Frances Advisories

[Stephanie]

Dean - do think that she'll weaken anymore? Did the dry slot affect her and is it going to influence her much longer?

[Stormcenter]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

Im glad to see you have backed away from that unrealistic track yesterday, however i still believe you are still too far west. taking a look at the upper level flow in about 48 hours, i just dont see it moving that far out in the gulf. instead, i believe a consensus of the tropical model suite is a pretty good picture of my thinking currently. or if you want, very similiar to the the 12z gfdl taking frances inland somewhere between melbourne and daytona then moving her solidly northwest after that with a gradual turn to the north and possibly just east of north at the end of the period. this imo is a major flooding event for the interior southeast, including Ga, eastern Tn, western carolinas, and possibly extreme eastern alabama. Frances in my view will never make it back into the gulf and i fairly confidant about that.

Well doesn't look like she is in any rush to go anywhere (N,NW,NE, or whatever) soon so all bets could be off if she stalls for a long period of time. Though I think some the models predicted this on Tuesday so it should not come as a surprise.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

Im glad to see you have backed away from that unrealistic track yesterday, however i still believe you are still too far west. taking a look at the upper level flow in about 48 hours, i just dont see it moving that far out in the gulf. instead, i believe a consensus of the tropical model suite is a pretty good picture of my thinking currently. or if you want, very similiar to the the 12z gfdl taking frances inland somewhere between melbourne and daytona then moving her solidly northwest after that with a gradual turn to the north and possibly just east of north at the end of the period. this imo is a major flooding event for the interior southeast, including Ga, eastern Tn, western carolinas, and possibly extreme eastern alabama. Frances in my view will never make it back into the gulf and i fairly confidant about that.

Well doesn't look like she is in any rush to go anywhere (N,NW,NE, or whatever) soon so all bets could be off if she stalls for a long period of time. Though I think some the models predicted this on Tuesday so it should come as a surprise.

I AGREE!

[Derek Ortt]

it;ll still be somewhat into the GOM due to the 500mb ridge intensifying. The UL low is what will shear the system, but the 500mb flow is what will steer it. The way the ridge is setting up, this almost has to go into the extreme NE GOM, since the geostrophic wind flow parallel to the height contours

[Lowpressure]

Concensus seems to have shifted more northerly.

[Stormcenter]

it;ll still be somewhat into the GOM due to the 500mb ridge intensifying. The UL low is what will shear the system, but the 500mb flow is what will steer it. The way the ridge is setting up, this almost has to go into the extreme NE GOM, since the geostrophic wind flow parallel to the height contours

Derek what happens if she stalls for a long (24 hours or more) period of time?

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 031235
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/1235Z
B. 25 DEG 24 MIN N
76 DEG 26 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2731 M
D. 45 KT
E. 227 DEG 010 NM
F. 329 DEG 68 KT
G. 228 DEG 033 NM
H. 959 MB
I. 10 C/ 3066 M
J. 17 C/ 3071 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW-NE
M. C40
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF861 2106A FRANCES OB 14
MAX FL WIND 89 KT SE QUAD 1042Z. MAX FL TEMP 18C 228/007NM
FROM FL CNTR.

Pressure is still rising, but the supplementary vortex message shows winds at flight level of 104kts...

URNT14 KNHC 031308
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01242 10778 13096 10807 33060
02243 20776 23038 21206 32059
03245 30774 33013 31010 31056
04247 40773 43984 41109 32060
05249 50771 53940 51310 32064
06251 60769 63872 61411 33061
07252 70766 73792 71711 31057
MF250 M0769 MF068
OBS 01 AT 1204Z
OBS 07 AT 1231Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
01256 10763 13776 11313 13069
02258 20761 23868 21212 14077
03259 30759 33951 31010 13104
04261 40757 43006 41010 13090
05263 50755 53047 50909 13078
06265 60753 63076 60808 12074
07266 70751 73090 70706 12073
MF259 M0759 MF104
OBS 01 AT 1239Z
OBS 07 AT 1307Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 11065
RMK AF861 2106A FRANCES OB 20

[Anonymous]

Continues to look like a North WPB landfall...between Jupiter and Stuart...but should be only slightly stronger than Irene (Cat 1) from 1999

[Derek Ortt]

same link as before http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


Ivan is coming soon, just have been waiting for the ATCF to update. You wont like the ivan forecast

[canegrl04]

Looks like she ran out of gas from that long trip across the Atlantic. She may be a cat.1 by the time she makes landfall

[indwind]

Frances is falling fast. Faltering Free Fuel? Freaky Frictional Forces?
Frenetic Forward Fringe? Fried Frontal Fuse? Who knows........

[Hyperstorm]

That last comment there about the maximum temperature (18C) being away from the flight-level center indicates shear...

[Dean4Storms]

Dean - do think that she'll weaken anymore? Did the dry slot affect her and is it going to influence her much longer?

Hey Steph.... I wouldn't expect her to weaken too much more as the convection seems to be holding it's own around the center. I think as a weaker storm that she could come under the influence of the ridge's westward push more readily though. Had she remained a 135-145mph 940 mbish Cat. 4 she would have probably driven the ridge out of her way so to speak. I think she is slowing more than they expected as she is running into this ridge as a weaker storm, also this could allow her to come under it's influence more easily. We will see.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like she ran out of gas from that long trip across the Atlantic. She may be a cat.1 by the time she makes landfall

Don't write her off just yet she's got alot of very warm water ahead her still.

[guanaskip]

Ditto. Many of us on the board have friends/property/etc in Abaco. Any updates appreciated

[ncweatherwizard]

I should have just gone with what I had expected in previous forecasts...better be on the safe side. Frances is definitely down to a Category 2 hurricane by now, although, we all know NHC will be reluctant to downgrade, understandably so no one will let their guard down too early. This shear is monsterous right now, and is really starting to rip apart the system. The pressure is starting to increase as expected, and it won't be long before all this gets to the inner core--which is really fighting off the shear well for now. But another 24 hours of this shear, and the core may begin to collapse. It's not impossible that we'll have a tropical storm tomorrow--although I do have my majority doubts with this. For now, expect pressures to increase roughly into the 970s today.

[x-y-no]

Actually, she looks to be improving magrinally right now. The outflow to the SW is improving and she's getting some more convection in that quadrant.

No sign of an eye popping out again yet - maybe this afternoon.

I'm having a tough time judging her direction of movement - very slowly NW I think, but I can't swear to it. It looks like the center of circulation is a little north of Eleuthra now, probably at about 25N.

There's still good prospect that this could intensify a fair amount before landfall. OTOH, I wouldn't be shocked to see her down to a Cat 2 at the 11AM advisory, although they may do the same thing they did at 8AM and keep her a little stronger officially than they really believed out of respect for the likelihood of some intensification.

I'm feeling pretty comfortable for Dade County, and even Broward, although even more obviously with this storm than with most things can change to confound the guidance.

Derek Ortt's forecast, which has been pretty steady for days now, looks very, very plausible to me.

[Cyclone Runner]

I just noticed the Abaco Message Board has crashed. Either too much traffic or perhaps storm took it out.

[Ziplock48]

I read in an Advisory (somewhere) a one time mention that Hispanola may be inhibiting INFLOW to the SW of the Hurricane. Id you back up the imagery and look at where Frances was when she began to struggle, it does look as if the inflow could have been restricted by the mountains, which are up to 10,000 feet high.

Just one more factor to consider. I agree that we do need to get a much better handle on intensity forcasting.

I, for one, believe that the dry air entrainment did contribute to some weakening. It looked like the dry air was coming from the tongue of high pressure extending from the NE to SW over the penninsula of Florida.

I am also very concerned that the Guldstream will actr as an energy pump to the remneants of the once powerful storm. NEVER underestimate the power of the ocean. The Gulfstream carries a huge amount of heat energy....think about it...it keep the climate of the British Isles moderate in the winter. If an ocean current can warm a nation thousands of miles away, think about what it can do for a storm stalled right over the warm and deep current off the coast of florida?. Also, the Gulfstream moves at a speed of up to 4 kts. This brings "new" warm water under the storm. she can stand still, and still have a steady supply of warm water!

Upwelling. Please take a look at the bahamas! The waters among the ilslands are very shallow. So shallow that boats must have modified designs (shallow draft) in orger to not run aground!. We are talking depts in many large expanses of 4-12'. Barely 2 fathoms! Offshore, there ARE some of the deepest waters this side of the Pacific...the "Wall" drops to 5,000' off of Andros Island.

But then, the Gulfstream runs between Bahamas and Florida!

So, if Hurricanes are giant heat engines, then Frances may be about to visit the fuel depot to end all...the Gulf Stream.

Do not write her off, yet, folks.
Zip
Whew...I feel better after having my annual Gulfstream rant!

[jlauderdal]

I should have just gone with what I had expected in previous forecasts...better be on the safe side. Frances is definitely down to a Category 2 hurricane by now, although, we all know NHC will be reluctant to downgrade, understandably so no one will let their guard down too early. This shear is monsterous right now, and is really starting to rip apart the system. The pressure is starting to increase as expected, and it won't be long before all this gets to the inner core--which is really fighting off the shear well for now. But another 24 hours of this shear, and the core may begin to collapse. It's not impossible that we'll have a tropical storm tomorrow--although I do have my majority doubts with this. For now, expect pressures to increase roughly into the 970s today.

this prediction is about as accurate as your previous frances forecast. we will see how it plays out.