Ivan Advisories

[jlauderdal]

This is getting to be a scary situation for Key Largo. The schools will be closed tomorrow until further notice. I don't know where to evacuate to.

listen to your local officials..there will be no shortage of information

[rtd2]

quote"I'm begining to wonder if the ridging ahead of Ivan is going to be stronger than the models originally projected?"







THANKYOU! someone actually agrees with me

[AlabamaDave]

Too early to say, if the models keep shifting east it may be a fish

Really?? It's nice to know that the Lesser Antilles, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas are populated only by fish.

To be perfectly honest, the United States is far better prepared to absorb a blow from a major hurricane than any of the island nations. Not to diminish the terror that has already impacted Florida this season, but a direct strike on Jamaica and Cuba by Ivan will make Charley look like a dustdevil.

[Derek Ortt]

we will have a track graphic in just a few minutes, as soon as he runs the matlab programs and uploads the images

[Ed25]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_09.gif

[x-y-no]

His overall IR appearance doesn't look as strong, but the eye still looks well-formed and clear, so I doubt he's more than a little bit weaker at the moment.

[vbhoutex]

The WV loop definitely shows the ridge to be building S and W. For the time being this will keep Ivan on a more WNW than NW course.

The ridge over the W GOM is building in-we are experiencing mid-fall weather here in Houston-so it will be a factor in directing Ivan to a more Northerly course in the long run ALONG with the trough left behind by Frances. If the Western ridge remains as strong as expected its Eastern Periphery will be somewhere near NO by late in the weekend. If the trough left behind by Frances comes far enough south(and that is questionable with the current speed and location of TD Frances)it will help erode the Western edge of the currently building Bermuda high. That is what will influence the more northward motion that is currently expected. As always with tropical systems, it is all in the timing of the arrrival of these features and Ivan as to what he will eventually do. My current take remains a NO to N FL panhandle hit until I see more evidence of erosion as opposed to building in the ridge to Ivan's North.

[rtd2]

Dereck when you get time could you chime in on the Ridge building(imho) to the NE... I reposted on this this Morning and seemed to turn a few heads but as always would like your take on it! thanks

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Derek Ortt]

definately looks to be building, which is the reason we are ignoring the GFS and its derived models

[LaBreeze]

Thanks for the in depth explanation vbhoutex. We'll be watching those ridges and pressures closely. Keep us informed - always enjoy your posts.

[otowntiger]

I'm not trying to suggest that Ivan will not drop below a cat 5 again. I was only pointing out that it is silly to suggest he will based solely upon the fact that hurricanes have in the past rarely are able to maintain that intensity for extended periods of time. After all, hurricanes RARELY form below 10 degrees north latitude. Florida has RARELY been hit by 3 hurricanes in a season. Before hurricane Gilbert, no hurricane had EVER achieved a 888 mb pressure in recorded history.

All I'm saying is things such as RARELY and NEVER have little value to people who are trying to prepare for an undoubtedly catastrophic storm. If the guy is basing his comments upon forecast atmospheric conditions, that's one thing. But his statements are ridiculous if they are based upon the frequency of past occurences.

There's very little that is typical about Ivan.

Since there are so many variables and all of them have to fall exactly in line for a Cat 5 to stay cat 5, then it is not unreasonable to say that Cat 5's don't normally stay cat 5's for very long. A cat 5 would have a very hard time staying cat 5 if there was just moderate shear present or even just the slightest interaction with a land mass.

[Jevo]

Dereck... this is the one time I am praying that your forecast is right....

[LilNoles2004]

Bad News = Landfall VERY close to my house here at Shell Point.

Good News = Still days away from landfall and track is very subject to change! I don't see Ivan paying me a visit (gotta stay optimistic!)..

[Brent]

Whatever you do... get out of the Keys. Anything is better than that. The Keys will be under water if the storm goes across them as a Cat 4.

Another thing... there's only one road out of the Keys, so the evacuation will take a long time.

[Rainband]

still too close to me. I hope it doesn't verify but thanks derek

[B-Bear]

The only land mass between Ivan and Florida that is likely to effect the intensity of the hurricane is Cuba, and only then if Ivan tracks more across central Cuba. A western Cuba track isn't likely to diminish his intensity much at all, if any. As far as atmospheric conditions go, they are expected to become MORE FAVORABLE for further development at this point. Which brings me back to my question: What was this met basing his claims on? Is he privy to some information that I'm not seeing, because I do not see anything in the forecast to reduce this hurricane's intensity at this point. It can certainly happen. The shear that diminished Frances' intensity was a bit of a surprise. But short of something like that happening, he's going to remain a cat 5 or very intense cat 4 between now and landfall, IMO.

[ncweatherwizard]

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... /ivan.html

Intensity still a bit iffy...

And also the angle that this is approaching is a bit annoying...once again, a slight error is a big difference in landfall potential.

[Jevo]

This is why the NHC has dropsondes and multi million dollar computer systems and we dont......

You would have to believe some egg-head woke up this morning and said "hey Max look there is a ridge building in"

We always forecast for the now on this board and hindsight is definitly 20/20... The NHC dosnt have the luxury of saying.. oops my forecast was a bust after it lands 400nm from prediction...

Look back at the globals. This ridge is defined at this current position in each of them. I have to believe in my heart that the NHC knows what they are doing and would not be starting an evacuation of the ENTIRE keys if they thought for a second this storm was going to track 200nm to the west.

[Rainband]

Well, the end of the tourist "rush" is Labor Day weekend. So we're officially in off season now here in Florida. At least we're not being hit in the spring or early summer. The hurricane may devestate some industries, but the construction/labor intensive industries have more work than they can handle. To get a roofer, you have a minimum of a 4 week wait here in my area of FL. And the retailers, like Walmart, Home Depot and the grocery chains, are seeing record sales. I'm no economist, but I think it will all level out in the end.

The optimist,
...Jennifer...

I agree Jenn and Nice to see you. Man Florida needs another storm like we need a hole in our heads. BTW I agree Florida is strong, we may get knocked down but we get up again

[Guest]

Good on Frances Derek Congrad. on your forecast.