Frances Advisories

[Wthrman13]

these models are on crack....i don't get it....why the sudden flip..

This is pretty far out, in the 5-7 day time frame. Small changes early on can and do lead to large differences in this time-frame. It is not at all surprising to see this kind of behavior. What is surprising is that until this morning's runs, the GFS had been uncannily consistent in bringing Frances through southern FL into the Gulf. Also, earlier today the dynamical models all seemed to be pointing to a central FL landfall, again, uncannily in agreement for that far out.

[Stratosphere747]

It just seems confusing now...As if all the models that are coming are really changing...Some taking it more north, some south...Is this because of the NOAA info and how some models handle it...

[chris_fit]

Storm wobblin South, one model extreme right trend, the other extreme left trend,
ahhhhhh

[chris_fit]

link?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[hurricanetrack]

Here is tonight's OTIS map of SST anomalies...

notice that there really isn't a lot of cooler water except right near Charleston, SC. The remainder of the western Basin is somewhat above normal. The Gulf Stream is certainly in tact.

If Frances turns north because of a weakness and not necessarily a major trough like what turned Floyd- then it is possible for it to be a major hurricane at landfall. Hazel came north in mid-Oct as a cat-4. Helene did it in 1958. Fran turned north in 1996 as a cat-3. So we need to really watch this closely in the Carolinas as well as everywhere else.

[Wannabewxman79]

Geez, I don't believe he is wishing this on anyone and hasn't made a guess at where this storm is going 7 - 10 days out.. He is talking about what the subject of the thread is about.

[Sean in New Orleans]

...definitely going West of the NHC track for now...when it will jump up to there track remains to be seen, but, for now we can see differently. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[chris_fit]

I still doubt a "weakness" will turn a monster like Frances... There needs to be a trough or something. That ridge is gonna shoot it towards the FL east coast.

[chris_fit]

It is a little bit south... but latest GFDL shows way farther EAST than before... very interesting.

[Floridacaner]

Here's a link to most or all the models. A good ole Spaghetti run, take your pick.

http://www.hurricanealley.net/images/06LALLMDL.gif

[NFLnut]

Does anyone know why the GUNA poops out south of the Bahamas? I mean, certainly it wouldn't interpolate a hard left turn like that?

[Lindaloo]

I'm not relying on one model. We are talking about the GFS on this thread. I have not said once on this thread where I think this storm is going. Yikes...

I've seen the Canadian...and it looks just like the old GFS runs. I've also seen the EC...which is taking Frances Westward.

I haven't made a choice on where landfall will be...if at all, and I don't believe you have heard me say so...please get off my case.

I am not on your case. I can give my opinion as well.

[Cyclone Runner]

This is yesterday evening's bulletin from the Antigua Met Office. It should be updated shortly. Antigua and Barbuda, at the shoulder of the Leeward Islands will be the first country to directly experience Frances's wrath. Latest estimates indicate that these islands could still get a grazing blow with some damage, but the real intense component of the storm is still indicated to pass to the north.

http://www.antiguamet.com/

5 PM SUNDAY 29TH AUGUST 2004


 ...POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK...
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS...SAINT MAARTEN....ANGUILLA...BARBUDA... AND ANTIGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED TO THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  55.6 WEST OR ABOUT  495
MILES... 795 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
 
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UPTO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 949; MB...28.02 INCHES.

THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK PLACES FRANCES A LITTLE MORE SOUTH OF EARLIER TRACKS.  BASED UPON THE LATEST POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK, HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO PASS 200 MILES NORTH OF ANTIGUA BY 2AM TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS DISTANCE PUTS ALL OF THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH ISLANDS OUT OF THE ZONE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS, LATEST RECON REPORTS SUGGEST TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IS A REAL POSSIBILITY FOR BARBUDA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND ANGUILLA BY MONDAY EVENING.
 
APCEDI
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[Anonymous]

Here is the link to the loop http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[Cyclone Runner]

For Immediate Release SUNDAY, AUG. 29, '04
Government Information Service
Philipsburg, St. Maarten
Netherlands Antilles

Tel. 542-4119
Fax 543-1169
Chairman of EOC Governor Franklyn Richards says residents should continue to closely monitor the progress of Category 4 Hurricane Frances; Tropical Storm Watch in Effect

GREAT BAY, St. Maarten (GIS) -SPECIAL BULLETIN -
Chairman of the Emergency Operations Center (EOC) Governor Franklyn Richards is calling on residents to continue to closely monitor the progress of Category 4 Hurricane Frances on Monday and Tuesday.

Based on the 5.00pm Sunday August 29 advisory from the National Hurricane Center, a Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for St. Maarten.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 36 hours with possible wind speeds of up to 50 miles per hour.  Two to four inches of rainfall is expected.

Based on the Sunday 5.00pm advisory, Hurricane Frances is expected to pass less than 200 miles North of St. Maarten on Monday midnight going into Tuesday.

Contractors are being advised to activate contingency plans by securing building sites on Monday in preparation for tropical storm conditions that may be expected late Monday evening.

Residents are advised to make sure that there yards and surrounding areas have been cleared of all loose lying objects which may form a threat to persons and property during possible storm conditions.
Page 2

Persons residing in less secure dwellings are advised to prepare for tropical storm conditions that may be expected in the course of Monday evening through Tuesday.

Hurricane Frances, an intense major Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Intensity Scale of 1 to 5, has not passed the islands of the North Eastern Caribbean including St. Maarten.    

The Office of Fire and Disaster Preparedness & Management (OFDPM) along with the other nine Emergency Support Functions (ESFs) will continue to closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Frances.

As a core group of the EOC met on Sunday evening, a Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for St. Maarten.  The EOC assessed all information available pertaining to Hurricane Frances and will be meeting again on Monday morning at 8.00AM.

Residents will be kept informed concerning the progress of Hurricane Frances and whether any additional actions will be required on Monday morning via the broadcast media.

Some important terms that residents should be aware of are:

Tropical Storm Warning: Sustained winds within the range of 39 to 73 miles per hour are expected within a specified area within 24 hours or less.

Flash Flood Watch: A weather watch issued when there is a potential for flash flooding in a specific area.  A Flash Flood Warning is related to imminent flash floods and immediate action is necessary.  Avoid driving on roads along hillsides that are susceptive to rock and mudslides.

Hurricane Watch: A weather watch where there is a threat of hurricane conditions within 24 to 36 hours with wind speeds of more than 74 miles per hour.
 
Hurricane Warning: A weather warning issued for an area where there is a threat of hurricane force winds of more than 74 miles per hour within 24 hours or less.

Storm Surge: This entails an abnormal rise in sea level along the shore.

Small Craft Marine Advisory: Sea conditions are expected to deteriorate and small craft should not venture out to sea.

### GIS/Roddy Heyliger, Cell 5564217, 5529397 NR/RSH/148/04 - ESF/  Cell 5529397,
 
Roddy Heyliger
Communications Consultant

MEDPRO - Designed to broaden public knowledge by informing.
"The Value of Knowing First."
@ Government Communications
@ Corporate Communications

Email: heylrody@sintmaarten.net
Cell 599-5529397, 5564217

P.O.Box 414, Philipsburg
St. Maarten D.W.I.

APCEDI
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[Cyclone Runner]

FLOOD WATCH
St Thomas St John, Adjacent Islands (Virgin Islands)

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-002-302100-
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004
...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTH THROUGH EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX THROUGH TONIGHT...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM RINCON NORTHEAST AND EAST
THROUGH CEIBA...FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS
OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT SMALLER ISLANDS...FOR
TUESDAY...
MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE FRANCES WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...THE LOCAL EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS...AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 6 FEET AND GREATER TONIGHT. SURF WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX LATER TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THESE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL RESULT
IN BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 15 FEET...CREATING INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.
AS FRANCES PASSES TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
NORTHEAST THEN NORTH SWELLS WILL THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COASTLINES...CREATING VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET
AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 FEET...WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING.
THEREFORE...LOCAL BEACH GOERS...SURFERS AND SWIMMERS IN ST CROIX ARE
URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PARENTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT IN KEEPING SMALL
CHILDREN AWAY FROM THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND SURGING SURF.
IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. THIS IS A
SHORT LIVED AND NARROW OUTWARD FLOWING CURRENT. SWIM PARALLEL TO
THE BEACH...AND YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE GRIP OF THE RIP
CURRENT.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATION ARE:
CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX: 749 PM THIS EVENING
710 PM TUESDAY EVENING
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING...CAUSING INUNDATION OF COASTAL ROADS...LOW
LYING AREAS...AND BEACH EROSION. RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IN CASE COASTAL
FLOODING OCCURS OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THIS SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME...COASTAL RESIDENTS
SHOULD MAKE IMPORTANT PRELIMINARY PLANS TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND
PROPERTY.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
SITUATION.
$$
SEELEY


FLOOD WATCH
St Croix (Virgin Islands)

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-002-302100-
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004
...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTH THROUGH EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX THROUGH TONIGHT...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM RINCON NORTHEAST AND EAST
THROUGH CEIBA...FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS
OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT SMALLER ISLANDS...FOR
TUESDAY...
MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE FRANCES WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...THE LOCAL EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS...AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 6 FEET AND GREATER TONIGHT. SURF WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX LATER TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THESE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL RESULT
IN BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 15 FEET...CREATING INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.
AS FRANCES PASSES TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
NORTHEAST THEN NORTH SWELLS WILL THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COASTLINES...CREATING VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET
AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 FEET...WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING.
THEREFORE...LOCAL BEACH GOERS...SURFERS AND SWIMMERS IN ST CROIX ARE
URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PARENTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT IN KEEPING SMALL
CHILDREN AWAY FROM THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND SURGING SURF.
IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. THIS IS A
SHORT LIVED AND NARROW OUTWARD FLOWING CURRENT. SWIM PARALLEL TO
THE BEACH...AND YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE GRIP OF THE RIP
CURRENT.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATION ARE:
CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX: 749 PM THIS EVENING
710 PM TUESDAY EVENING
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING...CAUSING INUNDATION OF COASTAL ROADS...LOW
LYING AREAS...AND BEACH EROSION. RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IN CASE COASTAL
FLOODING OCCURS OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THIS SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME...COASTAL RESIDENTS
SHOULD MAKE IMPORTANT PRELIMINARY PLANS TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND
PROPERTY.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
SITUATION.
$$
SEELEY

FLOOD WATCHES FOR PUERTO RICO
Culebra
     flood watch
Mayaguez, Vicinity
     flood watch
North Central
     flood watch
Northeast
     flood watch
Northwest
     flood watch
San Juan, Vicinity
     flood watch
Vieques
     flood watch


FLOOD WATCH
San Juan, Vicinity (Puerto Rico)

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-002-302100-
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004
...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTH THROUGH EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX THROUGH TONIGHT...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO...FROM RINCON NORTHEAST AND EAST
THROUGH CEIBA...FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS OF
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND FOR THE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST COASTS
OF ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT SMALLER ISLANDS...FOR
TUESDAY...
MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE FRANCES WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE...THE LOCAL EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS...AND THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 6 FEET AND GREATER TONIGHT. SURF WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH EAST COASTS OF ST CROIX LATER TODAY AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THESE EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL RESULT
IN BREAKING WAVES OF 8 TO 15 FEET...CREATING INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.
AS FRANCES PASSES TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY...VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
NORTHEAST THEN NORTH SWELLS WILL THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
COASTLINES...CREATING VERY HIGH AND DANGEROUS SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET
AND POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 FEET...WITH AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING.
THEREFORE...LOCAL BEACH GOERS...SURFERS AND SWIMMERS IN ST CROIX ARE
URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER UNTIL THESE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE. PARENTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY VIGILANT IN KEEPING SMALL
CHILDREN AWAY FROM THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND SURGING SURF.
IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...DO NOT PANIC. THIS IS A
SHORT LIVED AND NARROW OUTWARD FLOWING CURRENT. SWIM PARALLEL TO
THE BEACH...AND YOU WILL EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE GRIP OF THE RIP
CURRENT.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATION ARE:
CHRISTIANSTED ST CROIX: 749 PM THIS EVENING
710 PM TUESDAY EVENING
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING...CAUSING INUNDATION OF COASTAL ROADS...LOW
LYING AREAS...AND BEACH EROSION. RESIDENTS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IN CASE COASTAL
FLOODING OCCURS OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. THIS SITUATION WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED. WHILE THERE IS STILL TIME...COASTAL RESIDENTS
SHOULD MAKE IMPORTANT PRELIMINARY PLANS TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE AND
PROPERTY.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS
SITUATION.
$$
SEELEY


APCEDI
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[Nimbus]

Not a good day for the beach.

[Dave C]

The latest disc. from the TPC is possible shear picked up by ships model in post 72hr. period. They bring winds down to cat 3 strength, still dangerous but better than cat 4.

[Nimbus]

Looks like it is right on track for now. That little bit of latitude gained last night is certainly a relief for the islanders. She is beginning to pick up speed which usually means the current steering will hold.

[msbee]

thanks for posting that statement
that still doesn't tell me whether I should board up or not