Bonnie Advisories

[Hyperstorm]

I'm VERY surprised they decided to call this a TD. I had trouble finding any well defined LLC. If it has a LLC it is very poorly defined. Well, time to eat some crow, I guess.

[Guest]

Any chance 91L hitting Florida?

[soonertwister]

Any chance 91L hitting Florida?

Of course. It's not a big possibility, but it's out there.

[Stormchaser16]

its a depression now, not 91L

[cycloneye]

Puerto Rico is in the track of the NHC guidance so the officials here are already preparing.

[Brent]

5-day track

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Take it with a grain of salt right now.

[Nimbus]

Its moving pretty fast so may not develop very quickly. Won't the BAM S hallow layer be tracking a little further left?

[Stormchaser16]

Looks right to me ATT. Alex moving out NE with the incoming trough will force the Bermuda high to retreat over the next 24-36 HRS. This will cause a steady NW motion out of TD2/Bonnie. After that time, there ARE signs of more ridging taking place, however depending on the actual strength of future TS Bonnie, it may or may not have a great steering affect on Bonnie.

[HurricaneGirl]

Hurray for Tropical Depression #2!!

[Brent]

Hurricane in 96 hours!

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 03, 2004


Satellite images suggest that the tropical wave in the tropical
Atlantic approaching the Lesser Antilles has become a little better
organized and it is being classified as a tropical depression. It
is difficult to ascertain if the system...an especially fast moving
one...has a closed circulation without data from a reconnaissance
plane. You could make the case that a small circulation exists
using quicksat ambiguity analysis. The depression has enough deep
convection...banding features and good outflow and the shear is
expected to remain on the weak side. Therefore...a gradual
strengthening is indicated. This is consistent with both SHIPS and
GFDL models.
The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 18 knots...
steered by the winds south of the subtropical ridge. However...
large scale models forecast a large trough over the eastern coast
of the United States. This trough will erode the subtropical ridge
forcing the cyclone to turn more to northwest and north during the
last portion of the forecast.
Preliminary coordinations have been made with the meteorologists
from the Lesser Antilles to issue watches and warnings later today
if necessary.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/1500z 13.2n 54.2w 25 kt
12hr VT 04/0000z 14.0n 57.0w 35 kt
24hr VT 04/1200z 15.0n 60.5w 40 kt
36hr VT 05/0000z 16.5n 64.0w 45 kt
48hr VT 05/1200z 18.0n 67.0w 50 kt
72hr VT 06/1200z 21.0n 69.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 07/1200z 25.5n 71.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 08/1200z 30.0n 72.0w 70 kt

[Stormchaser16]

Wanted to check a pretty reliable MR model, so I went to the ECMWF to try and base some of my thougts off of.

In the time that the global models bring TD2/Bonnie north of PR(about 4-5 days) the EC shows a pretty signifigant trough coming into the eastern US.

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_ ... &cu=latest

At this time it looks like future Bonnie would surely be turned out to sea by this. There is little doubt in my mind ATT that Bonnie would be a fish storm. I would say there is a chance that it would slide south of all this, however that appears very unlikely given the trough clearing the coast shortly combined with Alex which will force the ridge to retreat within 36 hours. This is forecasted by just about every global model. Surely this will start the curve north for Bonnie, and as it does that, the new trough will cross the country and put the final cap on its track.

[Hyperstorm]

Here's the discussion: At least I wasn't the only one having a hard time finding a closed circulation...

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 03, 2004


Satellite images suggest that the tropical wave in the tropical
Atlantic approaching the Lesser Antilles has become a little better
organized and it is being classified as a tropical depression. It
is difficult to ascertain if the system...an especially fast moving
one...has a closed circulation without data from a reconnaissance
plane. You could make the case that a small circulation exists
using quicksat ambiguity analysis. The depression has enough deep
convection...banding features and good outflow and the shear is
expected to remain on the weak side. Therefore...a gradual
strengthening is indicated. This is consistent with both SHIPS and
GFDL models.
The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 18 knots...
steered by the winds south of the subtropical ridge. However...
large scale models forecast a large trough over the eastern coast
of the United States. This trough will erode the subtropical ridge
forcing the cyclone to turn more to northwest and north during the
last portion of the forecast.
Preliminary coordinations have been made with the meteorologists
from the Lesser Antilles to issue watches and warnings later today
if necessary.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/1500z 13.2n 54.2w 25 kt
12hr VT 04/0000z 14.0n 57.0w 35 kt
24hr VT 04/1200z 15.0n 60.5w 40 kt
36hr VT 05/0000z 16.5n 64.0w 45 kt
48hr VT 05/1200z 18.0n 67.0w 50 kt
72hr VT 06/1200z 21.0n 69.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 07/1200z 25.5n 71.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 08/1200z 30.0n 72.0w 70 kt

[Josephine96]

The big question will be when the storm turns to the north.. If it does.. when will it make a turn back towards the west..

Everyone from Florida on up should keep a close eye on it..

Glad to see storms are now a poppin'

[Josephine96]

I know it's way too early to tell.. But where do you think #2 will end up and how strong..

It could be a fish if a front were to pick it up.. but we'll see..

[Hyperstorm]

I would say the best answer is in the official forecast by the NHC. Anything can happen beyond this point and nothing is certain.

I'm still a bit skeptical with the system having a well defined LLC, so first we'll have to see if it's able to maintain itself and strengthen.

[Stormchaser16]

I think ive provided more then sufficient evidence to show it probably wont turn back towards the west

[Guest]

Any chance TD 2 slows, thus bypassing the trough or is no way jose it is out to sea?

[hurricanefloyd5]

I know it's way too early to tell.. But where do you think #2 will end up and how strong..

It could be a fish if a front were to pick it up.. but we'll see..

i like it to hit orlando as something weak

[Stormchaser16]

FISH written all over it........ again, alot of posts about the same exact topic are showing up here......

[jlauderdal]

Any chance TD 2 slows, thus bypassing the trough or is no way jose it is out to sea?

out to c