Frances Advisories

[alicia-w]

How is it down in Puerto Rico? Everything okay for you there?

[cycloneye]

How is it down in Puerto Rico? Everything okay for you there?

Yes we did well as little effects came here.Some rain in bands and winds at max at around 26 mph and that was it.

[Three Blind Mice]

Bump....this change could have implications at 11am

[vbhoutex]

With her pressure continuing to fall Hurricane Frances continues her West-Northwest track heading towards the Turks and Caicos Islands. Hurricane warnings have been hoisted for the Southeastern Bahamas including Acklins, Crooked, Inaguas, Mayaguana, and Ragged Islands as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands. Hurricane Watches are in effect for the Central Bahamas including Cat, Exumas, Long Islands, Rum Cay and San Salvador. Tropical storm warnings remain for the North coast of the Dominimcan Republic from Punta Gorda to Manzanillo Bay. Hurricane Frances is located near lat. 21.4N, lon. 69.1W about 130 miles East of Grand Turk Island. Her current 17 mph WNW movement is expected to gradually decrease over the next 24 hours bringing the core of this very large and dangerous hurricane near or over the Turks and Caicos Islands by late today. Currently the winds in Hurricane Frances are sustained at 140 mph with gusts to 165 mph making her a Category 4 storm. Fluctuations in her strength are expected over the next few days and Frances could reach Category 5 status during this time. Hurricane force winds extend up to 80 miles form the center of Frances with tropical storm force winds being felt up to 185 miles from the center of the hurricane. The latest central pressure measured in Hurricane Frances is 935mb or 27.61". All persons in the areas under watches and warnings should rush preparations to protect ;ife and property to completion. Frances is a very large and dangerous hurricane. Radar out of San Juan shows that Frances has concentric eyewalss and as these collapse and rebuild some fluctuations in strength will occur, but Frances is expected to remain strong and dangerous none the less. The subtropical ridge to Frances' north is still very strong and is helping keep her on the current West to West-Northwest course which can be expected for at least the next 48 hours before some weakening in the ridge might occur and allow a little more Northwesterly motion still bringing her towards the Florida peninsula. Some models take Frances on a more Northwesterly course which seems unlikely due to the strength of the ridge while one takes her across the South Central Florida peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico. The current projected track is a consensus of all the models and continues to aim Frances at the Central Florida peninsula with landfall projected over the weekend probably on Saturday. More than likely Hurricane watches will need to be hoisted late today or early tomorrow for sections of the East coast of Florida depending on how long Frances continues her current speed and when the expected slow down in forward speed occurs.

Tropical storm Gaston is accelerating to the Northeast and becoming extratropical. Gaston is located near lat. 42.4N, lon. 61.5W about 185 miles Southeast of Halifax, Nova. With winds near 50 mph this track and 38 mph forward speed are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

The tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic about 500 miles West of the Cape Verde Islands continues moving WNE around 15 mph. Even though convection associated with this system has increased overnight the disturbance is moving into an area of less than optimum conditions for further development and any development will be very slow to occur.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin no tropical storm development is expected through Thursday.

This is not an official product. For official products and details of the effects of this storm in your immediate area contact the NHC or your local NWS office.

by David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)

[cycloneye]

01/1145 UTC 21.4N 69.0W T6.5/6.5 FRANCES -- Atlantic Ocean

[AL Chili Pepper]

Wish I could see the first 72 hours. Look where the loop initializes it...well north of the bahamas. IMO, there's no way that'll happen.

[canegrl04]

So this means shes on the verge of a cat. 5 ?

[btsgmdad]

Make a note of that pressure. While there have been moves up and down, the general trend has been down over the last 24 hours.

[cycloneye]

CI MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS
2 30 KTS 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars

Almost there as the chart shows 6.5=127 kts.7.0 is cat 5 so when you see those then we will have a 5.

[alicia-w]

Then dont even look at the UKMET. It has Frances crossing the peninsula, taking a bit of a SW job and hitting the panhandle/mobile area.. EGAD. i really hope that one's wrong.

[bobbisboy]

Something is making these models kick it north some. Any ideas since these models have been touted by those looking for a S FL landfall? Also note, the initilization is correct and so is the present direction of 285.


NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040901 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040901 1200 040902 0000 040902 1200 040903 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.4N 69.1W 22.3N 71.3W 23.3N 73.0W 24.2N 74.2W
BAMM 21.4N 69.1W 22.2N 71.1W 23.1N 72.8W 24.0N 74.1W
A98E 21.4N 69.1W 22.1N 71.7W 23.2N 73.9W 24.3N 75.8W
LBAR 21.4N 69.1W 22.4N 71.5W 23.4N 73.6W 24.2N 75.5W
SHIP 120KTS 123KTS 127KTS 129KTS
DSHP 120KTS 123KTS 127KTS 129KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040903 1200 040904 1200 040905 1200 040906 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.8N 75.1W 25.9N 76.8W 27.2N 78.3W 29.9N 80.2W
BAMM 24.8N 75.2W 26.1N 77.3W 26.9N 79.2W 28.6N 80.8W
A98E 24.9N 77.8W 24.1N 81.7W 20.3N 84.0W 16.4N 84.5W
LBAR 25.1N 77.6W 26.7N 81.3W 28.6N 84.3W 30.8N 86.2W
SHIP 127KTS 120KTS 110KTS 95KTS
DSHP 127KTS 120KTS 41KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.4N LONCUR = 69.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 20.6N LONM12 = 66.3W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 20.0N LONM24 = 63.4W
WNDCUR = 120KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 120KT
CENPRS = 937MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 160NM RD34SE = 130NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 150NM

[Cyclone Runner]

IMPORTANT COMMUNICATIONS INFORMATION FOR TURK AND CAICOS

Hello Everyone,

It just occurred to me that I should share this information as it could
prove very important as you try and stay in touch with people during the
storm.

The cable TV network contains battery backup units. I didn't confirm before
we left the island if these were going to be turned off, but I have no
reason to believe they were. As long as they are functioning properly they
should provide up to 4 hours of powering in the cable TV line, in the event
that PPC needs to shut down the power grid. What this means is that the
Express cable modem service will continue to function for a few hours even
in the absence of power. The Express server equipment is also on battery
and alternate power sources and should be operational long past the 4 hour
window for the line itself. Likewise, the components that provide the
overall internet connectivity benefit from backup.

While no one can guarantee if or when a break in connectivity may occur, if
you have access to a UPS to power your PC and cable modem, you should find
that you can continue to access the Internet for some time after power
failure.

I hope this helps.

--
Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

[Cyclone Runner]

MORE ASSISTANCE WITH COMMUNICATIONS FOR TURKS AND CAICOS RESIDENTS

How to access Express Web Mail
From: "Jeff Campbell" <jeff AT express.tc>
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2004 09:56:40 -0400

Hi Everyone,

I was just thinking that many of you may be displaced and may not have
access to your regular PC. To access your Express email from the web, you
can go here:

http://webmail.express.tc

Login with your username (the part before the @ in your e-mail address) and
your regular e-mail password. I'm afraid if you can't recall your password
I can't help you from here right now. Sorry.

Likewise, if you're trying to reach anyone on the island who has an
@express.tc or @tcexpress.tc email address, please attempt to send it.
Whether or not the recipient can get the mail right away, it will be stored
on the mail server until they retrieve it.

I will be posting regular updates indicating the % of our customer's modems
that appear to be online. This will give you some idea of the status of the
power network on the island.

As of Wed Spet 1/2004 09:51 EST 72% of our modems were registered as online.
I believe the ones that are offline are due to people packing up and
vacating their premises. Also, some people may have not disconnected their
modem, but they may have moved to higher ground.

I will also continue to report on the availability of our Internet
connection on to the island. I am optimistic it might survive the storm
which will allow us to continue to receive email from the outside, so that
people will have it once their access is restored.
--
Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

[Cyclone Runner]

11:30AM Update from Turtle Tail - Provo
From: "Jeff Campbell" <jeff AT express.tc>
Date: Wed, 1 Sep 2004 11:35:26 -0400

I just spoke to a friend who was online from the Turtle Tail area on the
south side of Provo.

Thunder can be heard. The winds are picking up. There is rain falling.
Apparently it is 50 times worse on the north shore (Grace Bay). My friend
indicated it was impressive watching it approach - a big dark grey dome
coming across the heavens, while he sat below blue skies. He said the eye
wall broke up in the last hour and most of the thunder has been shed off
towards the DR. Hopefully that will mean less rain and the storm will be
less well organized over the next 12 hours. He indicated it seemed
relatively sheltered where he was, when he saw the ocean 20 minutes ago it
was like glass

His rough estimate was current winds at 30 knots on the south side and 50
knots or more on the north side of the island, but that was a very general
estimate not a measurement.

Power has flickered in his area but did not go out.

As of Sept 1 2004 - 11:30 Eastern 59% of our cable modems were still online,
down from 72% at the last update. This may be due to localized power
outages, or it may simply be due to more people powering down their
equipment as the storm nears.

--
Jeff Campbell
General Manager
Express High Speed Internet
jeff@express.tc
Tel 649-941-8209
Fax 649-946-4603

[TexasStooge]

Just in your opinion...

[canegrl04]

If it was going to turn north,it would've done so by now.Continued W- wnw path

[opera ghost]

Voted west- but I beleive it will be a somewhat north of west movement. Possibly WNW or at some points NW- but with an overall more west of north movement for the near future.

[yoda]

LOL, who voted, "I don't care?" Just wondering...

BTW, I voted North because of the new model runs that are coming in.

[CaptinCrunch]

West

[crazycajuncane]

If it moves directly west it will hit the southern part of Flordia or enter the gulf. I vote westerly, because it's got a northerly component to it.