Gaston Advisories

[Guest]

Wow, nice picture. Last rainbow I saw was in early august when I was in Maine.

[Hyperstorm]

Dr. Steve Lyons, being an influential TV meteorologist, shouldn't say such bold statements. This is well on its way of becoming our...not 2nd or 3rd or 4th for that matter...but our 5th hurricane of this unusual 2004 hurricane season...

[Stormsfury]

Addendum to my last post ... 7 different evening THIS MONTH I've seen a rainbow (or double rainbow) in the evening sky ...

[BUD]

If I were living along the Sc/NC coastline, I would treat it like the worst case scenario.... possible hurricane.

Just only one problem me and my wife have to go to work in this crap!!!!I hope the govenor of SC issue mandator evacuation.

[Derek Ortt]

could be anywhere between Charleston and Cape Fear, depending upon when the turn begins

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl072004forecast.html

[soonertwister]

The most beautiful double rainbow I've ever seen was a complete one from ground to ground, as a result of a large severe thunderstorm that was passing to my east. The air was quite cool but very humid, with what seemed almost like microdroplet water suspended in the air.

As I observed this beautiful sight, which was illuminating from the setting sun to the west, a large multifaceted cloud-to-cloud lightning bolt crossed the sky, seemingly going right through the middle of the rainbow to the opposite side. The whole effect was just ridiculously magical and sublime.

[TLHR]

Due to the situation with Gaston, I'm opening the Links section of my Yahoo Group: TLHR to the public. These links will be open until Gaston passes and will re-open if needed for Frances.

Click on the WWW to go to my Yahoo Group.

[seahawkjd]

just watched the radar. Clearly defined eye and heading due north right up 79th line of Longitude

[seahawkjd]

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kclx.shtml

Here's a link to a good radar loop

[Stormsfury]

Nope, it's still moving very slowly NW ...

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kclx.shtml

[NOAA-NHC Saubers1]

Im putting my money on a little river, sc landfall, or myrtle beach...

[seahawkjd]

It sure looks like its going North to me, well very slowly its not going much of anywhere. The weather channel had a radar up that showed it more clearly.

[Derek Ortt]

One thing I should have added but didnt (but will in the 11 p.m. update)

Conditions will deteriorate LONG before the center moves inland. In fact, radar shows that the edge of the main rain shield is not that far from the coast

[seahawkjd]

I looked at both. To be honest the radar you linked only shows the west wall of the storm so flucuations in the eye wall cause the direction to be misleading. I know that you know a lot more about this stuff then I do and I welcome being corrected, this is just my observation from the two radars.

[WXBUFFJIM]

That slow motion bothers me too Derek because of the rainfall aspect. Not only will we see a hurricane of possibly 85 mph, but also a 5 foot surge. That combined with the astronomical high tide isn't neccessarily a good thing with the full moon present. Howeverif this makes landfall earlier in the afternoon, we might be spared a bit since the high tide will be during the early evening along the SC coast. But rainfall is probably the big issue, especially if this thing continues to move slow. I wouldn't be surprised if some spots in the path of Gaston, especially along the SC/NC coast experiences over one foot of rainfall. But if this moves quicker, that could mean several inches of rain. The key is the timing of landfall, the exact location, which now appears to be north of Charleston closer to Myrtle Beach, and the forward speed, which makes a huge difference with respect to rainfall totals. Most people die from inland freshwater flooding from heavy rains in tropical cyclones these days and no doubt that is something worth stressing for the next day or two.

Jim

[doglegleft]

GFDL looks to be in agreement with you NOAA-NHC Saubers1... it does look to be taking a jog to the north...

How accurate are the models with a TS with little history of movement so close to the coast?

[NOAA-NHC Saubers1]

In my opinion, it looks more north, than northwest, maybe moving at 350 deg. northwest

[HurricaneBill]

Dr. Steve Lyons, being an influential TV meteorologist, shouldn't say such bold statements. This is well on its way of becoming our...not 2nd or 3rd or 4th for that matter...but our 5th hurricane of this unusual 2004 hurricane season...

I agree. This season is definitely going to be a truly memorable one. And not just because of Charley.

[NOAA-NHC Saubers1]

They really arent so accurate, because we have so little information to actually plug into the equations. But as of now, the movement Is definetly closer to due north, than northwest.

This storm is rather fun for us, we dont have many that are as spontaneous as this, how many storms form right off the coast this quickly, and just "hang" there until developing into a hurricane? not many...we love this one, its a great challenge!

[Matthew5]

Noaa-Nhc is this becoming better organized. In when do you think this might become a hurricane?