Frances Advisories

[Stormcenter]

As stated in earlier posts.....Conditions have to be unbelievably right for a Cane to hit S. FL. No major metropolitan hit for 40 years now....Doesn't that say something......If you look at the dirty air over the Bahamas now tailing up to Gaston....This will leave weakness that is all to prevelant when storms approach S. FL. Lets try to pinpoint that protection mechanism over S. FL. It is real!!

What is "dirty air" and what does it have to do with Frances turning northward or not? Whatever weakness Gaston does leave will be long gone when Frances gets there and believe me she is in no rush right now to do that. The key is how strong this ridge north of her and far does it extend as she moves generally wnw to w. Also will there be a trough strong enough to influence Frances when it gets to the area around the Bahamas. I hate to beat a dead horse again but just remember Andrew and Georges. Remember what they were "suppose" to do. My point to all this it just too early to make a definitive call on this so soon. I think it won't be until Thursday that we know for sure and that's ONLY if she doesn't slow or stall before then. Sorry for the long rant.

[Stormcenter]

huh?

According to Burn1 and flyingphish, Frances is going to be drawn into the wake of Gaston and the U.S. will be spared when Frances becomes a fish. Oh yeah, and it's impossible for a hurricane to hit southern Florida because of some giant tin-foil hat off the coast--or something like that.

Be nice B-Bear they are only posting their opinions.

[B-Bear]

huh?

According to Burn1 and flyingphish, Frances is going to be drawn into the wake of Gaston and the U.S. will be spared when Frances becomes a fish. Oh yeah, and it's impossible for a hurricane to hit southern Florida because of some giant tin-foil hat off the coast--or something like that.

Be nice B-Bear they are only posting their opinions.

That was nice. You should have seen the unedited version.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Let's just hope that "weakness" remains and the storm does turn North. These are awful bursts of energy from nature that destroy and disrupt many human lives. I sincerely hope that it does make that NW curve and believe that the ridge will not be in place enough to steer the storm to S. Florida. The storm is doing just as I thought it would when it comes to predicted course and I stated this last night in another thread with my thoughts. I believe it will come true..it may even curve more and skirt the Carolinas..but, that's hoping for alot (although not out of the question by any means).

[flyingphish]

Do not forget the troughs! B Bear ..so many folks look Right when they should be look'ing Left. Look at the big picture! Fall is coming..eh..even down here in S.Fl. Ah..and the Canes will beat the Noles six straight too!! In the Orange Bowl...That will be my Hurricane party!!

[B-Bear]

Do not forget the troughs! B Bear ..so many folks look Right when they should be look'ing Left. Look at the big picture! Fall is coming..eh..even down here in S.Fl. Ah..and the Canes will beat the Noles six straight too!! In the Orange Bowl...That will be my Hurricane party!!

Glad you mentioned that. I hadn't actually thought about how other weather systems might affect Frances' track until you brought it up.

[Matthew5]

The Cdo(Central dense overcast) Has become more round over the last few frames. With outflow improving in both the western in southern quads. The eye has also became smaller with a red band wraping around. I expect this storm to start getting stronger again. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[bobbisboy]

After the downgrade and the NHC thought on intensity in the 11PM...I was surprised to see her looking so good in the last few frames. Eye is small and over CDO seems to be expanding and deepening......thoughts ?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[chris_fit]

It'll be cat 4 agian by tomorrow night

[B-Bear]

It'll be cat 4 agian by tomorrow night

Errr...or tomorrow morning.

[Matthew5]

I just posted on this to. The outflow is looking much better with a more round cdo. I expect this thing to become a cat4 again.

[chris_fit]

agreed

[btangy]

Certainly looks that way. Looks like there is some light southerly wind shear the way the storm appears elongated to the N.

[btsgmdad]

The storm still looks a little out of sorts to me. The convection is still off to the northeast of the center. It looked much more symmetrical yesterday. Still it looks better now than it did when the hurricane hunters were in there. These things usually do intensify at night.

A minor milestone, my 50th post.

[Matthew5]

The shear appears to be ending by looking at the outflow moving out. With more round cdo.

[btsgmdad]

Ditto

[btangy]

The large scale flow is from S to N.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

The cirrus you see to the south moving out is due to Frances' very strong outflow. There is still some background shear present.

[B-Bear]

If I understand it correctly, the elongation and the outflow channels can be an indication that the ridge is impacting the system now, so we may see an increase in forward speed soon. Was it Isabel or Floyd that looked like that right before it exploded?

[mf_dolphin]

I don't see a big trough heading down anywhere in the near future. Right now the models are calling for the ridge to build behind Gaston and keep Frances runiing w-wnw through at least 24 hours. It's a waiting game now...

High bandwidth warning :-0

This is one of my favorite "big picture" shots.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat ... op-12.html

[Matthew5]

Isabel before it bombed had super outflow from the trough on the eastern side.