Frances Advisories

[PurdueWx80]

There is dry air all around Frances. It is ridiculous to say that it couldn't be dry air. Precipitable water vapor images show values as low as 1.25" immediately adjacent to the storm. Collapsing thunderstorms may have been able to transport dry air downwards, which is why we are probably seeing the clear spots around the actual center. I don't think this will destory Frances, she should mix enough water vapor back into the atmosphere to get rid of this.

[Anonymous]

Im sure it is an eyewall replacement because recon reported concentric eyewalls, so I wouldn't be surprised if it has a concentric eyewall. You almost never you see hurricanes this well established (beautiful outflow) produce random dry spots without shear or dry air (which I think neither are affecting the storm). Only thing that explains it is a ERC.

[AL Chili Pepper]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

There is some dry air to the west, but not enough to do serious damage in the long run, I don't think. The outflow is still there, but the western semicircle sure seems depleted right now.

[Burn1]

Sucking in a little dry air.....Not uncommon in combination with Eye Wall replacement....Temporary to say the least

[THead]

Wow, thanks for all the replies/comments. I hope everyone stays safe thru Frances, wherever the beast lands.

[Innotech]

ok after a careful look at satellite again Im quite sure its an ERC and the huge hole is in fact a gigantic eye about to rear its head. This storm is going to be monstrous.

[Rainband]

I don't like that forecast too close for me

[dixiebreeze]

I'm afraid that graphic looks very plausible.

[Guest]

it is certainly becoming more Isabel like. I do think it is dry air, however I think a stadium eye will eventually form.

[Derek Ortt]

thre's no dry air, an EWRC temporarily messes up the structure

[LowMug]

I got mugged earlier for saying the eye was going to clear out and an enormous eye become the result of it...all kinds of dry air speculation

Even Derek stated in his most recent forecast that an ERC had just occurred...

Looks like the LowMug got mugged for no reason...

[wxman57]

That looks pretty close to where we have it making landfall now - south of where the NHC is putting it to the coast. That continued 12-13kt movement is indicating farther south. Still, a lot of uncertainty. I'm not sure what's been affecting the intensity today - maybe a bit of shear to the SW or some dry air. I would have thought it would be more intense by now, but I guess 110kts isn't too shabby.

[PurdueWx80]

If you want to get technical, an eye w/o clouds has VERY dry air within it. Nonetheless, there is no other way to explain a sudden dissappearance of ALL clouds in a spot well away from the eye, other than...dry air. Collapsing thunderstorms = subsidence = drying and warming of air. It's probably too difficult to tell if it was entrained from outside the storm, but it is indeed possible, even if it was only in one particular layer (under the cirrus outflow canopy perhaps).

[rbaker]

Looking at latest loops from this afternoon and this evening, frances still getting good outflow, but more compacted in appearance, almost andrew type looking, except eye not as pronounced. Also, looks to me that she is speeding up a tad also.

[Hyperstorm]

2 reasons for that:

1) At night, systems do become more concentrated. During the day, they expand.

2) She's getting ready to explode...

[wxman57]

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML

Just click on the Goes-East Visible loop.

[Guest]

amazing

[SouthernWx]

After deepening to 945 mb this afternoon, hurricane Frances appears to be undergoing an eyewall replacement this evening. While a temporary weakening may occur, all indications are this hurricane will become a large and extremely dangerous category four hurricane during the next 24-36 hours.

I expect Frances to continue west and then turn west-northwest....taking the hurricane toward the Turks and Caicos Islands by late Wednesday and through the Bahamas chain Thursday and Friday as an extremely dangerous hurricane. By late Friday I forecast Frances to be approaching the southeast Florida coastline as a borderline category 4/5 hurricane (sustained winds of 150-155 mph...central pressure between 920-930 mb). With the high oceanic heat content in the waters offshore southeastern Florida and near the Bahamas (sst's of 86-89°), a category 5 landfalling hurricane both in the Bahamas and southeast Florida isn't out of the question.
At this time I'm forecasting U.S. landfall near West Palm Beach....HOWEVER, this is expected to be a large hurricane with hurricane force winds covering an area 125-150 miles in width, so most of the Florida east coast will experience very strong winds. On my projected path, hurricane conditions will also extend well inland....as the large hurricane slowly weakens as it recurves over the peninsula into southern Georgia. I strongly urge all residents of the Florida peninsula (including the Florida Keys)....Georgia....and South Carolina to closely monitor this very dangerous hurricane, and heed all watches, warnings and preparation advice issued from the National Hurricane Center, as well as state and local Emergency Management agencies.

Here is my evening forecast of Frances track and intensity:
http://community-2.webtv.net/vortex4000/Forecasts

[Brent]

Good forecast. Scary, but I agree.

[Brent]

WOW... your going to scare the you-know-what out of Florida.