Frances Advisories

[mobilebay]

The ETA? You know...way back in the day I actually paid attention to what the ETA said...that was of course before much better tropical and global models made an appearance.

Ordinarly the ETA would not have gotton this kind of rise out of the board but with the NHC just saying this very thing is possible it makes very interesting.

[Air Force Met]

That looks pretty close to where we have it making landfall now - south of where the NHC is putting it to the coast. That continued 12-13kt movement is indicating farther south. Still, a lot of uncertainty. I'm not sure what's been affecting the intensity today - maybe a bit of shear to the SW or some dry air. I would have thought it would be more intense by now, but I guess 110kts isn't too shabby.

It's not been going through classic EWRCs...theres been a series of them and one eyewall hasn't developed and stayed. So...I don't think it is shear or dry air...I think it is internal with the eyewall. The latest IR shows that this seems to be being remedied as we speak. The large one on the outside should be predominate by morning.

[Air Force Met]

The ETA? You know...way back in the day I actually paid attention to what the ETA said...that was of course before much better tropical and global models made an appearance.

Ordinarly the ETA would not have gotton this kind of rise out of the board but with the NHC just saying this very thing is possible it makes very interesting.

Yeah...I know...I was surprised they did. I mean...you got a gazillion models...and you mention the ETA? I was a little surprised.

[anjou]

Just a thought.. a very severe, wide hurricane coming in at southeastish florida and then plowing northward, potentially along the coast... given the margin of error... presents a rather nasty evacuation scenario... where and when do emergency officials tell people to go, if the places they'll be evacuating to are a decent bet to be in the path of the still-very-bad-as-it-travels-north storm.

[ncweatherwizard]

Look, I don't do that stuff, okay...enough said. I have had solid but just incorrect (depending on what occurs) forecast reasoning. It happens. By coincidence, it happened to be a southeast coast situation. I do not appreciate any accusation of so-called "-removed-"--guys s*** happens.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if I panned out here though?...even though I would never shove it in anyone's face after all this?

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'm starting to thinking after watching satellite that it may even go a little further South of that forecast...maybe even all the way down to Miami...this is a new thought for me. I have to do more analysis. The ridge appears to be building and appears to be much stronger than I thought it would be and it may steer this system clear to the Gulf. Again, I have to look at everything more...I have previously stuck to the notion of a FL/GA landfall.

[Stormcenter]

I'm starting to thinking after watching satellite that it may even go a little further South of that forecast...maybe even all the way down to Miami...this is a new thought for me. I have to do more analysis. The ridge appears to be building and appears to be much stronger than I thought it would be and it may steer this system clear to the Gulf. Again, I have to look at everything more...I have previously stuck to the notion of a FL/GA landfall.

I really feel bad for the people in Florida but I always thought this would be a Florida event again if it didn't turn out to sea.
I still hope I'm wrong.

[weatherlover427]

This is NOT what central FL needs right now! I'm gonna have to write an e mail to my family there and make sure they know about this...

[Air Force Met]

Look, I don't do that stuff, okay...enough said. I have had solid but just incorrect (depending on what occurs) forecast reasoning. It happens. By coincidence, it happened to be a southeast coast situation. I do not appreciate any accusation of so-called "-removed-"--guys s*** happens.

Wouldn't it be hilarious if I panned out here though?...even though I would never shove it in anyone's face after all this?

Just joking. I originally targetted SC...said b/w Titusville and SC/GA border. Now...somewhere around titusville...but the way the coast is shaped...100 miles makes a diff between Miami and Savannah if its moving NNW at day 4 and 5...which it could do.

It's a guessing game for sure.

[btsgmdad]

Still a crapshoot for sure!

[calidoug]

I suspect that there was an earlier period (before) the W turn, when Frances had become annular. You'll recall the mesovortices visible in the large eye, and the relatively warmer CDO tops that annular canes typically exhibit.

When Frances bumped into the ridge and got turned and accelerated westward, that structure collapsed, and we've seen a somewhat disorganized pinhole eye for the last day or two.

Now, we see a large eye forming, and the CDO looks a bit smaller and warmer... don't know for sure yet, but I wonder if this thing might be transitioning into an annular state again...

Recall that annular canes can be very strong indeed-- much more so than their large eye and warmish cloud tops might otherwise suggest.

See this paper: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/IN-H ... opical.htm

And note the images of an earlier cane transitioning to annular state here: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/IN-H ... gure06.gif

Remind you of anything?

Doug

[c5Camille]

it very well could be...

[Matthew5]

I think so.

[calidoug]

We'll know more when the new visible pics come in tomorrow...

[btsgmdad]

Sure looks that way.

[NFLnut]

May I ask .. what is an "annular" hurricane? Is that a good or bad thing?

[Sanibel]

I've been taking heat on another board over this. Frances just pulled into warm waters with favorable surroundings. I think people are behind in realizing she is going "donut" with that wide eye. A classic buzzsaw is probably forming threatening category 5. I know Frances' warm-top personality has been slow to change - but I think we may be seeing a bad turn taking shape in a bad place prior to increasing forward speed...

[opera ghost]

It's a pretty rare wide eye hurricane, sort of a donut shape- they are usually pretty powerful. Isabel transitioned to an Annular hurricane last year and hit category 5... there's some suspicion that Francis will do the same.

Fortunetly with ISABEL there was time for the Cat5 to wind back down and she made landfall as a Cat2. With FRANCIS... there's probably not enough space between her and land to naturally wind down a lot.

There are a couple of other posts about the eye with links- look around a bit

[TLHR]

AAARRRRGGGHHHH!!!!

GFS now says Wilmington, NC.

I'm off to bed.
Brain hurts....

[btsgmdad]

Mine too.