saying that they don't know what the hell is going to happen with any degree of certainty.

[Guest]

& I thought that John Kerry was a flip-flopper,these models & this wx pattern take the cake.

[rbaker]

this is exactly why I don't like models over 5 days they keep changing one way or the other, trough , no trough, gaston no gaston, ridge strong enough not strong enough. Why do these models not pick these tendencies up a wk in advance? Because the atmosphere changes quickly. So we are now back to square one of what was looking like a s fla hit, suddenly backing off and skimming coast, possible up to savannah, that's a huge diff. And let's don't forget it may change back to left again in 48-60 hrs, because trough may not dip as far as progs say. As some on the msg board say including me when a cane is this far out its purely guess work.

[Jevo]

you say model run(s) you are only basing your info on the GFDL... which has this storm moving wayyy to quickly as it is... all of the others see the trough picking up and getting out... letting the ridge build in

[LAwxrgal]

Bottom line, we don't know yet. We will have a better idea later on in the forecast period. Until then, just watch and prepare!

[dixiebreeze]

Frances looks to be intensifying again in the latest IR, which, I think, was pretty much predicted:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[PurdueWx80]

Disagree - looks like an eyewall replacement cycle to me. If that's the case, intensification won't happen for another 6-12 hours at least.

[Guest]

yea, it definitly looks like theirs an eye wall replacement cycle going on. But when tis finished, it could reach cat 5 status (at least its more likely)

[LAwxrgal]

Would it create a weakness in the forecasted ridge? Enough to turn the storm north?

This was forecast to move east away, and instead it's drifting west to west-northwest.

[cycloneye]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/1745 UTC 18.8N 55.0W T5.5/5.5 FRANCES -- Atlantic Ocean

[PurdueWx80]

Stay tuned!

URNT11 KNHC 291805
97779 18054 10172 61600 56300 99005 56//1 /4589
RMK AF861 0106A FRANCES OB 01

[senorpepr]

1805Z
17.2N 61.6W
No turbulence
Clear flight
Flight level: 18,500ft
Flight level wind: Vrb 05KT
Temp: -6C
Dewpoint: n/a
Weather: Scattered Clouds
500mb height: 19,300ft