Ivan Advisories

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[Stormtrack03]

I'm waiting to see what the next few vortex messages say about Ivan, I'm sure they will indicate stronger winds to support the 2 pm adv.

[Stormcenter]

I have heard from a very good source that the FSU Super Ensemble Computer has never called for a track west of Pensacola.. In fact if anything it is 200 + miles to the right of Pensacola..

Confidence in the panhandle forecast is eroding with time as the pattern evolves

Did you read the 11am NHC discusssion? They was never a mention of
a FL. panhandle landfall. They still "think" it's going to make landfall somewhere along the Florida coast but they also said there is still uncertainty after Ivan comes off of Cuba. Please raed below.

it becomes
uncertain after the hurricane crosses Cuba when guidance shows that
the hurricane could continue over the Gulf of Mexico or could turn
north-northeast over Florida. In fact...this has been the case for
the past couple of days. The official forecast does not favor one
scenario more than the other...and brings the hurricane northward
over the Gulf of Mexico very near and eventually over Florida.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

thanks for that analogy!

[rainstorm]

i thought all the models were turning ivan east?

[Indystorm]

The notation eastern quad does not make sense to me. Eastern half, yes. NE or SE Quad, yes.

[yoda]

We will see what the 18z trops say on there...

[rainstorm]

more cheerleading? lets all hope it gets zapped to nothing by its shear to the north

[Weatherboy1]

It's funny, but yesterday, it seemed most of the models were starting to converge on SW FL or the tip of S FL. Today, most of them are converging on a Big Bend/E Panhandle type hit (i.e. The GFS is further west, the NOGAPS and CMC are further east, and the UKMET is further west, as is the GFDL).

I guess the moral to this story is, even model convergence on a landfall point doesn't necessarily mean anything. Yesterday, I was more and more confident this would be a significant weather event (albeit not a direct hit) here in SE FL. Today, it looks like that's completely wrong and folks in W FL or the Panhandle will have to deal with Ivan. I'll have to see what tomorrow brings, but things are looking much better by the hour down here.

Also, note this bit of information from the 2:05 TWD. That's probably what is helping nudge the models further westward (and Ivan ... which appears to have wobbled back to the west)

THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...NOW STATIONARY...IS QUICKLY WEAKENING ALONG 31N84W
27N97W WITH A DRIER AIR MASS TO THE N NOT REALLY BEING ABLE TO
SPREAD ANY FARTHER S. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXTENDING SW OF THE LOUISIANA COAST BUT THIS
FEATURE HAS BEEN STOPPED IN ITS TRACKS BY A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS CNTRL FLORIDA AND THE E GULF. MUCH DRIER AIR
HAS FILTERED ACROSS THE NW GULF NEAR THE TROF...BUT THIS TOO HAS
BEEN STOPPED IN ITS TRACKS WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE HOLDING ITS
OWN ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA.

[rtd2]

qoute"Did you read the 11am NHC discusssion? They was never a mention of
a FL. panhandle landfall. They still "think" it's going to make landfall somewhere along the Florida coast but they also said there is still uncertainty after Ivan comes off of Cuba. Please raed below. "





NOPE sticking with nt original track....N.O. TO P'COLA ... Posted yesturday about these "public" models screwing up in early runs on Ridges ect. and thier strength... as in fraces YOU WILL see track sloooowly come back west so near @ L/F offical track will be correct...no matter how many times its changed!

[justwatching]

I could be way out to lunch but, imo, the weakening is due to the rotating low ne of ivan and the jet stream leading to that low.
The jet stream is going against the rotation and sweeping up the moisture and not allowing ivan to build up and rotate a complete revolution with its outer bands.

You watch a 30 frame loop and when a band does sneak around and complete a revolution it instantly builds up but then it gets swept up by the jet stream and sucked into the low . If and when the low/jet stream move, weak or disapear is when Ivan will,imo, rapidly grow.

Is this the shearing people have been talking about with the jet stream going against the hurricane rotation? Like I said I could be way out to lunch or just using improper terms(ie. jet stream) to describe something. But it seems the low has been pumping the moisture/energy out of ivan for over a day now.

[cycloneye]

http://weather.net-waves.com/td09.php

They hook to the NE around FT Myers.

[TyphoonTim]

They keep coming west!

Latest models seem to show only the GFDL moving west??

The rest seem to be moving east.

[Stormcenter]

http://weather.net-waves.com/td09.php

They hook to the NE around FT Myers.

I guess Ivan is not listening to the models it looks
like he's decide to hook back to the left.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[yoda]

Hmm... now this gets interesting. The NHC track at 5 will be most interesting because:

1.) The GFDL and UKMET are in NEAR agreement (around same area)
2.) The GFS and the other trop models are basically the same (I don't know what the 12z GFS did... so I know I will be wrong on this point..) in taking Ivan out into the Atlantic
3.) The ECMWF for 6 straight runs took Ivan over S FL.. and then up the EC into the Carolinas (checking the new 12z ECMWF as I write)
4.) We will have to see what the globals say...

I know I made some good points there.. but I know some of the points I just made are probably wrong... Feel free to comment or correct me..

[Stormcenter]

Well folks please explain to me to me why Ivan "looks"
like he will easily past south of Jamaica even though he
supposed to being heading wnw at 295 to 300? If he was
heading that direction he would be traveling right over Jamaica?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[calidoug]

"severely" disrupted?

I don't think so. It may not be cherry red on IR, but it's not bad.

It's been strengthening for the past couple hours, based on IR and Vis presentation.

[das8929]

Yep, hes pulling a Frances! And theres alot of circumstances that are very coincidental that what happened to Frances. Like people saying that its looking better, but its actually weakening. Theres no going back to Cat 5. I expect steady weakening.

[Air Force Met]

The only thing the upper low to the NE of Ivan is doing is enhancing the outflow. Shear is only a factor to intensification when it impacts the core of the storm...the CDO. When it is on the outside...near the outer bands...it makes little difference at all. Matter of fact...thunderstorms on the outer edge of a hurricane are always getting sheared...mostly form the outflow from the CDO.

[yoda]

And whaddya know? The 12z ECMWF takes Ivan into the Panahndle of FL.. however when day 5-7 come... Ivan is slowing down to a near stall per 12z ECMWF...