Frances Advisories
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Stratosphere747
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dixiebreeze
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Max Mayfield personally preparing for Frances/mets won't..
know landfall area until the last minute. Great story -- a MUST READ:
Posted on Mon, Aug. 30, 2004
Hurricane Frances may hit Florida
BY KEN KAYE
Knight Ridder Newspapers
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. - (KRT) - A formidable Hurricane Frances was projected to strike the Central Florida coast on Saturday, possibly with Category 4 strength, but South Florida still could be the main target, hurricane forecasters said Monday.
"The wise thing would be to treat this as a major hurricane capable of doing major damage and causing loss of life," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters are unsure whether a pressure ridge north of Frances will weaken, allowing it to turn more to the north, or remain strong, keeping it on a collision course with Central or South Florida.
As long as Frances is south of South Florida, it could aim in this direction, Mayfield said. He begged residents not to focus on the forecast track, or "that skinny black line," because it could be in error by hundreds of miles. Rather, they should assume that if the storm is near their vicinity, they could be hit, he said.
"Start thinking about what you would do if the hurricane continued coming to your community," said Mayfield, who said he personally has bought supplies and started preparing his home. "If you have a hurricane plan, you're in good shape. If you don't, the good news is you still have time."
If the storm were to aim directly at South Florida, residents could start feeling winds from the outer bands by Thursday, with landfall as early as Saturday morning.
Late on Monday, Frances was in the eastern Caribbean, about 135 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, or about 1,200 miles from Miami, moving west at almost 14 mph with sustained winds of 125 mph.
Because of wind shear, the system weakened from what was once a Category 4 with 135-mph winds to a Category 3. However, forecasters expect it to quickly regain strength and build to 140 mph or greater, which would make it capable of vast destruction.
Tropical storm warnings have been posted for several of the northern Leeward Islands, as well as Puerto Rico. Frances is expected to pass just north of that Caribbean region.
Emergency managers in Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties went on high alert Monday, in the event hurricane warnings need to be posted and evacuations ordered. That likely would happen early on Thursday.
"Every resident in South Florida needs to take preparedness seriously," said Broward County Emergency Manager Tony Carper. "It looks like we'll have several tense days."
Bill O'Brien, Palm Beach County director of emergency management, added, "We are concerned, as the forecast path takes it close to us. Each advisory that comes in will be more accurate than the last one."
Palm Beach County School District administrators said no decision on closing schools would be made until the storm is 24 to 48 hours away.
If it holds to its forecast path, Frances would move through the central Bahamas and over the west end of Grand Bahama Island on Friday, before aiming for an area between Fort Pierce and Melbourne. But that path could easily shift over the next three or four days.
Officials stress the tough lesson of Hurricane Charley earlier this month: Don't put too much trust into the future track. Although that track aimed at Tampa, the storm turned unexpectedly and slammed into Punta Gorda, catching thousands of residents off guard.
Forecast tracks are based in large part on the calculations of several computer models. On Monday, some of those models still had Frances either coming right at South Florida or precariously close.
Mayfield asked that residents buy supplies now and said those in evacuation zones should know where they will go if the storm approaches.
One of his most emphatic pleas: If you evacuate, travel the shortest distance possible to find shelter, preferably inside your county. By doing so, residents can avoid creating traffic jams and fleeing into the path of the storm, as many Southwest Florida residents did with Hurricane Charley.
Forecasters said even if Frances remains offshore, South Florida could see heavy rain, winds and large waves from the storm's outer bands, which extend 140 miles from its center.
"It depends on how close it gets," said meteorologist Jim Lushine, of the National Weather Service in Miami. "If it were to stay 200 miles offshore, we probably wouldn't see anything. But if it gets within 100 miles or less, we'd have to deal with the outlying effects."
Lushine said Frances is reminiscent of Hurricane Floyd, which aimed at South Florida as a Category 4 system in September 1999 but made a last minute turn toward North Carolina.
The difference, he said, is Floyd had distinct steering currents, allowing forecasters to confidently anticipate that turn. He said the forces influencing Frances are iffier.
"I think it's going to be the last minute, the last day before, we know for sure it's going to take that turn to the north," he said. "It doesn't take much to push it one way or the other."
Knight Ridder staff writers Maya Bell, Buddy Nevins, Diane Lade, Marc Freeman and Joshua Hafenbrack contributed to this report.
---
© 2004 South Florida Sun-Sentinel.
Posted on Mon, Aug. 30, 2004
Hurricane Frances may hit Florida
BY KEN KAYE
Knight Ridder Newspapers
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. - (KRT) - A formidable Hurricane Frances was projected to strike the Central Florida coast on Saturday, possibly with Category 4 strength, but South Florida still could be the main target, hurricane forecasters said Monday.
"The wise thing would be to treat this as a major hurricane capable of doing major damage and causing loss of life," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters are unsure whether a pressure ridge north of Frances will weaken, allowing it to turn more to the north, or remain strong, keeping it on a collision course with Central or South Florida.
As long as Frances is south of South Florida, it could aim in this direction, Mayfield said. He begged residents not to focus on the forecast track, or "that skinny black line," because it could be in error by hundreds of miles. Rather, they should assume that if the storm is near their vicinity, they could be hit, he said.
"Start thinking about what you would do if the hurricane continued coming to your community," said Mayfield, who said he personally has bought supplies and started preparing his home. "If you have a hurricane plan, you're in good shape. If you don't, the good news is you still have time."
If the storm were to aim directly at South Florida, residents could start feeling winds from the outer bands by Thursday, with landfall as early as Saturday morning.
Late on Monday, Frances was in the eastern Caribbean, about 135 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands, or about 1,200 miles from Miami, moving west at almost 14 mph with sustained winds of 125 mph.
Because of wind shear, the system weakened from what was once a Category 4 with 135-mph winds to a Category 3. However, forecasters expect it to quickly regain strength and build to 140 mph or greater, which would make it capable of vast destruction.
Tropical storm warnings have been posted for several of the northern Leeward Islands, as well as Puerto Rico. Frances is expected to pass just north of that Caribbean region.
Emergency managers in Monroe, Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties went on high alert Monday, in the event hurricane warnings need to be posted and evacuations ordered. That likely would happen early on Thursday.
"Every resident in South Florida needs to take preparedness seriously," said Broward County Emergency Manager Tony Carper. "It looks like we'll have several tense days."
Bill O'Brien, Palm Beach County director of emergency management, added, "We are concerned, as the forecast path takes it close to us. Each advisory that comes in will be more accurate than the last one."
Palm Beach County School District administrators said no decision on closing schools would be made until the storm is 24 to 48 hours away.
If it holds to its forecast path, Frances would move through the central Bahamas and over the west end of Grand Bahama Island on Friday, before aiming for an area between Fort Pierce and Melbourne. But that path could easily shift over the next three or four days.
Officials stress the tough lesson of Hurricane Charley earlier this month: Don't put too much trust into the future track. Although that track aimed at Tampa, the storm turned unexpectedly and slammed into Punta Gorda, catching thousands of residents off guard.
Forecast tracks are based in large part on the calculations of several computer models. On Monday, some of those models still had Frances either coming right at South Florida or precariously close.
Mayfield asked that residents buy supplies now and said those in evacuation zones should know where they will go if the storm approaches.
One of his most emphatic pleas: If you evacuate, travel the shortest distance possible to find shelter, preferably inside your county. By doing so, residents can avoid creating traffic jams and fleeing into the path of the storm, as many Southwest Florida residents did with Hurricane Charley.
Forecasters said even if Frances remains offshore, South Florida could see heavy rain, winds and large waves from the storm's outer bands, which extend 140 miles from its center.
"It depends on how close it gets," said meteorologist Jim Lushine, of the National Weather Service in Miami. "If it were to stay 200 miles offshore, we probably wouldn't see anything. But if it gets within 100 miles or less, we'd have to deal with the outlying effects."
Lushine said Frances is reminiscent of Hurricane Floyd, which aimed at South Florida as a Category 4 system in September 1999 but made a last minute turn toward North Carolina.
The difference, he said, is Floyd had distinct steering currents, allowing forecasters to confidently anticipate that turn. He said the forces influencing Frances are iffier.
"I think it's going to be the last minute, the last day before, we know for sure it's going to take that turn to the north," he said. "It doesn't take much to push it one way or the other."
Knight Ridder staff writers Maya Bell, Buddy Nevins, Diane Lade, Marc Freeman and Joshua Hafenbrack contributed to this report.
---
© 2004 South Florida Sun-Sentinel.
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Sean in New Orleans
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yankeelmbb
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Sanibel, "classic" is actually not annular
Annular "doughnut" storms are much more rare. The "buzzsaw" description is used often, not just with annular canes.
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NFLnut, see the paper linked in my first post--
An annular hurricane tends to be much more stable-- they don't lose intensity as fast as 'normal' hurricanes, and as a consequence are more often underforecasted by the models...
All this and more is talked about in that paper.
Also, google is your friend: try searching "annular hurricane"
Doug
All this and more is talked about in that paper.
Also, google is your friend: try searching "annular hurricane"
Doug
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dixiebreeze
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dixiebreeze
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2 a.m. Adv. for Cat. 3 Frances.....
Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 25a
Statement as of 2:00 am AST on August 31, 2004
..Category three Hurricane Frances passing north of the Leeward
Islands...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following Leeward
Islands...Antigua...Barbuda...St maarten...Anguilla...Nevis...St.
Kitts...St. Eustatius...Saba...Guadeloupe...and also for Puerto
Rico...Culebra...Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands of St.
Thomas...St. John and surrounding islands...and for the British
Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for St. Martin...
St. Barthelemy...and St. Croix...and for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic from Manzanillo Bay eastward to Cabo engano.
A tropical storm watch will likely be issued early Tuesday morning
for portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
At 2 am AST...0600z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 19.8 north...longitude 62.1 west or about 140
miles... 225 km...north-northeast of St. Martin in the northern
Leeward Islands.
Frances is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track...the core of the hurricane will pass to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands late tonight and early Tuesday.
However...the outer bands of Frances will begin affecting these
islands today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity could occur during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is 951 mb...28.08 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...locally higher...are likely over
portions of the warning area in association with Frances.
Repeating the 2 am AST position...19.8 N... 62.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...125 mph. Minimum central pressure... 951 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Beven
Statement as of 2:00 am AST on August 31, 2004
..Category three Hurricane Frances passing north of the Leeward
Islands...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following Leeward
Islands...Antigua...Barbuda...St maarten...Anguilla...Nevis...St.
Kitts...St. Eustatius...Saba...Guadeloupe...and also for Puerto
Rico...Culebra...Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands of St.
Thomas...St. John and surrounding islands...and for the British
Virgin Islands.
A tropical storm watch remains in effect for St. Martin...
St. Barthelemy...and St. Croix...and for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic from Manzanillo Bay eastward to Cabo engano.
A tropical storm watch will likely be issued early Tuesday morning
for portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands.
At 2 am AST...0600z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 19.8 north...longitude 62.1 west or about 140
miles... 225 km...north-northeast of St. Martin in the northern
Leeward Islands.
Frances is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track...the core of the hurricane will pass to the north of
the northern Leeward Islands late tonight and early Tuesday.
However...the outer bands of Frances will begin affecting these
islands today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph...205 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity could occur during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
hurricane hunter aircraft is 951 mb...28.08 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...locally higher...are likely over
portions of the warning area in association with Frances.
Repeating the 2 am AST position...19.8 N... 62.1 W. Movement
toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...125 mph. Minimum central pressure... 951 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am AST.
Forecaster Beven
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dixiebreeze
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ColdFront77
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dixiebreeze
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Some introduction to the board. Well all hurricanes are different and this one proves it. 2am shows 6mb jump in pressure. Torque wobble was not true torque wobble. It was incidental to an eyewall replacement. That is a first in this situation for sure. Humbling that the critics on the other board were right.
Something isn't right about this. I still expect an intensification to follow - even if it is at Frances' speed. The danger is that the storm may be saving its worst for preshore since it hasn't shot its highest intensity yet...
This conforms to a steady big roller...
Something isn't right about this. I still expect an intensification to follow - even if it is at Frances' speed. The danger is that the storm may be saving its worst for preshore since it hasn't shot its highest intensity yet...
This conforms to a steady big roller...
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