Frances Advisories

[Mattie]

Just for those that haven't seen the latest advisory -


000
WTNT31 KNHC 260833
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2004

...FRANCES A LITTLE STRONGER...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1195 MILES...1925 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR ...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...12.6 N... 43.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[Mattie]

bingo! Thunder . . .

"HEY!!! Just wanted to announce.. Mike Watkins said he thinks hurricane by 5am Friday. I say hurricane before or by 11pm tonight"

I say after 11, but before 5 a.m. tomorrow. . .

[Dave C]

The TPC 5am disc. mentioned a possible "banding" eye on sat. images so more visable shots today could verify this by 11am or 5pm.

[george_r_1961]

it has a somewhat less favorable envornment to deal with...so the intensifying will either stop or become much less rapid at least in the short term.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[Anonymous]

[hurricanemike]

MUY BIEN!!!

[Deenac813]

WOW! That is a great shot. Let's hope she does not come this way!

[AussieMark]

she could get massive.

Floyd was a large Hurricane.

I wonder if Frances will get as large.

[AussieMark]

so her winds have increased by 20 mph.

and central pressure dropped by 9 mb

in 6 hours.

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!!

[Guest]

I think this could be a hurricane by tonight/early AM Friday. We need to watch this one though. I remember in the beginning when most people said that it would curve out to sea .

[Terry]

I realize there are plenty of variables, however I'd like some ideas on approximate timing that Frances MIGHT impact the northern Bahamas - specifically the Abacos - with more than some large surf and rain! We are travelling to our family home there on Sept. 2 and I'd like to make some contingency plans.

Watched Floyd via radar pass right over Green Turtle Cay and saw the damage afterward. Since our "local" friends there said they'd never again ride out a bad one, I don't intend to either.

Thank you for some guess-casting on the path's timing.

[caneman]

I realize there are plenty of variables, however I'd like some ideas on approximate timing that Frances MIGHT impact the northern Bahamas - specifically the Abacos - with more than some large surf and rain! We are travelling to our family home there on Sept. 2 and I'd like to make some contingency plans.

Watched Floyd via radar pass right over Green Turtle Cay and saw the damage afterward. Since our "local" friends there said they'd never again ride out a bad one, I don't intend to either.

Thank you for some guess-casting on the path's timing.

If it were to come that way, I think timing would be week to 10 days. I would wait a few days and see where the 5 day path takes it.

[Guest]

Well watch it, hopefully it just turns out to sea.

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, it could easily be at 5 PM. The eye is there, albeit very small and transient, but it's there. If it just organizes a little more...

[Yankeegirl]

Nice little storm... Looks like it has some major potential for something really serious later down the road...

[cycloneye]

26/1145 UTC 12.8N 44.1W T3.5/3.5 FRANCES -- Atlantic Ocean

[cycloneye]

MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS
2 30 KTS 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)

CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric

Here is the chart for all the T numbers.3.5 means 55kts

[hurricanemike]

TPNT KGWC 261150
A. TROPICAL STORM FRANCIS (SIX)
B. 26/1131Z (65)
C. 12.8N/1
D. 44.2W/0
E. SIX/MET7
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS -26/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .75 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL.
FINAL T BASED ON DT, PT AND MET SUPPORTS.

AODT: T4.5 (CDO)

ARCHULETTA