Ivan Advisories

[Derecho]

Dang....it's not gonna give an inch, is it?

Huh?

The new Canadian just flopped from an Alabama landfall to a landfall in the Big Bend of Florida...that's a HUGE flop.

I think this thread and the links were posted before the 0Z fully updated; the models updates gradually.

[mobilebay]

Dang....it's not gonna give an inch, is it?

Huh?

The new Canadian just flopped from an Alabama landfall to a landfall in the Big Bend of Florida...that's a HUGE flop.

I think this thread and the links were posted before the 0Z fully updated; the models updates gradually.

Derocho to the rescue again. NO prediction or forecast just complaints. BY the way that is the new 00Z Canadian and it shows it south of Destin in 120H. Basicly the same place as last night.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Dang....it's not gonna give an inch, is it?

Huh?

The new Canadian just flopped from an Alabama landfall to a landfall in the Big Bend of Florida...that's a HUGE flop.

I think this thread and the links were posted before the 0Z fully updated; the models updates gradually.

Yeah, they did changed after I first looked at them.

[Sanibel]

Ivan is close enough to the NHC predicted track that we started preliminary preparations today. Tomorrow we will continue.

Our island is 7 miles out in the shallow coastal Gulf Of Mexico near the center of the predicted track. We are the next stop after the already evacuation-ordered Keys.


Charley hardly had any surge and spared us major damage by moving quickly. This nightmare's personality is more of a lingering hulk than a sprinter, and won't be so generous if it verifies.

Our nearly non-surge last time could result in a real 15 foot surge this time. Last time 200 people stayed on Sanibel and survived. I hope they aren't foolish enough to try it again...

[Derecho]

[quote="mobilebay
Derocho to the rescue again. NO prediction or forecast just complaints. BY the way that is the new 00Z Canadian and it shows it south of Destin in 120H. Basicly the same place as last night.[/quote]


The 0Z Canadian from last night had landfall around Panama City. the 12Z Canadian today had a landfall in Alabama.

Tonight's Canadian has is a fairly major shift eastwards.

[cape_escape]

God I hope Punta Gorda doesn't get slammed again!!!

[chrisnnavarre]

Storm looks to cross south of the island.....

[Stormcenter]

Dang....it's not gonna give an inch, is it?

Huh?

The new Canadian just flopped from an Alabama landfall to a landfall in the Big Bend of Florida...that's a HUGE flop.

I think this thread and the links were posted before the 0Z fully updated; the models updates gradually.

Derecho do you ever make forecasts or compliment a post? I think you just post when you find something negative to say about someone else post.

[chrisnnavarre]

Flip-Flop-Flip-Flop.

Sounds like someone I know who wants to be President.

If the storm passes south of Jamaica, he may just be right...perhaps he's taking the opportunity to lead, unlike the current resident. Lots of missed opportunities.

[cape_escape]

Ivan is close enough to the NHC predicted track that we started preliminary preparations today. Tomorrow we will continue.

Our island is 7 miles out in the shallow coastal Gulf Of Mexico near the center of the predicted track. We are the next stop after the already evacuation-ordered Keys.


Charley hardly had any surge and spared us major damage by moving quickly. This nightmare's personality is more of a lingering hulk than a sprinter, and won't be so generous if it verifies.

Our nearly non-surge last time could result in a real 15 foot surge this time. Last time 200 people stayed on Sanibel and survived. I hope they aren't foolish enough to try it again...

Sanibel, do you think it is smart to leave the Cape? Or, do you think as long as we take all precautions, it's safe to stay here? I'm about 3 miles from the Caloosahatchee. Any ideas would be appreciated!

[itglobalsecure]

I've been waiting for the insurance models to update, now that the weather models are converging. These models, too, are quite sophisticated. This article also has some interesting historical data on the economic devastation from previous hurricanes, and calls 2004 a "1 year in 50" occurance.

I've seen a lot of forum posters talk about their stay in Florida after rebuilding, but I presume a lot of that depends on the availability of insurance funds.

My first post - wish it was a bit cheerier. But, its quite interesting, assuming I get the URL to display correctly:

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20040909005832&newsLang=en

This is the EQECAT U.S. Hurricane model, which is part of WORLDCATenterprise(TM), was recently re-certified by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology for use in Florida. Primary insurers, reinsurers, intermediaries, and other financial institutions use the model to develop strategies for pricing, portfolio management, and risk transfer.

I am not associated with this firm, or the insurance industry. I ust think the business of hurricanes is almost as interesting as the weather models.

Cheryl

[Guest]

Perhaps some tropical storm force wind gusts in some squals. However I would not be surprised if the NHC track shifts even further east.

<RICKY>

Further East? Why???

[mobilebay]

http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/cgi/puplic/wxmap_single.cgi? are=ngp_namer&dtg_=2004091000&prod=thk&tav=120

Looks like the NOGAPS is now the western outlier so for...

[mobilebay]

Ok. I messed the link up. Someone that can do this better than me please post it.

[JoanFlorida]

Thanks for your forecast...

from your site:

TUE SEP 14 - 8 AM EDT
28.0 n - 81.4 w..............................120 mph
(inland 35 miles south of Orlando, Florida)

TUE SEP 14 - 8 PM EDT
30.0 n - 80.5 w.............................. 115 mph
(over water 70 miles ESE of Jacksonville, FL......also 275 miles SSW of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina)

How close to Melbourne, Florida? (central east coast, 40 miles south of the space center)

Still recouping from Charley and Frances (like everyone in Florida it seems!) Not looking forward to evacuating again to 12 hours on the road in bumper to bumper crawling traffic...besides, where to go??? Can't take much more of this!

[Guest]

Serious forecast for Florida but the impact to the Carolinas appears to lessen overall since the system would reenter the US from the east...?

[calidoug]

It does? I'd say N more likely than S, but a hit looks likely.

[Sanibel]

From what I saw from the last frame I would say a small lift is occurring placing the impact on the east end. Of course it could veer west like Charley did...


This could play out as a more east track to Florida...

[skysummit]

I guess it all depends on how many jogs it takes in each direction. Right now if you take a straight edge and place it on the previous plots and draw a straight line, it will pass to the south....but we all know canes don't like to travel in a straight line.

[Guest]

P.S. After a review of your site, I HAVE to ask...your forecast IS a worse case scenario, right?? I mean, it's not REALLY possible, is it??