#3428 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:47 am
Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 3, 2004 8:30 a.m.
Hurricane Frances, as of 8 A.M. EDT, is centered at 25.3 north and 76.4 west, over the island of Eleuthera, and 260 miles east southeast of the lower Florida east coast. Frances is moving toward the west-northwest at 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 120 mph. This makes Frances a strong category 3 hurricane. San salvador in the Bahamas reported a wind gust of 120 mph late Thursday afternoon. Eleuthera reported sustained winds of near 100 mph this morning. The central pressure within the hurricane is 957 millibars (28.26 inches). A hurricane warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas. A hurricane warning also remains in effect for the Florida east coast, from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys, from south of Florida City, to the Seven Mile Bridge, including Florida Bay.
Note that Frances has changed in intensity since yesterday, weakening to a category 3 hurricane; but that is still a major hurricane. Also note that the forward speed has slowed. We expect landfall on the Florida coast, between Melbourne and West Palm Beach Sunday morning. The strength of the guiding ridge, or high to the north will again be key; there is some room for a turn that would have the hurricane parallel the coast, even head toward the Carolinas. A stronger high to the north would take Frances across the peninsula, toward southwest Georgia. Frances will likely undergo fluctuations up to the time of landfall; re- strengthening is not of the question, particularly as it encounters the Gulf Stream waters.
The slow movement of this hurricane means torrential, flooding rains, over a longer time period; first in its path in Florida, then farther inland, depending upon its ultimate track.
As for conditions at the point of and just north of landfall, we expect 100 mph sustained winds, gusts to 130 mph or higher, a storm surge of 9-12 feet, and 10-20 inches of rainfall in the path of Frances. Tornadoes will become a concern, as well, in some of the outer bands, and in the east quadrant of the storm, once it does get inland.
The strong tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde islands has become Tropical Storm Ivan. As of 5 am AST Tropical Storm Ivan was located near 10.0 north and 30.7 west or about 610 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph and the depression is moving west near 16 mph. Current forecast tracks by model output show this system tracking nearly due west for the next several days then turning northwest. Some longer range model output is suggesting this system will move into Hispaniola late next week then into the Bahamas next weekend. Until this system develops further this is mostly speculation. But it is possible another tropical cyclone could threaten the southeast U.S. in about 10 days.
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