Ivan Advisories

[dhweather]

Hence the uncertainty >72 hours.

UKMET says GOM, other say FL. All agree Jamacia
for now.

Stay tuned.

[msbee]

http://www.trinidadexpress.com/index.pl ... d=37305520
for video
and for pictures
http://stormcarib.com/reports/2004/antigua.shtml

[frankthetank]

link dead?

[canegrl04]

I think for now we better be praying for the folks of Jamaica

[ColdWaterConch]

They are doing this to get the ball rolling, and get some of the mobile home residents out of the keys.

Honestly, I think the locals are going to be hesitant to leave since Georges was such a dud (in KW).

[ricreig]

If there was any time to be scared it's now because Ivan is out of control! I don't see how this storm could be a fish at all!

Being scared is a bit premature and is contraproductive at best. Better, be proactive, make plans, no, make that *complete* plans, get what supplies are available to tide you over and be prepared to leave.

Richard
(the pessimist - seldom disappointed ...
the optomist - often disappointed)

[caneman]

Looking better for the west coast!!

Trending West is definitely not better for us on the West Coast.

[bfez1]

Ivan is headed to Florida!!!

[dhweather]

I think for now we better be praying for the folks of Jamaica

Exactly. They are in the bullseye right now.

[HurricaneGirl]

I'm sorry, I guess I was having a little panic attack!! Where's my Valium

[tracyswfla]

Looking better for the west coast!!

Trending West is definitely not better for us on the West Coast.

This is not good. I wonder when the evac orders will come for us here on the West Coast?

[dhweather]

Anyone up for cruise south of Cuba on Saturday?

[msbee]

I just had it working 10 minutes ago
keep trying?

[HurricaneGirl]

Let's just pray that it weakens before it hits anywhere!!

[Hurrilurker]

This is sad......three strikes and you're out. This will devastate the economy of Florida for, at least, a year. Tourism will practically halt on such a tourism dependent state until next Summer, IMO. I'm still hoping it turns for these poor people in Florida. This will likely affect the national economy for some time to come with the huge amounts of job losses in Florida. They were talking about this on FoxNews.

I saw an interesting roundtable on tv after Frances. While they expect some short-term economic losses, the agreement of the panel was unanimous that in the long-term, destructive hurricanes were good for the national economy, as the amount of jobs and revenues generated by construction (repair and building new houses/buildings) is immense. Yes, more than enough to offset the losses from damage, tourism, orange crops, etc.. Which is still a lousy deal if you're one of the people whose house got leveled, or business was interrupted, but for the national economy in general, it's good. An interesting perspective I had never thought about before.

[Stormcenter]

Ivan is headed to Florida!!!

Looks that way based on the NHC projected track so
I won't argue.

[B-Bear]

Our local weatherman in Mobile this morning said that the winds should reduce to about 135 mph when it gets to the Miami area. He meant that far up - not that it is going to Miami.

That is a RIDICULOUS statement. Hurricanes DO NOT have any trouble maintaining cat 5 status. The difficulty lies in favorable atmospheric conditions remaining stable for extended periods of times to enable the cat 5 to sustain that intensity for that long. In order for a cat 5 to happen, conditions have to be "just right." What is unusual is for the conditions to remain in place for extended periods of time. But for him to suggest that it will reduce to 135 mph, without explaining why he believes that, is utterly ridiculous.

Why is this ridiculous? The TPC is predicting weakening to about 135 at landfall. The only thing ridiculous about that ascertion would be that the local met didn't give credit to the TPC for already making that prediction. They are the experts afterall.

Well, you'll notice that I qualified my statement by saying it was ridiculous IF he made that comment without explaining his reasoning. If his reasons for saying that is because specific conditions are forecast to exist which will help to reduce intensity prior to landfall, that's one thing. But if he said it from a standpoint of "category 5 hurricanes have difficulty maintaining that intensity," that is bunk. Category 5 hurricanes DO NOT have difficulty maintaining their intensity. They will remain a cat 5 storm for as long as atmosheric conditions support it, with only ERCs causing fluctuations in intensity.

[dhweather]

King - I think you have some valid points.

These frequent wobbles and at times trends West make you wonder if the ridge is building in from the NE

[c5Camille]

Ivan is headed to Florida!!!

Ivan is headed for Jamaica... anything beyond that is speculative...
we have to look at the cone beyond that...

[dhweather]

Our local mets in New Orleans are telling us not to worry that this storm is not coming our direction. I think they shouldn't lead the community into false sense of safety. When talking to other co-workers and friends, I find they are not concerned. No one is watching the storm. I'm afraid if not this storm but maybe the another, this city will be caught off guard.

N.O. Mets are always like that. Even when a storm is 80 miles off the coast, they are still playing it down. Especially Dan Milham on NBC WDSU Ch. 6. According to him, the entire SE coast of LA has some sort of force field around it that will not allow a hurricane to enter.

Is that so true!! Milham is a fruitcake, acting as if nothing can hit NOLA.

Bob Breck is opposite, he's very good and tries hard to make sure folks pay attention.