Charley Advisories

[Brent]

[Brent]

It was Isidore and Lili in 2002. Bad analogy and here's why:

1. That was in Late September and Early October when the water is cooler

2. Isidore(first one) took up the entire Gulf after it hit the Yucatan.

Now compare that to now:

1. This is Mid-August, the water temps are in the upper 80s and low 90s

2. Bonnie is VERY compact

Shouldn't have much impact at all.

[Anonymous]

Thanks Brent. Your points make sense to me. Bonnie's smaller and the Gulf is hotter. Looks like we could be in for a big powerful system with Charles then.

[Josephine96]

If it explodes in the Gulf.. then somebody could have a major storm at their doorstep in a few days..

Lets wait and see what happens 1st

[washington]

Expect charley to be at least 100 in the gulf if it goes directly in the centeral part of the gulf that is where you have very warm sst warm loops.
So every one from LA to the big bend of FL should watch this system.

[Weatherboy1]

As a fellow SE Floridian, here's my thinking on the system (from another thread):

Well, overnight not much has changed -- for us South Floridians, it looks like we'll get passed by to the west. That would be consistent with the pattern of the past few years, the expected synoptic set up, etc. Unfortunately, that pattern has also meant that the poor folks in the NE Gulf keep getting pounded by TSs and cane's (albeit, weak ones, thankfully) -- and it looks like this will be no different.

There are two minor wrinkles out there, however:

1) The possibility the models are underestimating the approaching trough. In any other season, I'd say this would NOT happen. But look at that freakin' trough we had a week and a half ago. An NHC discussion referred to it as "ridiculous" the other day, and 4 to 5 standard deviations away from the norm for August. That, to me, raises the slight possibility that this trough will exceed expectations.

2) The "Irene" scenario. I've been watching the tropical model runs over the past 24 hours, and they have gradually shifted E in the latter part of the forecast period. But they still have Charley well west of the SW FL coast. This is similar to what happened with Irene in 1999. The models and NHC had a forecast track W and toward the Panhandle. But the storm ended up heading N and NNE further to the E and entering the Atlantic off the NE FL coast. That was in October, and in that case, the trough ended up being stronger than forecast. So if worry #1 outlined above comes into play, we could see an Irene-type scenario.

Again, this is NOT the likely outcome for Charley. But it is, in my opinion, a possibility especially if Charley gets stronger, earlier than expected.

[caneman]

Expect charley to be at least 100 in the gulf if it goes directly in the centeral part of the gulf that is where you have very warm sst warm loops.
So every one from LA to the big bend of FL should watch this system.

I would epand that down to the SW and West Central coast of Florida too.

[washington]

Good point

Thanks,
Caneman

[Josephine96]

No one is off the hook till the storm is north of your latitude.. and even then it's not completely safe..

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Charley Advisory Number 5

Statement as of 11:00 am AST on August 10, 2004

...Charley continues moving rapidly west-northwestward over the
Caribbean...

At 11 am AST...the government of Jamaica has issued a tropical storm
watch for Jamaica.

Interests in and around the central and northwest Caribbean Sea
should closely monitor the progress of this system.

At 11 am AST...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm
Charley was located near latitude 13.7 north...
longitude 68.3 west or about 350 miles... 560 km...
south-southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic.

Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 24 mph
...39 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter plane is scheduled to
investigate Charley late this afternoon.

Repeating the 11 am AST position...13.7 N... 68.3 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 24 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 45 mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
AST.

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Charley Discussion Number 5

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 10, 2004

The tropical storm continues to gradually become better organized.
Banding features have become a little better defined and Dvorak
intensity estimates are 35 kt...35 kt...and 45 kt...from
AFWA...SAB...and TAFB respectively. Current intensity is set at 40
kt. An Air Force plane is scheduled to check out the storm later
today and should give a better estimate of the strength of Charley.
Upper-level outflow is particularly prominent over the northern
semicircle...and the environment continues to appear favorable for
strengthening. Thus the official forecast shows a steady increase
in strength but is more conservative than the ships or GFDL
guidance. Charley is likely to be a hurricane over the northwest
Caribbean but there is always a fair amount of uncertainty in
intensity predictions at 72 hours and beyond.
The wind radii have been expanded a bit based on a recent Quikscat
overpass...and the 12 ft seas were adjusted based on a report from
ship elwr5 to the northwest of Charley.
There has been no significant change to the estimated motion.
Charley remains embedded in a swift easterly steering current to
the south of a strong deep layer high. Track guidance is rather
tightly clustered through about 72 hours...but becomes more
divergent thereafter. By that time...the steering currents will
likely weaken as a result of a large mid-tropospheric trough over
the eastern United States. The GFS and GFDL models are the
easternmost of the ensemble with the NOGAPS and U.K. Met. Office
tracks substantially farther west over the central Gulf. However
these latter two tracks are probably too far to the left because of
an unrealistically weak vortex in the simulation. The official
forecast leans toward the GFS/GFDL solutions.

Forecaster Pasch/brown

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 10/1500z 13.7n 68.3w 40 kt
12hr VT 11/0000z 14.5n 71.3w 45 kt
24hr VT 11/1200z 15.7n 75.0w 50 kt
36hr VT 12/0000z 17.0n 78.0w 55 kt
48hr VT 12/1200z 18.3n 80.5w 60 kt
72hr VT 13/1200z 20.5n 84.5w 70 kt
96hr VT 14/1200z 24.0n 86.5w 80 kt
120hr VT 15/1200z 28.0n 87.0w 85 kt(100 mph!)

[boca]

I feel S Fl is off the hook for Charley because of the data at hand,it will slide under Cuba and go into the East Central Gulf and be a Miss,AL FL panhandle issue.

[jlauderdal]

I feel S Fl is off the hook for Charley because of the data at hand,it will slide under Cuba and go into the East Central Gulf and be a Miss,AL FL panhandle issue.

They mention weak steering currents toward the end of the forecast...that means who knows where it is going. ANything beyond 72 hours is a total guess.

[TxAggie]

I also think that the impact of upwelling depends on where the first storm passes. The section of the GOM under Bonnie is relatively shallow, so less chance of deep cold water upwelling. It should have the effect of just stirring up the warm water.

[Ground_Zero_92]

With the guidance at hand today, it looks like South Florida will dodge this.

With the said, I agree with jlauderdal and have little confidence in the five day. I'd be a rich man if I had a dollar for every extended forecast that had a direct hit at Miami and never even came close. With everything in the mix here (Bonnie, Charley, trough, etc) everyone north of either storm needs to monitor them.

[ColdFront77]

It was Isidore and Lili in 2002. Bad analogy and here's why:

1. That was in Late September and Early October when the water is cooler

2. Isidore(first one) took up the entire Gulf after it hit the Yucatan.

Now compare that to now:

1. This is Mid-August, the water temps are in the upper 80s and low 90s

2. Bonnie is VERY compact

Shouldn't have much impact at all.

Interesting, the water temperatures warm up in September and October off the Mid-Atlantic and New England waters,
beings that there is lag in the warming of that portion of the Atlantic.

It looks like Charley will be passing to the east of where Bonnie was and actually more importantly will be.

[Rainband]

If the storm is the size the gdlf shows landfall wont matter

[Derek Ortt]

Visible sat imagery shows that the cenyer is not exposed and WV shows an UL to the west. Maybe those blasted models messed up yet another shear forecast

[ColdFront77]

Is S FL off the hook with Charley or is their a possibility that the trough is stronger than expected to steer Charley into the Florida Peninsula(not talking about the panhandle).

It appears where Charley is located now and the expected track will put the eastern side of the storm at least close enough for some bands to effect southern, southwestern and west-central Florida.

[chris_fit]

I dont't think so. That convection is growing and wrapping around that center VERY quickly. I expect a Hurricane within 24 hours.
Check out that outflow too. Something is going on down there!!!