Frances Advisories

[obxhurricane]

at 132 hrs I'd say the GFS solution is a weary one for the Carolinas...

Note the distinct coastal trough forming...a nice weakness for such a storm to feel.

[btangy]

That's the old GFS run

[frankthetank]

Andrew.... anyone? anyone?

[btsgmdad]

Looks like Ivan is on the horizon as well.

[flyingphish]

On that note..if there is plenty of time to the East..there may be plenty of time to the West..fair point I would think. Seems to me that time would favor the troughs as Fall is nearing. Longer Frances meanders greater the chance for a right track. Just trying to play objectively Forecaster Houtex . I ceretainly respect your knowledge.

[btsgmdad]

That one is really scary, yet more and more of these keep moving south. Be on the lookout GOM.

[Derecho]

I got to get serious here...ok...so now we also have to start thinking about the gulf coast too, right?

day 10 doesn't look good

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_240m.gif

At the time you posted this that was the 0Z run from LAST NIGHT.

The NEW GFS is turning North NORTH of Florida.

[bahamaswx]

Frances looks to show up Charley methinks.

[Lindaloo]

It means that it will stay more south. With a landfall in southern Florida likely then Gulf of Mexico.

[Derecho]

That one is really scary, yet more and more of these keep moving south. Be on the lookout GOM.

Umm, no they don't. GFS isn't further south.

[Derecho]

It means that it will stay more south. With a landfall in southern Florida likely then Gulf of Mexico.

The GFS has that data and is more north.

[vbhoutex]

You have to actually have the troughs coming in for your theory to work. We are currently in a strongly zonal flow which basically means there is not much chance of your trough scenario happening as you hope. We shall see who is right in the end. As I have previously when I have been incorrect I will start up the crow barby if it is necessary. At this point it appears to me that the barby will not have too many around it, just a couple.

[frankthetank]

OK...models screw up...i don't look GFS ever...ECMWF is all i seem to look at ....well then weve got model conflict, right?

[Lindaloo]

It means that it will stay more south. With a landfall in southern Florida likely then Gulf of Mexico.

The GFS has that data and is more north.

[Huckster]

You make great point Burn 1 and I concur. Big trough heading down too. Glad too have some company round here.(anti- crisis crowd pretty thin ) Burn 1 for me too..LOL.

Phish, can you cite any model which is bringing in a big trough? I have seen no such thing in any models. The GFS and the Canadian have both shifted left, way left, of their previous runs. No indication of any great troughs there. That garbage you see in front of Frances, if I remember correctly, a few days ago was considerably more consolidated and organized. It was a much sharper and organized trough a few days back (the TUTT). It has steadily been breaking up into more cellular entities and moving west. That's evidence of a building subtropical ridge of high pressure, just as the models have been forecasting. Further proof is that Frances has turned west, even earlier than previous forecasts from TPC had indicated, though nothing supernatural. This is, of course, why TPC has shifted their track to the left early on. Lest you think there has been a rightward shift at the end of the TPC track, let me posit a possible explanation. In the last discussion, it was stated that the track early on had been adjusted south, but the latter positions left essentially the same. Plotted out, it might look better for Florida, but if you think about the explanation they give, Florida is definitely off the hook. In fact, it could be worse for them. All TPC did, best I can tell, was leave the day 4 and 5 positions unchanged. That is, in my opinion, because they're waiting to use tonight's new data in the next advisory (5:00 am). The early part was shifted left simply because of the continued westward motion. The net result is the appearance of a rightward shift at the end. With the early part of the track shifted left and a couple of more models shifting west, I think Florida is just as much at risk as ever. The next advisory will be interesting.

[obxhurricane]

At 168 HR the GFS is definately showing a NC/SC threat...

[hookemfins]

I find the ETA to be very useful for landfalling storms. I know it nailed ETA Charlie as a Ft Myres event.

[Lindaloo]

Hey obx, if you want this hurricane (because you live in NC) then you can certainly have it. Knock yourself out.

[Derecho]

And yes, it has the data from the G-IV recon....though as I've noted, that data is fairly irrelevant to whether there's a north turn on Days 5-7.

What matters is upstream data....right around this time frame, that improves dramatically as features that may turn Frances come off the Pacific and into the Canadian/US data net....

Of course, the Canadian is now through the Florida Straits missing FL to the SOUTH.....

[obxhurricane]

just for the record...I'm not -removed- here...I'm just calling it like I see it. The GFS is showing a Carolina threat...sheesh