Ivan Advisories

[dhweather]

I believe that Jamacia is going to be hammered by
Ivan.

[Brent]

Alabama???

Should Be Georgia. Sorry.

[logybogy]

It brings Ivan down to 100 knots.

What is there is a synoptic basis for this or are the models on crack?

[meteorjosh]

if God has any viewpoint on this storm, I think he rather wants it to hit FL

[Stormcenter]

Read below. They are also still NOT 100% sold
on the Florida landfall scenario. INTERESTING.

visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern associated with
Ivan does not appear as well organized as it was yesterday.
However...there are plenty of banding features and well-established
outflow. You can see the convective ring associated with the
eyewall on high resolution visible images. Super rapid scan IR
images show the very strong convective ring currently re-developing
around the eye. Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the
surface pressure has risen to 934 mb but the flight level winds
remain at 144 knots. This supports an initial intensity of 125
knots. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Ivan moves
near or over Jamaica where the effects of the high terrain may
weaken the hurricane. It is possible that Ivan will re-strengthen
some between the Cayman Islands and Cuba where the ocean is quite
warm. Once in the Gulf of Mexico...the shear is forecast to
increase and Ivan should gradually weaken. Ivan is expected to
remain a dangerous hurricane until it reaches the United States.
The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at
10 knots...steered by the subtropical ridge over the Bahamas. As
the ridge weakens...the steering currents should weaken too...and
the hurricane will likely continue on a west-northwest to northwest
track with a decrease in forward speed. There is still high
confidence in this early portion of the forecast but...it becomes
uncertain after the hurricane crosses Cuba when guidance shows that
the hurricane could continue over the Gulf of Mexico or could turn
north-northeast over Florida. In fact...this has been the case for
the past couple of days. The official forecast does not favor one
scenario more than the other...and brings the hurricane northward
over the Gulf of Mexico very near and eventually over Florida.

Forecaster Avila

[feederband]

If it slowimg it will be worse for jamaca . But it could weaken it a bit .

[catzmeow]

Will y'all be posting a graphic of this projected track online?

[Brent]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

[meteorjosh]

not true, current advisory calls for a 115kt storm at landfall...which may be generous at this point...not because of shear but due to the storm's likely trajectory over a more eastern, and more mountainous area of Cuba

[Brent]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... ublic.html

[ColdWaterConch]

According to the discussion, they litterally have no idea where it is going after Cuba....Could go NNE or NE into FL, or up the coast.

[Nimbus]

Shear is a good thing! The track has been such that the eyewall would run along the south coast of Jamaica. Looks like maybe the upper level winds north of Ivan are getting squeezed south causing the shear. If there is a track direction change we will see it now that the eye is reemerging but remember Frances bucked shear for several days before changing direction.

[dhweather]

That NOGAPS loop is FL panhandle then Alabama.
Of course, the storm is large and GA will take it too, if NOGAPS is right.

[vbhoutex]

It appears that the entire island will get some of the eyewall. I would expect there to be little if any part of the island that will not experience winds in the Category 3 range at a minimum and more than likely most of it will experience Cat4 or above if the expected intensification happens prior to landfall.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Looks like it's going right down Main Street. When I got up and looked at the satellite this morning, I thought they might catch a break, but I guess not.

[c5Camille]

he did... look up the thread...

[Portastorm]

That IS interesting and it gave me the impression that the NHC experts are suggesting "hey, after Cuba, we are not all that sure where Ivan will go." I dunno, don't want to read too much into it ... but they keep stressing how the forecast beyond 48-72 hrs is highly uncertain.

[logybogy]

Nope, the current advisory has 100kt before landfall in FL.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... .disc.html

initial 10/1500z 16.5n 75.1w 125 kt
12hr VT 11/0000z 17.2n 76.5w 125 kt
24hr VT 11/1200z 18.3n 78.0w 115 kt near Jamaica
36hr VT 12/0000z 19.2n 79.0w 120 kt
48hr VT 12/1200z 20.5n 80.2w 125 kt approaching Cuba
72hr VT 13/1200z 23.5n 82.0w 110 kt
96hr VT 14/1200z 28.0n 83.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 15/1200z 32.5n 82.5w 40 kt inland

[Lockhart]

One thing we can read into it is that Miami seems slightly safer. Happily, they forcast only 100 Kts before landfall.

[Stormcenter]

Nope, the current advisory has 100kt before landfall in FL.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... .disc.html

initial 10/1500z 16.5n 75.1w 125 kt
12hr VT 11/0000z 17.2n 76.5w 125 kt
24hr VT 11/1200z 18.3n 78.0w 115 kt near Jamaica
36hr VT 12/0000z 19.2n 79.0w 120 kt
48hr VT 12/1200z 20.5n 80.2w 125 kt approaching Cuba
72hr VT 13/1200z 23.5n 82.0w 110 kt
96hr VT 14/1200z 28.0n 83.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 15/1200z 32.5n 82.5w 40 kt inland

This could be the "miracle" everyone was hoping for.