Frances Advisories

calidoug · #2601 Postby **calidoug** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:43 am

Looks like the annular transition was a no-go at this point... instead the eye is contracting (it appears as of 815Z, anyway), and we're seeing the convection cooling and the storm re-strengthening.

Right on 20.0N right now (815Z) to my eye. (well, okay, 19.9N, perhaps)

Doug

James · #2602 Postby **James** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:44 am

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 26

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 31, 2004

satellite and aircraft data indicate that Frances is completing a
concentric eyewall cycle. The Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter
reports a 30-40 nm diameter outer eyewall with maximum flight-level
winds of 121 kt at 700 mb...along with a central pressure of 949
mb. Satellite imagery shows the remains of the earlier inner
eyewall are still present. Based on the aircraft data...the
maximum intensity remains 110 kt. The aircraft also shows a wind
maxima outside of the outer eyewall.
The initial motion is now 280/13. Frances remains on the south side
of a strong ridge over the western Atlantic. Large-scale models
all forecast the ridge to weaken during the forecast period...but
there are significant differences in the details which have major
implications for where Frances will end up. Data from the recent
synoptic surveillance mission had some interesting effects on the
dynamical models. The GFS...which has been a left outlier most of
the time...has shifted well to the right and is now a right
outlier...moving Frances northward along 77-78w after 72 hr. The
NOGAPS...which has been a right outlier...is now a left outlier
calling for landfall in southeastern Florida. The GFDL and UKMET
have both shifted their tracks to the right after 72 hr. Given the
large changes in just one cycle...the official forecast will not
change much at all...basically being an update of the previous
package. It is down the center of the model guidance up to 72 hr
and along the left side thereafter.

When the concentric eyewall cycle is finally done...Frances should
strengthen as indicated by the SHIPS and GFDL models. It would not
be a surprise to see more strengthening than currently forecast.
Although not currently reflected in the intensity forecast due to
the uncertainty in the upper-level wind patterns...the ships...
GFDL...and GFS models suggest conditions may become less favorable
after about 48 hr. Also...there remains the possibility of other
concentric eyewall cycles that cannot currently be forecast.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 31/0900z 19.9n 62.8w 110 kt
12hr VT 31/1800z 20.4n 65.0w 115 kt
24hr VT 01/0600z 21.3n 67.7w 120 kt
36hr VT 01/1800z 22.2n 70.2w 120 kt
48hr VT 02/0600z 23.2n 72.3w 120 kt
72hr VT 03/0600z 25.0n 75.5w 120 kt
96hr VT 04/0600z 26.5n 78.5w 120 kt
120hr VT 05/0600z 28.5n 81.5w 85 kt...inland

$$

mobilebay · #2603 Postby **mobilebay** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:44 am

After reading this I don't feel so bad. I think they feel the same as I posted earlier "more confused than ever".

Cyclone Runner · #2604 Postby **Cyclone Runner** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:48 am

A widespread power outage has been reported in Antigua at 4:00 AM, but the winds are quite light and no rain, only very heavy seas.

Cyclone Runner · #2605 Postby **Cyclone Runner** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:55 am

WTNT31 KNHC 310839
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2004

...CATEGORY THREE FRANCES CONTINUING WESTWARD TRACK NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...AND
NEVIS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...
GUADELOPUPE...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA... VIEQUES AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND SURROUNDING
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX...AND FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

APCEDI
http://www.afap.org/apcedi

Thunder44 · #2606 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:19 am

This one came in afterwards.

URNT12 KNHC 310839
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/0839Z
B. 19 DEG 51 MIN N
62 DEG 40 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2662 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 137 DEG 133 KT
G. 050 DEG 24 NM
H. 950 MB
I. 11 C/ 3071 M
J. 18 C/ 3072 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E04/40/30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF966 0806A FRANCES OB 15
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NE QUAD 0831Z.

The pressure went up 1mb, but the winds at flight level have increased. This could be a Cat 4 by the next advisory.

Three Blind Mice · #2607 Postby **Three Blind Mice** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:32 am

she is ready to BOMB!!

schmita · #2608 Postby **schmita** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:34 am

Well, the first of the wind and rain just got here. Not very impressive yet. We shall see........
irina

#2609 Postby **decgirl66** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:43 am

Sooner you are so right! Especially about those people being a mother or father to someone else. I have been praying more that usual the past few days (pray without ceasing!) that if the storm does hit, it has as little impact to humans as possible (physically). He is a man of miracles...I especailly worry about children and the elderly. As it looks right now, I am directly in line for this mess....and not even done cleaning up from Charley! My husband and I have already been discussing a plan.

Valerie

#2610 Postby **abajan** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:45 am

The eye and overall structure is definitely looking better and IMO maximum sustained winds will probably be up to 135 mph by 11 AM.

#2611 Postby **decgirl66** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:45 am

I will be thinking and praying for you!! Be safe

Valerie

rlar798 · #2612 Postby **rlar798** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:55 am

I live in Kissimmee and the thought of this storm coming in by Melborne makes me sick to my stomach. There is still so much debris all over the place, most homes haven't been able to fix the problems caused by Charley, it took 10 days for my to get Electric back and longer for other prople. I haven't even been able to get an adjuster out for my damage yet. I stopped by Walmart last night on the way home from work and the camping lanturns, batteries, etc. were already off the shelves.

So for all of us in the possible path of this storm..... batton down the hatches, and maybe we'll be lucky and this storm will decide to turn away. My wishcast... that Frances does an about turn and goes back to where she came from. No one in Central Florida wants her to visit and we don't want her visiting anyone else either.

Anonymous · #2613 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:56 am

Disagree.
Notice the ring of reds is quite far from the eye, and the eye itself isn't contracting, its just not completely circular yet. I think it may very well be an annular hurricane.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

B-Bear · #2614 Postby **B-Bear** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:59 am

I was thinking the same thing. This looks like it's becoming VERY symetrical and evenly distributed. It truly does look like it might be transitioning to annular. Of course, it could be someting else going on that just resembles that too. But it sure does look like an annular hurricane developing.

That would be some not-so-good news.

CocoaBill · #2615 Postby **CocoaBill** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:06 am

What could the effect will the ULL spinning over the Bahamas have on moving Frances away from Florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I know steering currents are from the lower levels, but is there any chance this ULL is going to have any helpful effects?

#2616 Postby **ericinmia** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:09 am

it appears to be weakening by the hour, and pushing out. The high moving in with Frances seems to be taking over...

-Eric

das8929 · #2617 Postby **das8929** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:15 am

Wow shes a beauty! Almost perfectly a donut! Looks like the windfield is gonna get significantly bigger as well!

#2618 Postby **jlauderdal** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:26 am

CocoaBill wrote:What could the effect will the ULL spinning over the Bahamas have on moving Frances away from Florida?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I know steering currents are from the lower levels, but is there any chance this ULL is going to have any helpful effects?

seems to be moving in tandem to the west so yes there could be helpful effects mainly ventilating the system if you call that helpful. i know you meant helpful being steering it away but i see that as highly unlikely.

#2619 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:32 am

oh gezzz...what is that map saying in laymen terms?? Eric i enjoy your post btw.... :wink:

Anonymous · #2620 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:34 am

If this does stay an annular storm, then when it hits it will be devestating, especially if its a Cat 5 (Possible but not probable).

Frances Advisories

Frances Discussion #26

5:00 AM Caribbean Warnings Update

She here !!!!!!!

Hurricane Frances

ULL moving Frances away from FL?

Re: ULL moving Frances away from FL?

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