Frances Advisories

[stormie_skies]

[frederic79]

Perhaps I'm showing my meteorological ignorance here, but where do the latest BAMD, BAMM, A98E and LBAR model outputs fit into the 11PM NHC advisory plots for Frances? Those models are unanimous in taking Frances due west again around 17N, yet the hurricane center has it shooting off into the Atlantic past 20N! Help - I'm confused.

[wxman57]

In order for Frances to actually take that track, it would have to make an immediate turn to about 315 degrees. There's certainly no sign of a turn. I can't understand why the NHC hasn't caught on to the more rapid and more westward path yet instead of using some blend of the GFS and UKMET. Time to step back and look at the big picture!

[Derek Ortt]

go by the forecasts, not by individual model runs, just as the model disclaimers say.

Also, there are many models not available to the general public which are also included in these discussions

[wxman57]

The NHC has clearly decided to stick to their initial forecast come hell or high water, regardless of what Frances appears to be doing. What's up with the goofy GFS/UKMET blend as a reasoning? One model is way left, one other model we found is far right, therefore we will go right in the middle? That makes no sense. They need to step back and take a look at a long satellite loop and note that Frances is moving nearly due west at 15+ kts. It's not about to make a 45 deg right turn.

[dixiebreeze]

I agree, wxman57. I actually just posted that very sentiment. Don't know why they are sticking with the northerly turn.

[dixiebreeze]

Not such an off the wall guess, about possibly making it to the GOM. Hope it's not a Charley replay!

[Aquawind]

i think it's going to become cat5 and hit miami... then back out
and still cat 5 hit jacksoneville... head southwest and emerge
in the gulf as a cat2 but quicky regain cat 5 status. Then go to
new orleans cat5... then back up into the gulf... still cat5... goes
to houston and rakes the coast down to corpus then back into the
gulf.. still cat5... then heads strait for tampa... but at the last moment
it swerves south and comes ashore near ft myers... after that...
i have know idea... it's hard to forcast beyond 2 weeks...

Ohh NOOO Not again....

[TS Zack]

Yall will die if this system does do all that.

[TS Zack]

Yall will die if this system does do all that. Nearly impossible though but HEY.

It Can Happen!

[Steve]

I don't have a gut feeling either way. Some models have been trending west as has the NHC's official track (which will obviously be further adjusted as the days go by). There are a lot of variables right now (including the possibility of pulse development that can always follow the WPAC and EPAC and change everything on short notice.

Steve

[mobilebay]

Way to early to speculate on that. I think by Sunday or Monday we may be able to give a more educated guess.

[dixiebreeze]

now and especially to the west where some shear was having an earlier effect:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Aquawind]

Yeah.. I wanna see the GUNA..GUNS.. and FSU Super..Links would be great..

[mobilebay]

Hi Dixie. It looks a whole lot better than it did this evening when I seen it.

[Aquawind]

Yep..Well Said..was just noticing that..

[LaBreeze]

Gut feeling at this very early point - no. I don't think that Frannie-girl will make her way to the GOM. As stated, this is not based on anything but gut feeling.

[corpusbreeze]

Gut feeling at this very early point - no. I don't think that Frannie-girl will make her way to the GOM. As stated, this is not based on anything but gut feeling.

That was pretty much the Question, just a gut feeling, no technical stuff here.

[LaBreeze]

Just thought I would answer the question with my worthless two-cents.

[LaBreeze]

Question - If Frannie-girl slows in forward motion, would that be a sign of the start of a turn to the WNW, NW, or N eventually? Just wondering?