Frances Advisories

[Aquawind]

Yeow..Looking healthy alrighty..the dry air ahead doesn't seem to be bothering Frances much..

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040826 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040826 1200 040827 0000 040827 1200 040828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 44.3W 14.0N 47.1W 15.2N 49.7W 16.3N 51.8W
BAMM 12.8N 44.3W 14.1N 47.0W 15.4N 49.5W 16.5N 51.6W
A98E 12.8N 44.3W 13.6N 47.2W 14.3N 50.1W 15.3N 52.7W
LBAR 12.8N 44.3W 14.1N 47.0W 15.4N 49.5W 16.3N 51.6W
SHIP 60KTS 75KTS 86KTS 93KTS
DSHP 60KTS 75KTS 86KTS 93KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040828 1200 040829 1200 040830 1200 040831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 53.7W 18.3N 56.5W 18.5N 59.4W 19.0N 62.3W
BAMM 17.4N 53.5W 18.3N 56.3W 18.6N 59.2W 19.3N 62.1W
A98E 16.3N 55.0W 17.1N 59.5W 16.1N 63.8W 13.9N 67.7W
LBAR 17.1N 53.5W 17.5N 56.4W 17.2N 59.9W 18.3N 63.6W
SHIP 98KTS 103KTS 97KTS 90KTS
DSHP 98KTS 103KTS 97KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 44.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 38.3W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 65NM RD34SE =

At 11 AM it will be a 70 mph storm with 990 mbs moving WNW 285 at15kt.

[jlauderdal]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040826 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040826 1200 040827 0000 040827 1200 040828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.8N 44.3W 14.0N 47.1W 15.2N 49.7W 16.3N 51.8W
BAMM 12.8N 44.3W 14.1N 47.0W 15.4N 49.5W 16.5N 51.6W
A98E 12.8N 44.3W 13.6N 47.2W 14.3N 50.1W 15.3N 52.7W
LBAR 12.8N 44.3W 14.1N 47.0W 15.4N 49.5W 16.3N 51.6W
SHIP 60KTS 75KTS 86KTS 93KTS
DSHP 60KTS 75KTS 86KTS 93KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040828 1200 040829 1200 040830 1200 040831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.2N 53.7W 18.3N 56.5W 18.5N 59.4W 19.0N 62.3W
BAMM 17.4N 53.5W 18.3N 56.3W 18.6N 59.2W 19.3N 62.1W
A98E 16.3N 55.0W 17.1N 59.5W 16.1N 63.8W 13.9N 67.7W
LBAR 17.1N 53.5W 17.5N 56.4W 17.2N 59.9W 18.3N 63.6W
SHIP 98KTS 103KTS 97KTS 90KTS
DSHP 98KTS 103KTS 97KTS 90KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 44.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 41.4W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 38.3W
WNDCUR = 60KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 990MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 65NM RD34SE =

At 11 AM it will be a 70 mph storm with 990 mbs moving WNW 285 at15kt.

Interseting that bam bam's keep it in the 20/60. That track from 48 hours ago is turning looking like a big pile of garbage.

[Aquawind]

Still nothing above 20N...ugh..guess were gonna have to wait until after a it's a Cane for a couple of model runs before the official track makes any big changes..

[Dean4Storms]

These tropical models, at least BAMM, BAMD and LBAR should do fairly well with this situation for the near future (out 5-6 days). We are dealing mostly with a subtropical ridge and the possible weakness caused by troughs in the northern Atlantic to that ridge to a TC in the tropical Atlantic. These models should initialize and progg this scenario fairly well. This is exactly what they were designed to forecast and does not get too complicated with the upstream westerlies yet.

[Guest]

TD #6 which I believe it is right now regardless will NOT get grabbed by the trough IMO. I disagree with Derek as I don't agree with #2 option either I think this eventually strengthens and heads towards the Carribean.

First call panned out rather well, and now she is looking like a legitimate threat to the US early next week. Will be intresting to see how strong this ridge turns out to be.. I'm thinking it a more west heading than wnw for awhile .. we shall see..

[cycloneye]

I see a more threat now for the northern leeward islands as I doesn't appears by looking at the movement that it is gaining much latitud.Also an eye feature pops out and goes away.

[Brent]

WOW!!!!

[Brent]

NHC track is too far north... AGAIN.

Ugh

[MWatkins]

...This is of course unofficial and my forecast/opinion only...please consult NHC products for official information...

The satellite presentation of Frances continues to improve this morning. Latest visible images suggest that a banding-type eye is developing...with warm spot starting to appear in infrared imagery as well near the center of the convective envelope. If Frances is not a hurricane now...it will become shortly.

The initial motion is estimated to be 285/15...which is a little faster than what was estimated 12 hours ago. The faster speed suggests that the steering currents are not currently breaking down as much as has been anticipated so far by the models...however...Frances should be able to gain some latitude over the next 2 or 3 days as a mid-layer trough sinks far enough down to begin to exert some influence...although I am still a little skeptical that the system will slow as much as the guidance suggests given it's refusal to do so up until now. After that time...the global models continue to insist that a warm ridge will begin to rebuild across the western Atlantic. Because the models have been tending to the west run after run...and given that there are no synoptic features that are expected to develop that could pick up Frances and move it out...the forecast track is along the south side of the guidance envelope and very close to...but just to the north of the GFS solution.

The tropical storm remains in a very favorable environment for strengthening. NOAA buoys along and in front of the system suggest that water temperatures will remain in the 82F to 83F range for the next few days and SST analysis shows that temps will continue to warm along the forecast track. The cyclone should remain tucked beneath anticyclonic flow aloft...and as a result Frances is expected to become a major hurricane by the end of this forecast period. Some leveling off of intensity is noted in days 4 and 5 due to uncertainty in what will happen with the upper flow as the hurricane is handed off to the ridge...but of course...there remains the potential that Frances could be stronger than shown here by the end of the forecast period. Of course...on this track the system could come close to Puerto Rico...but please remember that the average forecast error in 5 days is 300 nautical miles.

0 0826 12Z 12.8 44.3
12 0827 00Z 13.6 47.3
24 0827 12Z 14.3 50.1
36 0828 00Z 15.1 52.6
48 0828 12Z 16.2 55.0
72 0829 00Z 17.7 58.7
96 0830 00Z 18.8 61.8
120 0831 00Z 20.0 66.0

MW 08261305Z

[dixiebreeze]

Aqua, the NHC seems to think that shear is negligible in the overall scenario. I thought at first it might be inhibiting, but apparently not. She's lookin' good!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Better defined is definitely an understatement with Tropical Storm Frances. It may even become a minimal hurricane as early as 11 AM EDT this morning. With the appearance of an eye from time to time this morning and great outflow, we definitely got ourselves a potentially dangerous hurricane to come over the next several days. The track is also looking threatening for folks along the eastern seaboard as a trough over the central Atlantic tries to lift up, hence a subtropical high could become better established over the central Atlantic and be positioned north of the tropical cyclone. As a result of this, after a west northwest and northwest track over the next 3-4 days, a further westward track could potentially occur later in the forecast beyond 4 days. Should this actually occur, it could get real interesting later next week and into the Labor Day Weekend for the eastern seaboard.

Jim

[dixiebreeze]

Sounds like a keeper, Mike. Good forecast.

[OuterBanker]

I voted for the Gulf only because I seriously doubt that Frances is going to be a fish. It's going to strike the US coast somewhere. I just don't want it to be us again. 2004 already has been memorable for Fl and NC. I'm afraid that this year may be the one Gray and all the others were afraid of. I really hope I'm wrong.

[c5Camille]

i think it's going to become cat5 and hit miami... then back out
and still cat 5 hit jacksoneville... head southwest and emerge
in the gulf as a cat2 but quicky regain cat 5 status. Then go to
new orleans cat5... then back up into the gulf... still cat5... goes
to houston and rakes the coast down to corpus then back into the
gulf.. still cat5... then heads strait for tampa... but at the last moment
it swerves south and comes ashore near ft myers... after that...
i have know idea... it's hard to forcast beyond 2 weeks...

[Stormchaser16]

Wonderful prediction, i believe everyone should run to the bank with that one

[TS Zack]

I would say winds will be upped to 70mph.

[c5Camille]

you're just mad because i didn't forcast NW Jersey

[x-y-no]

Better defined is definitely an understatement with Tropical Storm Frances. It may even become a minimal hurricane as early as 11 AM EDT this morning.

Yeah. No kidding.

The track is also looking threatening for folks along the eastern. ...

Obviously, it's way too early to call this, and I'm not about to totally dismiss a more southerly scenario. But I've got a gut feeling about the Carolinas for this storm. The ridge is going to build back, but I have a hard time seeing it build back strong enough to push the storm across the Florida peninsula.

That and 50 cents will buy you a cup of coffee.

[Stormchaser16]

Who said i was mad? I found your little forecast quite entertaining after a good cup of COFFEE in the morning......