Ivan Advisories

[das8929]

I wouldnt count on that. It is right now 145 mph, a strong Cat 4. It is also reorganizing, and the eye can come back soon. It wouldnt surprise me if it kept its intensity all the way to Jamaica.

[Brent]

Yep... looks like Kingston will be in the eyewall.

[Mello1]

So with the People in the Keyes moving into FLorida...eventually they will have to evacuate in Florida as well, how far are the people in the Keyes going to drive..to Miami? to Port Charlotte? or do they leave and try to go to Jacksonville? and the people who will be told to evacuate later *possibly* in tampa, sarasota, punta gorda..where do you go to Orlando? or maybe to Georgia. Basically, this is not going to be pretty...and gas will be a problem again

I was listening to news reports where they were saying that some were just going to keep driving until they were out of Florida completely. Some were saying Tennessee and possibly parts north of that... Certainly the criss-crossing game Charlie and Frances played on Florida makes it diffcult...

[Derek Ortt]

John cangilosi and myself both feel that it is more likely to move more northerly, but we are closely watching for any Charley type EC events

[Guest]

There is a big difference between a strong cat 4 and cat 3.and I hope I am right. Nevertheless it is too late this eye looks dead on.

[Hurrilurker]

Great link cylconeye, thank you. I guess there is no radar in Jamaica (or it's not web-accessible)?

[Weatherboy1]

Looking at several hours of satellite loops, it looks to me like Ivan may just clip the eastern tip of Jamaica. The 5 a.m. forecast map put out by the NHC appears to show a Jamaican landfall further west, maybe 50-75 miles or so. These are small details, and unfortunately, Jamaica looks like it will take the brunt of this storm no matter what. But if we don't get more jogs to the west in the next several hours, I believe the NHC will have to shift its track further east ... which has implications for any eventual US landfall in FL. Too early to say 100% whether this is a definite trend, though. But it bears watching.

[Hyperstorm]

The causes of that are a bit complicated, so I won't be able to give you all the details, however, there are several factors which can influence it.

1) First and foremost: Available Energy. In other words, sufficient latent heat from the ocean surface to feed into the storm. The longer a system remains over warm waters, the better the chances of it growing larger.

2) Available outflow. The more expansive of the outflow pattern, the more room for the system to expand in size. Gilbert had an extraordinarily strong outflow pattern since its inception. No wonder it became one of the largest hurricanes on record with a diameter close to 1000 miles across.

3) Latitude. The further north the hurricane travels, potentially the larger it can become. This is all due to processes involved with baroclinic enhancement and so forth...

4) Incipient disturbance. Of course, one must also look at the incipient disturbance's size in order to determine potential size growth. The larger a system is in the early stages, the more likely it will become a larger storm. *This factor by itself does NOT guarantee a large storm.*

I should note that even if the factors stated above are met, it doesn't guarantee that we'll see a large storm. There are so many factors that come into play that even meteorologists don't fully understand. That's why this is a taboo question for many.

I'm sure the professional mets can add to what I have already stated. Great question! Thanks for asking...

[dennis1x1]

the models do have a clue on forecasting shear however.....and this one should get weaker as time goes on thanks to the forecast shear (frances, part 2)....the shear is forecast to be even stronger than with frances.......cat 1 or 2 at florida.....


god bless shear this year, 2 potential devastating storms saved by shear.

[Guest]

Hope your right. That might all the difference to them.

[meteorjosh]

weakening as well

a weakening storm is like a top slowing down and starting to wobble rather than mantaining a tight spin...also think of a football

[Foladar]

Oddly I feel so "safe" in Homestead :|

[Brent]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... arine.html

[Foladar]

slowed to 11mph too

[Brent]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Tuesday 8am position is near St. Petersburg, Florida as a Cat 3 and then Wednesday 8am is over East Central Georgia as a tropical storm.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html

[x-y-no]

No, unfortunately I think it looks likely to go right across the island.

[kevin]

Alabama???

[Foladar]

the track has it going over the west area

[feederband]

if it is a clip it will be a big clip

[tdess02]

Anybody ever think that this could be an act of GOD?
This is not the first time that a storm has weakend before making landfall for no apparent reason. I had poste don a different board yesterday that I thought there was 3 options Ivan was going to do, all due to our GOD:

1)Ivan weakens to a CAT 1 before striking poor Florida again! (Likely)

2)Ivan moves East of Florida

3)Ivan moves west of Florida

We need to pray that wherever Ivan goes, it weakens first and that people have the ability and common sense to get out.