Ivan Advisories

[robag]

This is getting to be a scary situation for Key Largo. The schools will be closed tomorrow until further notice. I don't know where to evacuate to.

[MBryant]

The ridge is getting narrower and narrower if the vaper loop is to be believed.

Ivan definitely looks more Northwest this morning to my chagrin as one of the last Central America proponents. I still don't understand the Northern component of it's movement.

If the Bermuda ridge which is moving towards the Southwest and the CONUS high building toward the Southeast come together, why wouldn't Ivan keep a more westward tract?

Has the ULL to Ivan's west caused this turn to the NW after having little or no effect previously?

Is Ivan working around the Bermuda High or the ULL? The difference is the direction she will take just South of Bermuda. (ULL - Leftward turn, BH - rightward turn)

Why doesn't Ivan want to head toward the ULL? Does it have to do with the Upper level anticyclone venting Ivan Needs?

I know this is a lot of questions, but I feel I am close to a basic understanding, just not quite there yet.

[dhweather]

This is getting to be a scary situation for Key Largo. The schools will be closed tomorrow until further notice. I don't know where to evacuate to.

Your local officials best be able to answer that question!!

[Brent]

Well... I think the longest a Cat 5 ever stayed one was 60-72 hours. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean it can't weaken and then re-strengthen.

[skysummit]

Our local mets in New Orleans are telling us not to worry that this storm is not coming our direction. I think they shouldn't lead the community into false sense of safety. When talking to other co-workers and friends, I find they are not concerned. No one is watching the storm. I'm afraid if not this storm but maybe the another, this city will be caught off guard.

N.O. Mets are always like that. Even when a storm is 80 miles off the coast, they are still playing it down. Especially Dan Milham on NBC WDSU Ch. 6. According to him, the entire SE coast of LA has some sort of force field around it that will not allow a hurricane to enter.

Is that so true!! Milham is a fruitcake, acting as if nothing can hit NOLA.

Bob Breck is opposite, he's very good and tries hard to make sure folks pay attention.

I agree....Bob Breck is my favorite. By the way, what's up with his hair? What is Carl Arredondo saying about Ivan?

[duris]

John Gumm and Dave Barnes (NO mets with with WWL tv) have been posting on their forum Gumm had this interesting discussion on the possible impact of the typhoon over Japan. He has also been cautious in telling people its too early, etc.

An interesting note here. Someone pointed this out on another forum so I decided to take a closer look. Specifically, I've been looking at some data tonight on the typhoon currently impacting Japan. This could have a MAJOR impact on the track of Ivan and I think the computers are picking up on it.

As the typhoon decays, the atmospheric waves down stream from it are forecasted to amplify, or get stronger. This makes perfect sense from a meteorological standpoint. What tends to happen is troughs get stronger and ridges get stronger. In this case, the trough over Alaska will strengthen more than normal if the computers are right due to the typhoon. As the trough over Alaska digs, a ridge will be built up over the central US causing the trough currently over the east coast to deepen, not flatten out, as normally would be the case, as Frances exits. This then leads to troughiness over the Gulf and the rapid break down of the ridge which is why the models are doing what they are doing.

This all makes perfect sense - remember global weather is tied together very closely. The only problem here is that the data coming out of the Pacific and entering the models may or may not be accurate. Any error in the data over Japan could cause a great track error in Ivan this far out.

Just a little something to think about tonight...

John


John Gumm
Meteorologist
WWL-TV
1024 North Rampart Street
New Orleans, LA 70116

[isobar]

Here's one from this morning. Hoping to get a better shot later today when the sun is at a higher angle.

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/index.cgi?page=items&ser=108193&large=1

[bfez1]

Ivan is headed to Florida!!!

Ivan is headed for Jamaica... anything beyond that is speculative...
we have to look at the cone beyond that...

Have you looked at the 5 day cone?
It's headed to Florida.

[dhweather]

Our local mets in New Orleans are telling us not to worry that this storm is not coming our direction. I think they shouldn't lead the community into false sense of safety. When talking to other co-workers and friends, I find they are not concerned. No one is watching the storm. I'm afraid if not this storm but maybe the another, this city will be caught off guard.

N.O. Mets are always like that. Even when a storm is 80 miles off the coast, they are still playing it down. Especially Dan Milham on NBC WDSU Ch. 6. According to him, the entire SE coast of LA has some sort of force field around it that will not allow a hurricane to enter.

Is that so true!! Milham is a fruitcake, acting as if nothing can hit NOLA.

Bob Breck is opposite, he's very good and tries hard to make sure folks pay attention.

I agree....Bob Breck is my favorite. By the way, what's up with his hair? What is Carl Arredondo saying about Ivan?

I don't know WHAT has happened to BOb's hair, but he needs to re-evaluate that.

[goodlife]

John....is that really you??

[TexasStooge]

PLEASE let it turn to the GOM!!! Florida doesn't need another Hurricane, or for that matter, it doesn't want a Cat. 5 Hurricane!

[MBryant]

I think for now we better be praying for the folks of Jamaica

ditto

The problem with praying away Ivan (as opposed to for the people) would be that is then endangers other people in other locations.

Lets hear it for:

1. Slowing down over the central carabbean (away from any islands)
2. Upwelling
3. destructive Eyewall replacement cycles
4. Dry air intrusion
5. Strong shear

[dhweather]

Incredible images!!!

[B-Bear]

I'm not trying to suggest that Ivan will not drop below a cat 5 again. I was only pointing out that it is silly to suggest he will based solely upon the fact that hurricanes have in the past rarely are able to maintain that intensity for extended periods of time. After all, hurricanes RARELY form below 10 degrees north latitude. Florida has RARELY been hit by 3 hurricanes in a season. Before hurricane Gilbert, no hurricane had EVER achieved a 888 mb pressure in recorded history.

All I'm saying is things such as RARELY and NEVER have little value to people who are trying to prepare for an undoubtedly catastrophic storm. If the guy is basing his comments upon forecast atmospheric conditions, that's one thing. But his statements are ridiculous if they are based upon the frequency of past occurences.

There's very little that is typical about Ivan.

[Nimbus]

I'm begining to wonder if the ridging ahead of Ivan is going to be stronger than the models originally projected?

[x-y-no]

I'm begining to wonder if the ridging ahead of Ivan is going to be stronger than the models originally projected?

Maybe ... that is the common error with the GFS, and hence with the derived models.

[CFLCaneWatcher]

In addition, and eyewall dropsonde recorded a wind speed of 175 kt at about 630 ft above sea level. Based on this information, ivan is easily upgraded to a 140-kt category 5 hurricane.


This was earlier this morning. I would find it hard to believe it would drop that much in the open waters. However, it will fluctuate. Maybe doing an EWR.

[rtd2]

Mbryant...the ULL definatly helps IVAN on strength one of the important factors inho in him gaining cat 5.... if ull pulls away enough this would certainly weaken the storm from cat 5...part of the reason "perfect" conditions area must in cat 5's

[Cookiely]

My uneducated opinion is between Naples and Tampa for its worth.

[Derek Ortt]

just written by Mr John Cangialosi, fellow co-president (along with myself), if the greater miami chapter of the ams

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl092004forecast.html