Frances Advisories

[das8929]

The reason it looks like crap is that its doing another eyewall replacement cycle. It did one just before it got to Cat 3. So tomorrow it can be strong Cat 4 or even Cat 5.

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 20

Statement as of 21:00Z on August 29, 2004

at 5 PM AST...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued
for the following Leeward Islands by their government officials...
saint maarten....Anguilla...Barbuda...and Antigua. The tropical
storm watch may be extended to the British Virgin Islands later
tonight.

Interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and the northeastern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Frances.

Hurricane center located near 18.8n 55.6w at 29/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the west or 280 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 949 mb
eye diameter 10 nm
Max sustained winds 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.
64 kt....... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
50 kt....... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
34 kt.......100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.
12 ft seas..230ne 170se 150sw 200nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 18.8n 55.6w at 29/2100z
at 29/1800z center was located near 18.7n 55.1w

forecast valid 30/0600z 19.1n 57.0w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
64 kt... 35ne 35se 35sw 35nw.
50 kt... 65ne 65se 65sw 65nw.
34 kt...120ne 120se 120sw 120nw.

Forecast valid 30/1800z 19.5n 59.5w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
50 kt... 70ne 70se 70sw 70nw.
34 kt...130ne 130se 130sw 130nw.

Forecast valid 31/0600z 20.0n 62.0w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
64 kt... 45ne 45se 45sw 45nw.
50 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.
34 kt...140ne 140se 140sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 31/1800z 20.5n 64.5w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 80sw 80nw.
34 kt...150ne 140se 140sw 150nw.

Forecast valid 01/1800z 22.5n 69.5w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
50 kt... 85ne 85se 85sw 85nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 150sw 160nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 02/1800z 24.0n 73.0w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.

Outlook valid 03/1800z 25.5n 76.5w
Max wind 125 kt...gusts 155 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 18.8n 55.6w

next advisory at 30/0300z

forecaster Avila

[Guest]

I guess they don't weaken it because they know its an eye wall replacement cycle.

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 20

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 29, 2004

...Powerfull Hurricane Frances continues on a slow westward track...

at 5 PM AST...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued
for the following Leeward Islands by their government officials...
saint maarten....Anguilla...Barbuda...and Antigua. The tropical
storm watch may be extended to the British Virgin Islands later
tonight.

Interests in the northern Lesser Antilles and the northeastern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of Frances.

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 18.8 north...longitude 55.6 west or about 495
miles... 795 km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Frances is moving toward the west near 9 mph ...15 km/hr. This
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours

maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next
24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles... 55 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

Minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane was 949
mb...28.02 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...18.8 N... 55.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 949 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
AST.

Forecaster Avila

[ColinD]

"An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM AST"

[Lowpressure]

Gotta love the 948mb estimate then the hunters record 949mb, cudos NHC.

[wx247]

The northern outflow looks absolutely beautiful!

[Brent]

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 20

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 29, 2004

a reconnaissance plane just reached the eye of Frances and measured
a minimum pressure of 949 mb in a 12 nmi eye with flight level
winds of 112 knots. A drop measured 127 knots at the 913 mb level
but this number is not very representative of the surface winds.
Since the plane has not sampled the entire circulation...it is
assumed that the maximum winds remain at 115 knots. The initial
intensity could be a little bit lower. On satellite...the cloud
pattern continues to be impressive but with a less distinct eye.
Frances could either intensify a little bit more...but most likely
...The hurricane will experience some fluctuations in intensity.
Nevertherless..it is expected to remain an intense Hurricane.

Frances has slowed down and is moving toward the west or 280 degrees
at 8 knots. As forecast...the subtropical ridge has been building
and expanding to the north of the hurricane. This ridge will force
the hurricane on a general west and then west-northwest track
through 5 days. Latest model runs are gradually shifting the track a
little more the north at the end of the forecast period. That
includes both the GFS and the UK models which previously brough the
hurricane to near the Florida Keys or South Florida. These models
are still bringing the hurricane very close to Florida but at a
higher latitude. The official forecast remains unchanged and is
very close to the global model consensus. The next global model
runs will take advantage of data gather from the GPS dropsondes to
be launch from the NOAA high altitude jet. We will carefully
monitor the impact on these new observations in tonight's runs.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/2100z 18.8n 55.6w 115 kt
12hr VT 30/0600z 19.1n 57.0w 120 kt
24hr VT 30/1800z 19.5n 59.5w 120 kt
36hr VT 31/0600z 20.0n 62.0w 120 kt
48hr VT 31/1800z 20.5n 64.5w 120 kt
72hr VT 01/1800z 22.5n 69.5w 120 kt
96hr VT 02/1800z 24.0n 73.0w 125 kt
120hr VT 03/1800z 25.5n 76.5w 125 kt

[NCWeatherChic]

a reconnaissance plane just reached the eye of Frances and measured
a minimum pressure of 949 mb in a 12 nmi eye with flight level
winds of 112 knots. A drop measured 127 knots at the 913 mb level
but this number is not very representative of the surface winds.
Since the plane has not sampled the entire circulation...it is
assumed that the maximum winds remain at 115 knots. The initial
intensity could be a little bit lower. On satellite...the cloud
pattern continues to be impressive but with a less distinct eye.
Frances could either intensify a little bit more...but most likely
...The hurricane will experience some fluctuations in intensity.
Nevertherless..it is expected to remain an intense Hurricane.

Frances has slowed down and is moving toward the west or 280 degrees
at 8 knots. As forecast...the subtropical ridge has been building
and expanding to the north of the hurricane. This ridge will force
the hurricane on a general west and then west-northwest track
through 5 days. Latest model runs are gradually shifting the track a
little more the north at the end of the forecast period. That
includes both the GFS and the UK models which previously brough the
hurricane to near the Florida Keys or South Florida. These models
are still bringing the hurricane very close to Florida but at a
higher latitude. The official forecast remains unchanged and is
very close to the global model consensus. The next global model
runs will take advantage of data gather from the GPS dropsondes to
be launch from the NOAA high altitude jet. We will carefully
monitor the impact on these new observations in tonight's runs.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 29/2100z 18.8n 55.6w 115 kt
12hr VT 30/0600z 19.1n 57.0w 120 kt
24hr VT 30/1800z 19.5n 59.5w 120 kt
36hr VT 31/0600z 20.0n 62.0w 120 kt
48hr VT 31/1800z 20.5n 64.5w 120 kt
72hr VT 01/1800z 22.5n 69.5w 120 kt
96hr VT 02/1800z 24.0n 73.0w 125 kt
120hr VT 03/1800z 25.5n 76.5w 125 kt

$$

[PurdueWx80]

The northern outflow looks absolutely beautiful!

Arrgggh...you beat me to it. Looks like a super-fast outflow channel is developing. This has been forecast by the models (GFS and GFDL), but not this soon. Once this eyewall cycle is complete, I could see Frances getting to Cat 5 rather quickly.

[wx247]

Score 1 for me, 58907863 for you.

[quickychick]

GAAAAHHH!H!H!H nevermind. image at top updated with 5 pm advisory.

[marciacubed]

Thanks so much for keeping us updated. I know that is alot of hard work but I do enjoy seeing how accurate the NHC predictions are. Please continue

[quickychick]

Marciacubed (hee, you Brady Bunchette you) it's not hard work at all, I just got frustrated with editing the first post. It seemed like the s2k server would never respond.

But, it did and all is right with the world and I will keep on keeping on if y'all are interested!

[ChaserUK]

Brilliant graphic there - thanks very much! Great post. One word, consistent springs to mind.

[Derek Ortt]

and near FL in 5 days

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

graphic will be available in 5 to 10 minutes

[Deenac813]

Yikes! Does not look good for us does it?

[rainstorm]

it looks like the eye is filling in. does that mean a more west movement?

[Derek Ortt]

No...

This does not look good for anyone from Mia northward along the FL coast

[rainstorm]

doesnt mean a more west movement? i am hoping it heads through the straits