Ivan Advisories

[BUD]

Based on what is being said , my mother in law has a close friend that lives in DeLand if IVAN was to come would they be ok???

[bahamaswx]

Probably, yes.

[southerngale]

Very interesting discussion. Thanks for posting it Sean.

[NorthGaWeather]

The high is not weakening as fast as you claim and I hear tell from NHC it is building in some more than thought.

[artinla]

Thanks for the great and quick response.

My confusion now is only this:

Unless I got the graphics reversed, the "Building Low" to the south of the Bermuda high has diminished almost to the point of non-existence. The "Blocking High" has moved nearly 200 miles east in just six hours. With the rapid weakening of the Bermuda High and the quick eastward movement of the Texas High, what is to keep the Texas high from moving far enough east (say directly over Florida by Sunday) to "Wrap" Ivan further west than present forecasts indicate?

[ericinmia]

The high is not weakening as fast as you claim and I hear tell from NHC it is building in some more than thought.

This is directly from the mouth of the NHC, specifically forecaster Beven

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF IVAN SHOULD STEER IT GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC CURRENTLY NEAR 31N52W. ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...WITH DIFFERENCES ON
HOW FAR EAST THAT TURN WILL OCCUR.

-Eric

[NorthGaWeather]

Eric, do you notice the high dropping WSW?

[ericinmia]

eric

Excuse my ignorance, trying to learn. I took a look at the graphics, but they left me with more questions than answers.
It appears to me that the storm is moving too slowly and is too far south to get caught in the trough before the high presently over Texas moves into the eastern gulf. (It appears to be moving quickly toward the east) Would this not force Ivan further west before the northward turn?

It appears that way by the way the map was drawn but through other resources, it has shown strengthening... we are in the eclipse right now so the goes sat. don't send data, but... when they come back up check the atlantic WV loop here...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Answering the other question about the High building wsw...
Here is the loop to those steering currents... it shows it attempting to rebuild earlier today, however, theat has ceased and the regreation remains dominant.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 5java.html

-Eric

[PurdueWx80]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES07012004254Wiun5B.jpg

Updated

[WeatherNLU]

Stationary?

[southerngale]

The high is not weakening as fast as you claim and I hear tell from NHC it is building in some more than thought.

This is directly from the mouth of the NHC, specifically forecaster Beven

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF IVAN SHOULD STEER IT GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC CURRENTLY NEAR 31N52W. ALL
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...WITH DIFFERENCES ON
HOW FAR EAST THAT TURN WILL OCCUR.

-Eric

But you said that it had already weakened. Most of us can't see that. NHC is saying that it will weaken, not that it already has.

[artinla]

Well, I don't feel quite so stupid now that I know the graphics weren't quite up to par. Thanks for the links also, they explain things much better.

Art

[PurdueWx80]

You can see the loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Do a 3 frame animation at 100% quality. The last two frames are teh most recent post-eclipse images. There is very little motion. This does NOT mean Ivan is stationary...but such a tiny move between the two frames indicates very slow forward motion now.

[mobilebay]

You can see the loop here:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Do a 3 frame animation at 100% quality. The last two frames are teh most recent post-eclipse images. There is very little motion. This does NOT mean Ivan is stationary...but such a tiny move between the two frames indicates very slow forward motion now.

I see a pretty good jump on the Floater zoom. Also, recon reported that between 00Z, and 0600Z it moved a degee and a half. We shall see I guess.

[ericinmia]

Without really spending the time calculating it... i see almost a NW movement... the Goes is playing tricks on you...

Here is at 0345z


Here is at 645z (about 3 hours later)


-Eric

[Dmetal81]

Uhh, the frames are only 15 minutes apart each, exactly how far do you want him to move in 15 minutes? Seems that the movement speed is on track... WNW 13mph

[southerngale]

The last two images are only 16 minutes apart though. I wouldn't think it should look like much of a jump.

[PurdueWx80]

I mean between 0645 and 0700. There is a WNW motion between 0345 and 0645. Ivan has slowed considerably only very recently.

[Dmetal81]

I dont think you can count two images as either a trend or a way to calculate speeed. I think you may be jumping the gun just a bit, add 5 more frames and maybe we could begin to see that, if that was even the case.

[ericinmia]

An interesting side note about the latest image...

It appears that the majority of the CDO has shifted to the southeast of the storm... I wonder what implications this might have, and the reason for it.

Its not sheer...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... midshr.GIF
-Eric