Frances Advisories

[ncweatherwizard]

There's some stipulations tonight that really make me think that I might be too far south by a touch, but I'd rather address this tomorrow, if it persists.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweat ... ances.html

115kts in 120 hours.

[JMGNole]

I did for me, and I'm in Tallahassee. This is looking like a frightening weekend for the Sunshine State.

[caneman]

Scary stuff and is along the lines I'm thinking. I fear this might be a historic event. Seems to me that every system that has got close to shore has all the sudden blown up. Much different than previous systems over the past couple years that have actually weakend. God help us if this hits the Gulf Stream at 135+.

[Harbormaster]

I think that they are already quite scared and legitimately so!!! I was in Tampa attending a funeral a couple of days before Charley threatened and retreated to Olrando in search of "safe haven" - a tree fell within four feet of my rental car with no "optional insurance"

It made sense at the time to do make the trip because if Charley landfalled in the TB area, it would have been a catastrophe on a broader scale than in the Charlotte Harbor area!

Still think that I made the smart and right move even though my relatives who didn't leave Tampa said that there was nothing more than a drizzle. I would do the same thing again if history repeated itself - better to move inland than face even the remote chance of a direct landfall right along the coast or in a surge prone area...

[paulvogel]

Ive noticed something...... The forecasters are doing a good job, but has anyone noticed{Or has discussed} that the carolina guys forecast landfall north of the Florida folks???


Just wondering.
Paul

[Canehater]

JMG, scaring you? I am in S Fla, talk about scared! By the way, DAKNOLE here!

[Derek Ortt]

I'd love to be wrong with this forecast

[Vortex]

This is a short-term model through H-84 and is still updating. The point here is not so much the location but the ridge to the north is stronger....I expect this to be the trend with other models as we go forward...In addition don't be surprised if the NHC track shifts furthur south tommorrow in which I fully expect given some of the late evening data....


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[Ripopgodazippa]

WTNT31 KNHC 310243
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...MAHJOR HURRICANE FRANCES PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES... 245 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...19.7 N... 61.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[dhweather]

I won't be in shock if they move the track west.

[Dean4Storms]

I can certainly agree with you on that one Derek and I wouldn't be surprised to see you have to adjust it further southward toward yourself. I still think this system stands a chance of getting into the eastern GOM if it keeps up it's current pace and trajectory. As you know these big storms don't make radical direction changes unless a trough picks it up and there is just nothing there.

[Huckster]

Ive noticed something...... The forecasters are doing a good job, but has anyone noticed{Or has discussed} that the carolina guys forecast landfall north of the Florida folks???


Just wondering.
Paul

I have noticed the same thing. There are always people trying to pull a storm more in their direction. I might incur some wrath and flaming by saying that, but that's ok. Everyone knows it's true. I am not accusing everyone of doing this, but ncweather has been consistently forecasting this thing much farther east than the model consensus (what exists of one, not too bad right now really, IMO). I am not going to lump his forecast in with possible wishcasts, because I really don't know his reasoning. I also don't know how you can consistently keep going against the grain, especially when the grain seems correct.

I am convinced, though, that some people get their incense and crystals and spell books out everytime a hurricane comes around. As I read somewhere else earlier, I think on wxrisk's site, "up the east coast" is just more exciting. Though up the Florida peninsula would be quite a trip also, a bad one for those people.

[x-y-no]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 310244
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
0300Z TUE AUG 31 2004

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 61.4W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 170SE 170SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 61.4W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 60.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.1N 63.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.9N 66.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.8N 69.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.0N 71.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.7N 75.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 28.0N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 61.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[Ripopgodazippa]

WTNT31 KNHC 310301 CCA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

...CORRECTED FOR... REVISED TROPICAL STORM WATCH...

...MAJOR HURRICANE FRANCES PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES... 245 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE OUTER BANDS OF FRANCES WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THESE
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...19.7 N... 61.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

Inland near Orlando at 120 hours...

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 25

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 30, 2004

the last report from a NOAA recon aircraft indicated the pressure
had decreased to 945 mb. However...since that time...the satellite
signature has changed little overall. Therefore...the intensity
will remain at 110 kt.

Frances remains on track and the motion is now 280/12. A deep-layer
subtropical ridge is expected to strengthen westward to the north
of Frances over the next several days as Gaston and Hermine exit
the picture. Beyond 72 hours...the NHC models are in better
agreement that they have been in previous days...but there is still
enough model divergence to warrant concern for all of Florida and
the Bahamas. The GFDL...NOGAPS...and to a lesser degree....the
GFS...models Bend the track Frances slightly more northwestward
after 72 hours toward northeast Florida and Georgia. The UKMET...
Canadian...ECMWF...and the latest ETA model run keep Frances on a
more westward track toward South Florida. Given the long range
uncertainty in the evolution of the trough-ridge pattern forecast
to develop over the central and eastern U.S...the official forecast
track remains close to the previous track and near the NHC model
consensus. However...with such a large trough forcast to develop
over the central U.S...it would not surprise me if subsequent model
runs do not begin trending a little more westward. The new 00z
model runs should be interesting.

The SHIPS intensity model brings Frances up to 130 kt in 48 hours...
which seems quite reasonable. However...timing inner-core
fluctuations like we have seen the past day or so is impossible...
so only slow steady intensification is indicated.

Forecaster Stewart

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 31/0300z 19.7n 61.4w 110 kt
12hr VT 31/1200z 20.1n 63.4w 115 kt
24hr VT 01/0000z 20.9n 66.3w 115 kt
36hr VT 01/1200z 21.8n 69.1w 120 kt
48hr VT 02/0000z 23.0n 71.9w 120 kt
72hr VT 03/0000z 24.7n 75.3w 120 kt
96hr VT 04/0000z 26.5n 78.0w 120 kt
120hr VT 05/0000z 28.0n 81.0w 100 kt...inland

[soonertwister]

Hello Miami and the Keys.

[Matthew5]

If this doe's what I think it will do. This is going to make Charley looks like a tropical storm!

[Huckster]

Frances might be on its way to becoming an annular hurricane. I will be honest, I don't exactly remember what the causes of that are, but those are the storms with large, stable eyes, and they tend to be quite strong. There's a link somewhere with a paper about these kinda 'canes...Isabel and Alex for example. If someone has that link, maybe they can post it.

[ColinD]

"However...with such a large trough forcast to develop
over the central U.S...it would not surprise me if subsequent model
runs do not begin trending a little more westward. The new 00z
model runs should be interesting. "

[btsgmdad]

This is definitely not promising news.