Frances Advisories

#2301 Postby **ericinmia** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:01 am

Here are the Probabilities posted for frances and sfla:

LOCATION------------A B C D E
MIAMI FL--------------X X X 3 3
W PALM BEACH FL---X X X 3 3
FT PIERCE FL---------X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE
C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

Josephine96 · #2302 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:03 am

It's early in the game.. but now that S. Fla has been posted..it may mean that the threat for the US is starting to increase

SFLgirl · #2303 Postby **SFLgirl** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:03 am

I'm not feeling very good.

#2304 Postby **msbee** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:05 am

yep!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#2305 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:05 am

The good news is that the hurricane watch issued last night for Culebra,Vieques,STThomas and St John was changed to a tropical storm watch meaning that we will not get hurricane force winds.Now at 11 Puerto Rico has been included in the tropical storm watch because although the eye of Frances will pass around 150 miles to our north the radio of the tropical storm force winds has expanded now to 140 miles away from the center and any deviation to the left may bring those sustained winds here.I think it was wise to issue here that watch because you never know if that eye bends a little south and we get much more winds.

Josephine96 · #2306 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:05 am

I don't think I am either.. I still don't buy this sudden N jerk that the NHC and others may be trying to hint at..

#2307 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:07 am

I hope that y'all are spared - getting TS force winds
at worst. You are so correct, one good wobble South, and BAM!

quickychick · #2308 Postby **quickychick** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:07 am

Now the NHC
has to remind folks of common sense -
"A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT" - DUH!!!!

I remember them saying this for at least the past couple of years in various advisories. People who don't follow storms or don't understand them get sucked into the Great and Powerful Black Line of Destruction (i.e. midline forecast path) and think they're safe three degrees over.

#2309 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:07 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES CONTINUES WESTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY THEIR GOVERNMENTS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...
ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...ST EUSTATIUS AND SABA. THE GOVERNMENT
OF FRANCE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST MARTIN AND ST
BARTHELEMY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR VIEQUES IS CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
BRITISH AND NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS INCLUDING ST THOMAS...ST
JOHN AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE ISLAND OF CULEBRA.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.7 WEST OR ABOUT 300
MILES... 480 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE FRANCES THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...19.3 N... 58.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

Anonymous · #2310 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:08 am

dhweather wrote:It's tragic that society has become so stupid, and
always looks for someone to blame. Now the NHC
has to remind folks of common sense -
"A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT" - DUH!!!!
This may result in a 50 mile wide swath of destruction.
Focus on what your local officials tell you!!!

I see your point bad thing is some people are from the Midwest or up north and dont even know what a hurricane is...

Unfortunately, The destruction may even be worse than 50 miles---Hurricane force winds extend out 85 miles--times that by two and account for the eye itself :eek:

From NHC

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

Josephine96 · #2311 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:09 am

Thank you as always :wink:

cape_escape · #2312 Postby **cape_escape** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:10 am

At least it looks like the GOM is out of it now...

#2313 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:10 am

Hey Barbara be safe over there and let us know of course if there is power how are things going there.

Josephine96 · #2314 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:11 am

We just have to wait and see.. :wink:

#2315 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:11 am

I think that we dodged the big bullet by not getting the worse of it.

Aimless · #2316 Postby **Aimless** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:11 am

Not stupid... just poorly informed. Few people spend hours on these boards and weather sites like we do. Most people glance at the local news and get a 60 second sound bite and think that is all there is to it. They are accoustomed to the local weather reports that are more or less accurate. (It is much easier to forecast the approach of a local storm using doppler radar than to predict something hundreds of miles away).

It is a good idea for offical advisories to remind people to stay alert and not assume it is set in concrete.

I had several friends who checked the local weather at 7am on Friday, 8/13 and didn't give it a second thought until I called them at noon....

Stupid...no.. just clueless.

#2317 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:12 am

I wouldn't rule out the GOM just yet. There are simply too many errors beyond 72 hours.

#2318 Postby **dhweather** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:13 am

Very true, being on the South side, regardless, isn't
as bad as it could be. Wave as she passes by!!

blizzard20 · #2319 Postby **blizzard20** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:14 am

Frances willl move toward florida east coast then turn Northward toward North Carolina coast then up the east coast.
it will be cat 5 when it reach the east coast.

watch what is off the africa coast which is likely to become a tropical storm soon and move westward.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRANCES...CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HERMINE LOCATED ABOUT 325
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IN
THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL
ORGAINIZED AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY.

#2320 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Mon Aug 30, 2004 10:15 am

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004

THE LAST RECON MISSION HAD 107 KT WINDS OUTBOUND IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT EYEWALL. THIS DOES NOT QUITE SUPPORT A MAXIMUM SURFACE
WIND OF 105 KT....BUT ON THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE
HURRICANE IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...SO THE INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 105 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...
AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS AS WELL AS THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THEREFORE
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FRANCES HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ABOUT
275/11. FRANCES IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT WILL
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOW MUCH
THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IS CRITICAL FOR THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF
THIS HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE GFDL MODEL
FORECAST TRACK HAS GENERALLY BEEN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN.

IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A
POINT AND FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE
ERRORS OF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.

Frances Advisories

Probabilities for frances and SFL posted

Tropical storm watch issued for Puerto Rico

HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 23

frances will move towards florida coast then northward

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