Alex Advisories

The Dark Knight · #241 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:09 pm

hmmmmm......

Stormchaser16 · #242 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:11 pm

Folks am i reading this right?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT1.shtml?

What does that 8th group mean?

soonertwister · #243 Postby **soonertwister** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:12 pm

Stormchaser16 wrote:If that happens, i would immediately expect an LLC to form underneath the convection, is that what you are eluding to?

Yes. I think there are two separate centers, and the northern one has become a satellite of the main LLCC.

ColdFront77 · #244 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:12 pm

The convection/the possible redeveloping low is certainly not moving northward like the vorticies and the center the NHC has been indicating.

Aquawind · #245 Postby **Aquawind** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:13 pm

Well the extensive twisting vorts has about moved on shore and there is less of that remaining over the waters soo..yes it maybe consolidating into in LLC..time will tell...there were a number of vorts exiting the NE quad and turning inland earlier..maybe that is over..

The Dark Knight · #246 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:15 pm

Good post......

Stormswirl · #247 Postby **Stormswirl** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:16 pm

Perhaps those pressure drops are not as dramatic as they appear. I think the -0.07 in. pressure drop at 3:50 p.m. might actually be a reflection of the previous three hour changes. At 3:50 p.m. the pressure indicates 29.81 inches, while at 12:50 p.m it indicates 29.88 inches. The same pattern exists throughout the buoy data. Anyone know for sure? I'm just pattern recognition guessing.

Anonymous · #248 Postby **Anonymous** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:16 pm

IT is most definately looking good on IR, so nice and round now.

Stormchaser16 · #249 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:20 pm

I have not seen anymore exposed vorts come out throughout the last few hours now, making me think it may be trying to get one main LLC firing underneath that convection

Website · #250 Postby **Brent** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:20 pm

Cool.

#251 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:20 pm

He's starting to look pretty good. Now if the center would form in the main area of convection...we might have something... :grrr:

Stormchaser16 · #252 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:23 pm

LAwxrgal....... there are signs that the early stages of that occuring are indeed underway.....

1- no new vortices exposed from the system recently
2- Vortices are now approaching the coast and weakening
3-symmetrical appearance
4- Flareup
5- Good outflow/inflow

These things combined tell me there is something to watch out for here

Opal storm · #253 Postby **Opal storm** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:25 pm

I doubt this will become a hurricane,but I do think it will strengthen.

Nimbus · #254 Postby **Nimbus** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:27 pm

I am waiting to see if the ridge builds a little now that it is over Alex. If that happens you should start to see a bow in the frontal boundary as the ridge stalls the aproaching trough. This usually only occurs with strong storms, but it could delay Alex's northeastern motion and slow the forecast.

Rainband · #255 Postby **Rainband** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:28 pm

I agree

50MPH.... 60 at best!! :wink:

The Dark Knight · #256 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:34 pm

Really..???? That's interesting....

Aquawind · #257 Postby **Aquawind** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:35 pm

Impressive Dvorak loop..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

lilbump3000 · #258 Postby **lilbump3000** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:37 pm

I wont be surprised if dvorak is at 2.5 or possibly 3.0 by there next run.

Rainband · #259 Postby **Rainband** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:43 pm

After seeing that. I agree. If the center is under all that!! :eek:

The Dark Knight · #260 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:50 pm

Your right......

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