Gaston Advisories

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Aquawind
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Re: Gaston being trivialized?

#281 Postby Aquawind » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:20 pm

dhweather wrote:With Frances being such a beast and commanding attention, I hope you folks in the carolinas are paying attention to the badly named G storm.


Well Said..
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Derek Ortt

#282 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:22 pm

the new forecast is now up. I hit the wrong button by mistake when relasing the forecast (I clicked the one that does NOT save the changes to the UNIX file)
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TLHR

#283 Postby TLHR » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:22 pm

For all intents and purposes, Gaston is here.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

Heavy rain bands will now start to come onshore, first in Wilmington then southward to Charleston.

Final preparations should be wrapped up if you live within these two cities.
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#284 Postby PhilWilm » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:22 pm

I think the Wilmington CBS Station is actually out of Raleigh.....
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Downtown Charleston readies for Gaston....

#285 Postby dixiebreeze » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:24 pm

and urges voluntary evacuations:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM GASTON LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
927 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

...GASTON NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS SUGGESTED IN CHARLESTON COUNTY...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF
INLAND MCINTOSH...COASTAL BRYAN...INLAND LIBERTY...INLAND BRYAN...
COASTAL LIBERTY...COASTAL MCINTOSH...BERKELEY...DORCHESTER...INLAND
COLLETON...ALLENDALE...HAMPTON...CHARLESTON...COASTAL COLLETON...
BEAUFORT...INLAND CHATHAM...INLAND JASPER...COASTAL JASPER AND
COASTAL CHATHAM COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE GEORGIA
COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IN EXCESS OF
74 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...BETWEEN 39 AND 73 MPH...ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT MONDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES
SUNDAY.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE SUNDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 8 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR TONIGHT.
GASTON IS DRIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TONIGHT. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE BETWEEN DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND ISLE OF PALMS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AT 9 PM EDT...THE STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA...IN COOPERATION WITH
CHARLESTON COUNTY...HAS ASKED FOR A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF THE
BARRIER ISLANDS OF CHARLESTON COUNTY AS WELL AS LOW LYING AREAS. THIS
INCLUDES THE LOWER PENINSULA OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. A VOLUNTARY
EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOMES THROUGHOUT CHARLESTON COUNTY IS ALSO
ENCOURAGED. ALL DRAW BRIDGES AND SWING BRIDGES IN CHARLESTON COUNTY
HAVE ALSO BEEN LOCKED DOWN TO ACCOMMODATE VEHICULAR TRAFFIC.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS...WILL INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF COASTAL FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE PREDICTED
LEVELS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ON THE BEACHES NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF
CHARLESTON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN BAYS AND RIVERS.
OFFSHORE WINDS OVER THE GEORGIA COAST AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST WILL LIMIT THE STORM TIDE SOUTH OF BEAUFORT. HIGH TIDE WILL
OCCUR IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AT 749 AM SUNDAY AND AT 906 AM AT
BEAUFORT.

...WIND IMPACTS...
WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS AND ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THE CURRENT TRACK HOLDS...HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS AROUND 75 MPH MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...
INCLUDING ISLE OF PALMS...FOLLY BEACH...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...MOUNT
PLEASANT AND THE REMAINDER OF SULLIVANS ISLAND.

FARTHER INLAND OVER DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES...WINDS SUNDAY
WILL BE 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH. FOR BEAUFORT AND COASTAL
COLLETON COUNTIES...WINDS WILL BE 25 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 45 MPH...MAINLY ALONG THE BEACHES. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS HAMPTON...ALLENDALE AND JASPER COUNTIES.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WINDS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
WILL REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WHILE THE CURRENT TRACK
SHOWS LITTLE WIND EFFECTS FOR COASTAL GEORGIA...A SHIFT IN THE
EXPECTED FORECAST TRACK MAY INCREASE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE
GEORGIA COAST. ALL RESIDENTS UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SHOULD
PREPARE FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.

...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS...
SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS GASTON
APPROACHES THE COAST. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT. SEAS OF 6 TO
10 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. AS SWELL BREAKS ALONG BEACHES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST...FLOODING RAINS WILL BE LIKELY
MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY OF SOUTH CAROLINA. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
CLOSE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. LESSER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. WITH THE
GROUND STILL FAIRLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINS...FLOODING IS LIKELY.
THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION FOR DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM GASTON CAN BE FOUND IN
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...AS WELL AS
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND MIDNIGHT.
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doglegleft
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#286 Postby doglegleft » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:24 pm

mb229... Hee Haw is past my bed time... too busy right now celebrating another red sox victory and a Pats lead over the the Panthers. DirecTV is a wonderful thing here in the low country!
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TLHR

#287 Postby TLHR » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:25 pm

http://www.wpde.com

Myrtle Beach, SC.

Hope this helps.
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Guest

#288 Postby Guest » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:28 pm

Gaston is definitly intensifying right now...
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WESTCHESTERPA

#289 Postby WESTCHESTERPA » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:29 pm

Looking at the latest satellite imagery, Gaston is a Hurricane. Need next recon to confirm.
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#290 Postby doglegleft » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:30 pm

Thanks... I gave up on the locals around here shortly after we moved in...

Storm2K + real time radar... works for me!

The sad part is, here in Brunswick Co. there are several retirement / affluent golf communities along the coast... my wife and I took a walk around our neighborhood this evening and no one we stopped to chat with had a clue.
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TLHR

#291 Postby TLHR » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:32 pm

Welcome to The Slowcountry.....
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seahawkjd
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Gaston 11pm

#292 Postby seahawkjd » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:34 pm

65 mph winds moving nnw at 3 mph
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11 PM GASTON DISCUSSION!!!!!!

#293 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:35 pm

Tropical Storm Gaston Discussion Number 6

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2004

A U.S. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft measured 60 kt
winds at 1500 ft flight level to the southwest of the center and
measured a central pressure of 994 mb and also reported a 35 N mi
diameter eye with some open areas. Both Charleston and Wilmington
radars show an eye-type feature except open to the south. The wind
speed is increased to 55 kt based on the above. With light
vertical shear and warm SSTs...both the SHIPS and GFDL models bring
Gaston to about 65 kt before landfall. The official intensity
forecast follows this guidance.


The initial motion is 330/03 based on recon...radar and satellite
fixes. The track guidance continues the same scenario of a turn
toward the north and then northeast in response to an advancing
short wave trough in the westerlies. The official track forecast
is the same as the previous advisory...except a little faster...
through 24 hours. After 24 hours...the official forecast is
adjusted to the left of the previous advisory and is also faster in
agreement with a consensus of the global track models.


Recon observations show that the radius of 35 kt winds is only about
50 N mi or less in all quadrants. The radii east of the center are
forecast to expand to 75 N mi as Gaston moves northward.


Forecaster Lawrence


forecast positions and Max winds


initial 29/0300z 31.7n 79.2w 55 kt
12hr VT 29/1200z 32.3n 79.5w 65 kt
24hr VT 30/0000z 33.6n 79.7w 55 kt...inland
36hr VT 30/1200z 35.1n 79.0w 30 kt...inland
48hr VT 31/0000z 36.7n 77.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 01/0000z 41.0n 70.0w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 02/0000z 45.0n 59.0w 30 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 03/0000z 47.0n 46.0w 30 kt...extratropical




$$
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NOAA-NHC Saubers1
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#294 Postby NOAA-NHC Saubers1 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:35 pm

I concur, it looks like one, but that means nothing, until the 11pm update from the hunters.

-Forecaster Saubers
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STORMSURGE
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#295 Postby STORMSURGE » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:37 pm

Yeah not much on my tv with the big three networks, hey maybe they have become not only politically biased, but also weather biased LOL
Possibilities: Agirl blowstorm is better than a guy storm

Or bigger is better

more damage, more coverage cash .

OK Im going crazy, computer with weather while flipping between the race and the panthers, geez I need more eyes, or more tvs
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#296 Postby NOAA-NHC Saubers1 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:39 pm

Just as expected. I told everyone it was going to move to the northeast.
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doglegleft
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#297 Postby doglegleft » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:40 pm

HEY HEY!

PATS go up by a touchdown and CBS Wilmington posts a Hurricane Statement with great detail.... position, strength, movement, additional strengthening expected before landfall. Secure your lawn furniture / outdoor objects. GREAT TIMING!

Its a pre-season game in the 4th quarter... I love it... slow country is right, HA!

Go PATS!
Last edited by doglegleft on Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TLHR

#298 Postby TLHR » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:40 pm

Nothing trivial about this. Look at these storm tracks.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... entery=266

If you live in Berkeley, Dorchester, or Orangeburg counties, some squalls will spin your way.
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mb229
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#299 Postby mb229 » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:45 pm

doglegleft...go to Dockside in Calabash and have a large seafood platter for me before they lose power. :D
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#300 Postby doglegleft » Sat Aug 28, 2004 9:46 pm

NOAA-NHC... I'll let you know how it works out... I am 5 miles north of Little River.
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