Earl Advisories

[Brent]

The reason is because the Keys are in the 5-day projected path cone.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Marathon and Key West have a 2% probability right now....NOT OUT OF THE WOODS BY NO MEANS!

[Air Force Met]

I really think it is a race. He is moving fast right now and may beat that trough to Texas. However, right now my bet is b/w Morgan City, LA and Gulfport.

Again, its a race. He stands better than even odds right now that he gets to the central GOM before the trough does.

[dhweather]

It's way too early to guess if Earl will stay south, or recurve. Tropical systems, while being powerful entities, are easily influenced by other systems, and that's just to far out to say right now.

[Scott_inVA]

AS I did with Charley..... the early call on EARL is a track trhru the Yucatan -- perhaps JUST clipping the NE corner of it -- then into the Gulf ...slowing down then turning NW as the next trough comes in .... this next trough will NOT be as deep as the last one of course but should be sufficent to allow a turn to the WNW Or NW and thus miss the Yucatan... IF he slow then a turn to the Upper TX or LA Gulf coast seems a good bet.... otherwise lower TX.

Valid first call IMO David.
Suggest folks watch up by Hudson Bay this week...decent trof will swing down. Little worried if a trof along the southern stream hooks up with this. I'd think if Earl has a fair north/nw component at that time, he'll swing up towards W LA.

Either way, I hope TPC's forecast shuts up the media who are honking Earl hits W FL. Could happen, doubt it but being in media I'm hyper-sensitive to clueless TV talking heads freaking out people.

Scott

[Dean4Storms]

Won't make TX., this will be a LA to FLPH landfall.

[Anonymous]

Earl will miss this trough and continue west or west-northwest into Mexico IMHO the USA should watch it--but it looks a lot better IMHO

[Anonymous]

lt depends on exactly where it enters the West Caribbean. If near Jamaica, then it could pull north towards AL/MS. If well south of Jamaica, then better odds it will move toward TX. Seems to be moving very fast right now. If it does not slow much in the next 4 days it could continue on a far southerly track right through Yucatan, IMH.


EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 24.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

[rbaker]

ukmet and nogaps have panhandle written on it, gfdl which picks up big storms quite well show it going into yucatan, and then still west

[washington]

Just one of the local NWS Office in northern FL
eyes will be on t. s. earl as it is projected to track wnwwd along
the srn periphery of the subtropical ridge into the nw carribean
late in the week ... a track similar to hurricane charley.
thereafter ... a weakness in the ridge w/ digging trough over the
cntrl conus may steer earl toward the gulf coast. stay tuned.

[HURAKAN]

It may be elongated, but I think that's normal with fast-moving tropical systems. After all, the system looks much better organizated than what it did 24 hours ago, convection is abundant and it's holding itself pretty well. I think when this system slows down it will really explode like Charley did.

[x-y-no]

That's interesting ... the water west of Florida is still quite warm despite Charley just having come through there.

[Derek Ortt]

starting to learn AGAINST any us landfall from this

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl052004forecast.html

no UL to the west of this one to cause it to slow and move WNW

[wx247]

That's interesting ... the water west of Florida is still quite warm despite Charley just having come through there.

I assume that is due to its relatively quick forward motion. Had it have hung around in that region very long it would have probably had upwelled some of the cooler water.

[GrimReaper]

From your forecast to God's ears, Derek, I've had enough!!!

[paulvogel]

It bears watching, but as we can see, anything can happen.
My prediction is


Close your eyes, cross your fingers, prepare for the worst, and hope for the best!

[Guest]

starting to learn AGAINST any us landfall from this

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl052004forecast.html

no UL to the west of this one to cause it to slow and move WNW

Eh. the scenerio hasnt even played out yet. are you putting too much stock in models?

if so... well, There's *likely* going to be a trough developing south from the plains into the mississippi river valley around day 7 by european and Gfs.

don't discount earl.

[paulvogel]

The upwelling is there, but very thin and short, due to the fast motion and the fact Charley was cat3 and 4 less then 4 hrs!

[paulvogel]

the 5pm or 11pm will have venice, ft myers and tampa at 2%

I no longer call my mom to tell her thise things that far out. She has learned to find it out for herself.
She lives in Venice fl

[vbhoutex]

Thought it is way too early to make any determinations, as the track of Earl is currently unfolding he is continuing to stay to the left(south) of the previously progged track which could bring him further West later. Definitely needs to be watched closely.