Ivan Advisories

[rockyman]

aqua...that was from this morning (Thursday AM)...he basically thinks that GFS is out to lunch

[wsquared77]

Everything I here about the impact there is devestating. We are certainly keeping the folks there in our thoughts and prayers

[Patrick99]

i wouldn't even worry about it yet. Everyone at work today is all concerned, but I keep telling them that the track changes all the time.

Judging from past experience, having the 5 day track pointed right at you usually means you won't get hit.

[rockyman]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 091222
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040909 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040909 1200 040910 0000 040910 1200 040911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 70.8W 15.4N 73.3W 16.4N 75.4W 17.1N 77.0W
BAMM 14.2N 70.8W 15.2N 73.2W 15.9N 75.2W 16.5N 76.6W
A98E 14.2N 70.8W 15.2N 73.2W 16.2N 75.5W 17.1N 77.6W
LBAR 14.2N 70.8W 15.5N 73.3W 16.9N 75.5W 17.6N 77.5W
SHIP 140KTS 138KTS 136KTS 134KTS
DSHP 140KTS 138KTS 136KTS 91KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040911 1200 040912 1200 040913 1200 040914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 78.1W 18.7N 79.9W 21.1N 81.1W 24.6N 80.3W
BAMM 17.1N 77.6W 18.9N 79.5W 21.3N 81.0W 24.5N 80.5W
A98E 17.4N 79.5W 17.9N 82.4W 17.5N 84.2W 18.0N 85.6W
LBAR 17.9N 79.2W 19.6N 81.7W 23.0N 82.5W 27.0N 80.8W
SHIP 136KTS 129KTS 122KTS 106KTS
DSHP 96KTS 89KTS 56KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 70.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 68.3W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 65.5W
WNDCUR = 140KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 125KT
CENPRS = 919MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 140NM

[Ed25]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories200 ... -2015z.jpg

[Travelgirl]

I just went on to accuweather website and saw their forcast of 80% chance Ivan will come more to the central GOM. They are saying only a 20% chance of a southern florida landfall.

Yikes

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040909 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040909 1200 040910 0000 040910 1200 040911 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 70.8W 15.4N 73.3W 16.4N 75.4W 17.1N 77.0W
BAMM 14.2N 70.8W 15.2N 73.2W 15.9N 75.2W 16.5N 76.6W
A98E 14.2N 70.8W 15.2N 73.2W 16.2N 75.5W 17.1N 77.6W
LBAR 14.2N 70.8W 15.5N 73.3W 16.9N 75.5W 17.6N 77.5W
SHIP 140KTS 138KTS 136KTS 134KTS
DSHP 140KTS 138KTS 136KTS 91KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040911 1200 040912 1200 040913 1200 040914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 78.1W 18.7N 79.9W 21.1N 81.1W 24.6N 80.3W
BAMM 17.1N 77.6W 18.9N 79.5W 21.3N 81.0W 24.5N 80.5W
A98E 17.4N 79.5W 17.9N 82.4W 17.5N 84.2W 18.0N 85.6W
LBAR 17.9N 79.2W 19.6N 81.7W 23.0N 82.5W 27.0N 80.8W
SHIP 136KTS 129KTS 122KTS 106KTS
DSHP 96KTS 89KTS 56KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 70.8W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 68.3W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 65.5W
WNDCUR = 140KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 125KT
CENPRS = 919MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 140NM

[alicia-w]

phenomenal image

[ncbird]

They showed some aireal shots of it on TV... so much loss and distruction left behind. So very sad.

[canegrl04]

AWESOME I love those global sat images of hurricanes

[wsquared77]

Wow. Pictures like that really make you realize the size of these storms. Great photo.

[rockyman]

The 12z tropical suite is west of the 06z suite...though the BAMD is still showing a close call with SE Fla

[Zadok]

Tourists ordered to evacuate Keys as Ivan track points to Florida

Associated Press
Posted September 9 2004, 8:34 AM EDT

All tourists and recreational vehicles were urged to evacuate the Keys early today because the powerful Hurricane Ivan could hit the island chain by Sunday.

Monroe County emergency officials said the order was effective at 9 a.m. Thursday. It is the third visitor evacuation ordered in the Keys in a month, the previous two coming for Hurricanes Charley and Frances.


Mobile home residents were urged to begin evacuating at 6 p.m. Thursday.

At 8 a.m., Ivan's center was about 455 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, or about 1,000 miles southeast of Miami. It had top sustained winds of 160 mph. National Hurricane Center forecasters predict that Ivan could hit the Florida Keys late Sunday or early Monday.

Under its current projected track, Ivan would be just south of the Keys on Monday, in a position to travel right up the state. South Florida might start feeling its outer bands a day earlier.

Ivan pummeled Grenada, Barbados and other islands with its devastating winds and rains Thursday, causing at least 15 deaths, before setting a direct course for Jamaica, Cuba and the hurricane-weary southern United States.

Ivan strengthened early Thursday to become a Category 5 on a scale of 5. It packed sustained winds of 160 mph with higher gusts as it passed north of the Dutch Caribbean islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao.

The most powerful hurricane to hit the Caribbean in 10 years damaged 90 percent of the homes in Grenada and destroyed a 17th century stone prison that left criminals on the loose as looting erupted, officials said Wednesday.

Some escaped convicts included politicians jailed for 20 years for killings in a 1983 left-wing palace coup that led the United States to invade Grenada.

American medical students fearful of marauders armed themselves with knives and sticks. ``We are terribly devastated ... It's beyond imagination,'' Prime Minister Keith Mitchell said from aboard a British Royal Navy vessel that rushed to the rescue.

Before it slammed into Grenada on Tuesday, Ivan gave Barbados and St. Vincent a pummeling, damaging hundreds of homes and cutting utilities. Thousands of people remained without electricity and water on Wednesday.

In Tobago, officials reported a 32-year-old pregnant woman died when a 40-foot palm tree fell into her home, pinning her to her bed.

In Venezuela, a 32-year-old man died after battering waves engulfed a kiosk on the northern coast.

A 75-year-old Canadian woman was found drowned in a canal swollen by flood waters in Barbados. Neighbors said the Toronto native, who had lived in Barbados for 30 years, braved the storm to search for her cat.

Details on the extent of the death and destruction in Grenada did not emerge until Wednesday because the storm cut all communications with the country of 100,000 people, and halted radio transmissions on the island.

Mitchell confirmed that prison escapees included some of the 17 people jailed for life for killings during a 1983 Marxist coup, but he didn't know who they were or if they included former Deputy Prime Minister Bernard Coard.

Mitchell, whose own home was flattened, said 90 percent of houses on the island were damaged and he feared the death toll would rise. He said much of the country's agriculture had been destroyed, including the key nutmeg crop.

``If you see the country today, it would be a surprise to anyone that we did not have more deaths than it appears at the moment,'' Mitchell said.

Within hours, Grenada's Police Commissioner Roy Bedaau raised the death toll to 12, in an interview with Voice of Barbados radio, but he provided no details.

Grenada is known as a major producer of nutmeg, and drew worldwide attention for the U.S. invasion that followed the coup, when American officials had determined Grenada's airport was going to become a joint Cuban-Soviet base. Cuba said it was helping build the airport for civilian use. Nineteen Americans died in the fighting and a disputed number of others that the United States put at 45 Grenadians and 24 Cubans.

U.N. spokesman Fred Eckhard said virtually every major building in St. George's has suffered structural damage. Grenada's once-quaint capital boasted English Georgian and French provincial buildings.

The United Nations is sending a disaster team, Eckhard said in New York City. The Caribbean disaster response agency, based in Barbados, said its team arrived Wednesday afternoon along with U.S. aid and Pan American Health Organization officials.

Because of poor communications, it was not possible to reach any of them.

``It looks like a landslide happened,'' said Nicole Organ, a 21-year-old veterinary student from Toronto at St. George's University, which overlooks the Grenadian capital. ``There are all these colors coming down the mountainside _ sheets of metal, pieces of shacks, roofs came off in layers.''

Students there, mostly Americans, were arming themselves with knives, sticks and pepper spray against looters, said Sonya Lazarevic, 36, from New York City. ``We don't feel safe,'' she said by telephone.

When Organ wandered downtown after the hurricane passed, she said she saw bands of men carrying machetes looting a hardware store. She said she saw a bank with glass facade intact on her way down that was smashed when she returned.

While the storm passed, students hid under mattresses or in bathrooms. ``The pipes were whistling, the doors were vibrating, gusts were coming underneath the window,'' Lazarevic said. ``It was absolutely terrifying.''

The storm's howling winds and drenching rains flooded parts of Venezuela's north coast. Helicopter charter companies were busy Wednesday ferrying evacuated workers back to offshore oil drilling platforms there.

Ivan is expected to reach Jamaica by Friday and Cuba by the weekend, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said.

It would follow close on the heels of Hurricane Charley, which killed 27 people in southwest Florida last month and caused an estimated $6.8 billion in insured damage.

``After Jamaica, it's probably going to hit somewhere in the U.S., unfortunately,'' meteorologist Jennifer Pralgo said. ``We're hoping it's not Florida again, but it's taking a fairly similar track to Charley at the moment.''

Another meteorologist at the Miami center, Hugh Cobb, added this grim warning: ``Whoever gets this, it's going to be bad.''

Cobb said that if Ivan hit Jamaica, it could be more destructive than Hurricane Gilbert, which was only Category 3 when it devastated the island in 1988.

Jamaica posted a hurricane watch Wednesday afternoon and ordered all schools closed and fishermen to pull their skiffs ashore and head for dry land. Haiti's southwest peninsula was on hurricane watch as well.

At 5 a.m. EDT, Ivan was centered about 535 miles east-southeast of Jamaica. Hurricane-force winds extended up to 60 miles and tropical storm-force winds another 160 miles. Ivan was moving west-northwest at 15 mph.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... news-front

[seahawkjd]

I'm in the middle of teaching a class on hieroglyphics as I read this. There is s certain irony

[jdt]

I cannot speak for anyone else but I suspect most pro mets have a lower amount of confidence then usual with regard to Ivan's future track beyond the 72-hour period. It seems fairly certain Ivan will be near or over Jamaica in the 36-48 hour timeframe. Beyond that the Caymans and western Cuba are likely next in line in about 72 hours. But beyond that confidence drops off substantially. Ivan will be on a curving track from WNW to NW to NNW to N. It can be difficult enough to deal with deviations on a straight track let alone a parabolic track. Threat area IMO from about the New Orleans to extreme SE Florida with greatest threat ATT aimed at the Western Keys up the Florida gulf coast into the Florida panhandle. As for intensity I expect Ivan remains a strong CAT 4 or CAT 5 hurricane during the next 72 hours. Beyond that intensity still likely to remain as a CAT 3 or stronger but interactions with land and other variables lead to greater uncertainty as to precise strength. I believe there is a better then average chance the US will experience another major land falling hurricane early next week.

JDT

[Tempest]

Beautiful photo...I felt like I was looking down from space. Thanks!

[debbiet]

I've heard on this board with previous storms that the extreme intensity of a Cat 5 makes it very difficult for any hurricane to sustain very long. Is it the opinions of the professionals on here that Ivan will be able to sustain such incredible force throughout the forecast period and is this unusual?

[Hurrilurker]

Maybe. On the other side the reds around the eye are diminishing and CDO has shrunk. Probably consequence of the slightly cooler waters Ivan is now passing over. Let's hope it will weaken (at least from Cat5 to Cat4) before hitting Jamaica.

I'd say it's already back down to a Cat-4. Not that that means anything at all. Expecting it to stay at Cat-5 strength for more than a few hours is not realistic and it's certainly going to have several more opportunities to get back to 5 status. I fully expect it at some point, let's just hope it is not such that it happens just before landfall, and hopefully not also at high tide.

[Carolina_survivor]

Beautiful!

[tronbunny]

Code: Select all

AIDS FOR

HURRICANE IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040909 1200 UTC

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040911 1200 040912 1200 040913 1200 040914 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 78.1W 18.7N 79.9W 21.1N 81.1W 24.6N 80.3W
BAMM 17.1N 77.6W 18.9N 79.5W 21.3N 81.0W 24.5N 80.5W

SHIP 136KTS 129KTS 122KTS 106KTS
DSHP 96KTS 89KTS 56KTS 32KTS



Will someone please shoot the BAMM/BAMD and SHIP models?