Ivan Advisories

[lilbump3000]

I know its possible but i highly doubt that ivan will go inland exactly were charley went in.

[B-Bear]

Only if the mountains follow him across the Gulf.

[hurricanedude]

get his act together...good god man hes a strong cat 4...what else ya want???

[calidoug]

DT, yes, I agree on the "Jamaica effect"

[B-Bear]

get his act together...good god man hes a strong cat 4...what else ya want???

Perfection. We demand it from our hurricanes.

[meteorjosh]

hhhmmm...a Cat 7?
actually, looks like he once again has a nice tight eyewall, with some good clearing going on in the eye
when do we get our next recon?
that flattened NW quad is pretty interesting, I like the idea about some downsloping off the spine of jamaica

[rbaker]

yes jamaica is a big enough island with 7000 ft mountains to disrupt flow for awhile until it gets over the caymans, which is always prime fuel for hurricanes

[calidoug]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Also looks stronger.

[Fodie77]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 34


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2004


...Ivan expected to hit Jamaica tonight...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the
Dominican Republic westward...including Port au Prince.

A Hurricane Watch is effect for Cuba including the Isle of
Youth...and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the
South Coast of eastern Cuba from Cabo cruz to Santiago de Cuba.

Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near
latitude 17.0 north...longitude 76.2 west or about 80 miles... 130
km...south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph...20 km/hr with
a gradual decrease in forward speed. This motion is expected to
bring the core of Ivan to near or over Jamaica tonight or early
Saturday and over the Cayman Islands late Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph...220
km/hr...with higher gusts. Stronger winds...especially in
gusts...are likely over elevated terrain. Some fluctuations in
intensity are likely during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles... 95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter plane
was 937 mb...27.67 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
path of Ivan.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...17.0 N... 76.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140
mph. Minimum central pressure... 937 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

[btsgmdad]

The Caymans feed hurricanes the way Hispanola eats them.

[NorthGaWeather]

get his act together...good god man hes a strong cat 4...what else ya want???

Perfection. We demand it from our hurricanes.

LOL.

Nothing less than perfection will be accepted.

[Fodie77]

Hurricane Ivan Discussion Number 34


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2004



there has been no significant changes in the intensity or track of
Ivan today. The hurricane has a distinct eye within a large central
dense overcast and plenty of banding features. The outflow remains
well established primarily to the west. The pressure has been
oscillating during the day and the last reading from a
reconnaissance plane was 937 mb. Initial intensity is adjusted to
120 knots based on wind data from the reconnaissance plane. Some
fluctuations in intensity are likely before Ivan moves near or over
Jamaica where the effects of the high terrain may weaken the
hurricane. It is possible that Ivan will re-strengthen some between
the Cayman Islands and Cuba where there is a very high oceanic heat
content and the shear is expected to remain weak. Once in the Gulf
of Mexico...the shear is forecast to increase and Ivan should
gradually weaken. However...Ivan is expected to remain a dangerous
hurricane until it reaches the United States.

The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at
11 knots steered by a persistent subtropical ridge over the
Bahamas. As the ridge weakens...and a trough develops in the Gulf of
Mexico...the hurricane will likely turn more to the northwest with
a decrease in forward speed. The forecast remains uncertain after
the hurricane crosses Cuba. However...models are becoming in better
agreement on a track across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although
the official forecast could have been shifted a little westward due
to the new guidance...it is not prudent to make a change at this
time. The official forecast is now basically to the right of the
guidance envelope...and keeps the hurricane on a northward track
very close to the Florida West Coast.

Forecaster Avila

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 10/2100z 17.0n 76.2w 120 kt
12hr VT 11/0600z 17.7n 77.5w 115 kt near Jamaica
24hr VT 11/1800z 18.8n 78.7w 120 kt
36hr VT 12/0600z 19.9n 79.8w 125 kt
48hr VT 12/1800z 21.3n 81.1w 130 kt nearing Cuba
72hr VT 13/1800z 24.7n 82.7w 110 kt
96hr VT 14/1800z 29.0n 83.5w 100 kt
120hr VT 15/1800z 34.0n 83.5w 30 kt...inland


$$

[btsgmdad]

Not a surprise at all. However, the storm has been trying its hardest to strengthen all day. I'm really afraid of what happens once it clears Jamaica.

[calidoug]

Super cold tops now...

Jamaica is screwed. (pardon my french)

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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Fodie77]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

5-day map

[Stormcenter]

I know its possible but i highly doubt that ivan will go inland exactly were charley went in.

I agree lilbump3000.

In my opionion Ivan will make landfall somewhere
along the Florida panhandle as 100 mph hurricane.
But as always thing can and will probably change.

[meteorjosh]

let me get this straight...so according to NHC pressure annd wind are dropping simultaneously?
I think what they really mean is that they overestimated windspeeds at 11am and 2pm

[quickychick]

THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AFTER
THE HURRICANE CROSSES CUBA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BECOMING IN BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DUE
TO THE NEW GUIDANCE...IT IS NOT PRUDENT TO MAKE A CHANGE AT THIS
TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW BASICALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

Interesting.

[B-Bear]

It almost sounded like they were backing off their expectation for "heavy shear" in the GOM, didn't it?

[SouthernWx]

I know its possible but i highly doubt that ivan will go inland exactly were charley went in.

On September 25th, 1848....a powerful 130 mph hurricane slammed into Tampa Bay. Only three weeks later, another major hurricane packing 120 mph sustained winds struck the same area....Tampa/ St Pete. There are many examples of coastal areas being impacted by more than one significant hurricane in the same season.....Bertha and Fran into Wilmington, NC in 1996....Hilda and Janet into Tampico, Mexico in 1955.....Carol and Edna into southern New England 1954.

While at this range (84-96 hours), the model guidance could shift left or right (and IMO probably will)....landfall IMO could occur as far west as Apalachee Bay and as far east as Miami-Fort Lauderdale...but at the current time, the Charlotte Harbor area (between Sarasota and Fort Myers) appears to be the highest probability area for landfall.